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Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

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Widespread gales, gusts to 80mph, heavy rain and large waves mentioned in #StormCiara forecast. Blanket yellow warning across the UK, as a head's up. More detail will follow with amber warnings possible.

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WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

The list of storm names for 2019 2020 season and how #NameourStorms works. Who chooses the names? Low pressures with the potential to bring severe weather, usually wind but can be rain or snow.

 

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FEb04windMOwe2.png

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Unusual to see the whole of the UK covered by strong winds.If it stays like that then even London could be seeing 55-60 mph gusts.The max gusts might not be that unusual but the widespread nature of them could bring a lot of disruption.

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1 hour ago, Ross90 said:

Unusual to see the whole of the UK covered by strong winds.If it stays like that then even London could be seeing 55-60 mph gusts.The max gusts might not be that unusual but the widespread nature of them could bring a lot of disruption.

It's possible it may stay like that, but more often that not, an early blanket warning highlights the uncertainty of the exact positioning of the low pressure.

The forecast wind gusts for here on Sunday top 63mph. That's the highest i've seen for a long time! Also, 12 hours+ of above 50mph gusts.

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This the is gfs take this evening. I'm not concerned on looking at specific wind speeds at the moment because forecasting accurately the intensity and track of this rapid cyclogenisis is tricky even at this range so adjustments are likely in the next day or two. Suffice it to say at the moment it's going to be very windy

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-1228000.thumb.png.b8bb1b6d69562e87fdfd11e35650fd82.png78.thumb.png.1e9b74b59159767b644364b74bef0483.png84.thumb.png.235d8f3eba4ee6c0b1ea89eb969117df.png96.thumb.png.72380615d32906ad25150f7ae65661e9.png102.thumb.png.36c8f9f31e0dd2fbea24cc6f3fcc56c5.png

Edited by knocker
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Storm Ciara: Llanelli Half Marathon postponed due to weather fears

Quote

 

A half marathon has been postponed for a month due to "extremely challenging" weather forecasts, organisers said. The Llanelli Half Marathon was due to take place on Sunday, but has been put back until 8 March. A Met Office yellow weather warning for wind has been issued for all of Wales from 18:00 GMT on Saturday until midnight on Sunday.

The forecaster said there is a "slight chance" that power cuts may occur and that travel delays are expected. BBC Wales meteorologist Derek Brockway said the weather was due to Storm Ciara. He said the conditions would be worse on Sunday: "Wind gusts in Llanelli could be over 60mph (97km/h) on the coast." "They made the right decision," he added.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51388584

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Sensible decision by the SWPL. My team Saltash are down at Falmouth, so I hope they move it forward...

 

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4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

It's possible it may stay like that, but more often that not, an early blanket warning highlights the uncertainty of the exact positioning of the low pressure.

The forecast wind gusts for here on Sunday top 63mph. That's the highest i've seen for a long time! Also, 12 hours+ of above 50mph gusts.

I have noticed over the last few years that we never seemed to manage to get much over 50mph in recent storms so maybe this one could change that?

I say this as quite a few models show inland areas getting gusts topping around 60mph, so it would be about 10mph stronger then what we have had in previous storms.

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The ecm with same time scale as the gfs above

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-1228000.thumb.png.c8cbe79d0e6d80d117ffef0960e8c056.png78.thumb.png.044f8fadce7f123ad8cabb5ce158ffe8.png84.thumb.png.a1ee1eeda698f8c5aa147445b30f1ecc.png96.thumb.png.c7efd8916530aad0051bbb72483b6cac.png102.thumb.png.f54f7848f2b0d9c8d23b0363bd6c14ae.png

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11 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

I have noticed over the last few years that we never seemed to manage to get much over 50mph in recent storms so maybe this one could change that?

I say this as quite a few models show inland areas getting gusts topping around 60mph, so it would be about 10mph stronger then what we have had in previous storms.

The forecasts have been quite consistent in wind speeds over the past few days, so I think it's going to be a notable period of weather. I'm waiting on some new fence panels and posts for the garden, so the wind may do me a favour on Sunday. ?

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23 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

I have noticed over the last few years that we never seemed to manage to get much over 50mph in recent storms so maybe this one could change that?

I say this as quite a few models show inland areas getting gusts topping around 60mph, so it would be about 10mph stronger then what we have had in previous storms.

This winter has been very quiet and we have to go back to last March where had a sustained Windy spell. The recent trend has been that strong winds have be confined to five minute spell while the cold front goes through which for me does not make a storm. A morning or afternoon is more what I call a storm. At present our local forecast shows only a couple of hours with winds getting into the mid 50's while another forecast shows six hours of winds into the mid fifties. So who knows what is going to happen. The only thing I noticed is a slight downgrade tonight which is the normal way things go.

