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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Good consistency with the last two GFS runs at D10:

0z>gfseu-0-264.thumb.png.40f55ec38ae67b8c843cd56e6d4e86b5.png06z>gfseu-0-258.thumb.png.6fe66a0eb73f7303ae0487ec5b579f3b.png

Looks like wedges of heights at high-lat on the opposite side of the NH means that the tPV main vortex pushed to the NW of the UK. So the weight of this looks like giving us a NW>SE flow so NW'ly flow at times. Looks like zonal so mini-waves meaning the cold flow isn't sustained, ebbs and flows:

gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.685a57cdbf2ae0fb8fd3fde5f654ec48.png

It looks like the Pacific is going to be the dominant NH mid-lat high in FI which is poor for UK high-lat blocking. For the SE, surface conditions: likely average temps with rain and wind, and as others have said an Autumnal synoptic. Pretty rubbish run down here for the next 16-days sadly.

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Sadly the extended ECM looks a lot like the GFS today..

image.thumb.png.7353e118a1e01aae6c4d0c29a872967a.pngimage.thumb.png.a2919d583d8553689e824083b6c39309.png

Deep Atlantic trough looks like returning as we head into February, with further strong wind and rain. The fat lady ain't singing yet, but she's definitely warming up those vocal chords. If we don't get any amplification in the next week and it goes flat again, I'm done with this winter.
 

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00z EC wasn't exactly an outlier for London surface temp next week, certainly plenty of similarly cold members clustered with it, plenty of spread after the 5th. I think the GEFS may well be greatly affected early on by the knock on effects of that winter storm track off eastern US and E Canada late weekend/early next week as to where members go thereafter, certainly they aren't buying amplification on the whole.

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.cf7fabe0a3eb899158940411bf0ed5bd.gif

We await our fate from the 12z runs, if EC jumps ship in favour of the flatter pattern of the other models for early-mid next week, then the Fat Lady will sing. 

Edited by Nick F
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Its not just the upstream trough which is an issue but the handling of low pressure near the UK and how low heights over Arctic Canada effect the former  as they get pushed south in response to the high building in from the Pacific .

So far this morning and this might seem like straw clutching ! 

We’ve had 4 06 hrs outputs .

The GFS actually started a bit more amplified over eastern Canada but then went downhill .

The ICON has increased in amplitude upto day 5 . It was this model which first ditched any decent ridge . Our old favourite the NAVGEM has also improved from its 00hrs run.

The JMA at T84hrs also looks okay at that point .

So it’s a mixed picture . I think the 12 hrs runs will decide the issue given the timeframes involved .

 

 

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One streak that we are not going to end this winter is the +NAO in Dec/Feb period. The reliance on NAO for low level snow in UK is clear to see

nao.sprd2.gif

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Well, there we go:

image.thumb.png.8ff3c8a756b32f7f8ef7f8c0b39a48bc.png

Pretty much all of the cold runs gone, and barring a small dip below average on the 4th Feb, we're back above average out to mid-month, with a continuation of what we've had all winter. Going to take an almighty swing back in subsequent runs to pull this one out. The usual model adage of exercising caution until firm agreement shows has been once again highlighted. We never got any better than around 50/50 support, and that ain't enough.
 

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Regarding the GEFS which have hit the buffers since yesterday afternoon re cold outcomes .

It really depends how many have the correct solution upstream re the ne USA low .

The subject of the pattern in the eastern USA was discussed in the overnight extended forecast discussion from NCEP .

There are issues across the models regarding phasing and timing  of northern and southern arms of the jet and whether the low travels ne well offshore  or more along the coast .

The latter  would suggest a more amplified pattern v the former which is the more flat solution .

Historically the ECM does better with phasing v the GFS.

Still waiting for the morning update USA time , overnight NCEP sided with last evenings 12hrs ECM op for the eastern USA days 3 and 4 .And after that more weight for the ECM with a smaller input from the GFS.

 

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Cold prospects??? Questions today are a plenty

1) will the 12gfs upgrade and bring the cold back? 

2)will the 12zgfs downgrade even more and show more mild? 

3)will the ecm follow the gfs with its downgrade of cold? 

4)will the ecm stick to its guns and show a cold northerly ? 

I will always trust the ECM before the gfs but!!!!!!!!!! 

Will I be correct????? 

All shall be revealed shortly ha ha. 

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4 hours ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps ?

Hope everyone is well, just reached Milton Keynes from East London. A bright crisp morning with some frost around.

So another week since I last posted and I thought I come back today and see where we are. After the excitement in here yesterday seems as if the output has quetened down the mood again. Alas it's beginning to get a norm now with the models makes you think we live in the Bermuda Triangle or something 10 or a16 day Stella charts that seem to then mysteriously disappear and bring back doom and gloom in the forum. 

So where are we heading, to be honest as mentioned in my last post I have blocked the rest of this winter off so to avoid disappointment and if we do get cold it will be a big bonus. I think a lot of hype has been made on next weeks high pressure alas we seen it so many times before and we still fall into that trap bless the hearts of us coldies. Looks as if we may see a brief cold incursion but I can't see any deep freeze yet. I think there is too much energy for the poor high to float up where we want it. So ending up with dry benign conditions would be my call. However these patterns can easily change and who knows might go for our good but my gut feeling tells me no not yet.

couple of questions to think about

is Europe going into the freeze?

is there less energy north?

is there low pressure down south?

has the Atlantic slowed down?

has the PV weakened?

if we can answer yes to the above then there is a chance that winter will pay us a visit. 

Our search continues but time is not going to be our friend and spring will be on the horizon, something dramatic has to come for our cries now.

Who knows we may strike it lucky. If not don't get yourselves down we will be back here in 9 months again and our search will continue.

wishing you all a great day 

regards ????

Excellent post

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I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.dfdce11ee030a3566d8383a2a88c7f33.gif

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

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5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.dfdce11ee030a3566d8383a2a88c7f33.gif

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

Yes the outpouring of record cold from the polar fields, eventually, may bring some very late surprises. 

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23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.dfdce11ee030a3566d8383a2a88c7f33.gif

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

image.thumb.png.86d8b6577e6dd5f1fc69f5854927f743.png

With charts like this showing up for mid February, you can understand where some of the +5/+6 sigma AO forecasts are coming from. Looks more like a November/December chart than mid feb..

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I agree those looking for cold to mid February are going to be disappointed.

Those looking at the end of the month - well, perhaps but a setback or two in the past 24 hours especially with regard to strat warming.

I do think March will surprise on the cold side - particularly around mid month as the TPV relents but it's very early days.

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30 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.dfdce11ee030a3566d8383a2a88c7f33.gif

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

What is also interesting is the scatter. Is this model uncertainty influenced by the warming in the strat?

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Ukmo sticks to its guns!!in fact gfs is slightly