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13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

This winter has been very quiet and we have to go back to last March where had a sustained Windy spell. The recent trend has been that strong winds have be confined to five minute spell while the cold front goes through which for me does not make a storm. A morning or afternoon is more what I call a storm. At present our local forecast shows only a couple of hours with winds getting into the mid 50's while another forecast shows six hours of winds into the mid fifties. So who knows what is going to happen. The only thing I noticed is a slight downgrade tonight which is the normal way things go.

I know its funny really because I said to some of the members over at the model thread yesterday that the lows would probably get downgraded as time goes on as they always have done in the past but barely anyone agreed with me.

This evening the models show the beginning of downgrades but hopefully its just a blip and they will ramp up the lows again to give us something of a middle ground in terms of wind gusts e.g. not typical 50mph or devastating 100mph but a different 60mph or 70mph perhaps.

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3 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

I know its funny really because I said to some of the members over at the model thread yesterday that the lows would probably get downgraded as time goes on as they always have done in the past but barely anyone agreed with me.

This evening the models show the beginning of downgrades but hopefully its just a blip and they will ramp up the lows again to give us something of a middle ground in terms of wind gusts e.g. not typical 50mph or devastating 100mph but a different 60mph or 70mph perhaps.

But some areas have been upgraded   my location now is showing 70 + 80 mph winds  which is very rare   for sunday    to be fair  I'd rather it not be that  strong 

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The exact strength of winds and where they are, are gonna vary over the next few days. But I think its pretty certain this storm will cause pretty big disruption across the entire country. ICON, GFS, ARPEGE and ECM all agreeing on my area to receive around 70mph. That alone makes me think that big downgrades aren't super likely.

Edited by Porto

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Well I'm going to wait until Friday evening and see what the models say. We did have 70 to 80 yesterday today the highest is 60 to 65mph.

Downgrades are pretty normal and at least all the models are onside which helps. I can only recall one update during my time on here.

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Met Office Yellow Warning, if you look at the impact matrix graphic, the tick is down the bottom, next to 'unlikely'

They are playing it safe with the blanket warning, and then refine the warning later on, expect some areas to be removed from the warning, but maybe an amber upgrade for other areas

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It's not a matter of upgrades or downgrades. You have a low tracking from the western Atlantic and undergoing rapid cyclogenisis to be in the vicinity of northern Scotland all in just 24hours. Obviously the detail will be revised nearer the time after the preliminary warning

Edited by knocker
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18 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Met Office Yellow Warning, if you look at the impact matrix graphic, the tick is down the bottom, next to 'unlikely'

They are playing it safe with the blanket warning, and then refine the warning later on, expect some areas to be removed from the warning, but maybe an amber upgrade for other areas

The met office warning system is confusing and to be honest not fit for the purpose. How they the impact seems to be totally at random at times. I wish they went back to the old system.

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Slight downgrades this morning which isn't a surpise. One waits until Friday too see what it says then.

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11 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Met Office Yellow Warning, if you look at the impact matrix graphic, the tick is down the bottom, next to 'unlikely'

They are playing it safe with the blanket warning, and then refine the warning later on, expect some areas to be removed from the warning, but maybe an amber upgrade for other areas

It has seemed fair enough for the MO to highlight the event for the weekend earlier this time and as you say add in the fine detail of Ambers maybe today or tomorrow

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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Slight downgrades this morning which isn't a surpise. One waits until Friday too see what it says then.

Hi Pit. Maybe some supporting charts and explanation would be helpful to readers. Has central pressure reduced? Low moved further north? Have wind speeds reduced? Thanks.

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If anything each MO update increases wind speeds with each update for us in CS England. Now predicting 30mph sustained winds with gusts 50-60 mph for a 12 hour period. This would put it on a par with the Valentine's day storm of 2014 if it verifies

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Not quite sure where anyone sees any downgrades. Predicted gust speeds are increasing with every update in central and southern areas as is the duration of the strongest gusts.

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Slight downgrades this morning which isn't a surprise. One waits until Friday too see what it says then.

Very odd comment. Wind speeds for Sunday looks quite concerning for much of the UK? 

D0A10B5D-7ED2-4ACD-9D4E-3AE34C047034.png

As another member has said, perhaps it would be a good idea to show the charts you are comparing to illustrate your thoughts? ? 

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According to the GFS the south gets gusts over 50mph for over 12hrs.. The south coast and west even stronger!! 

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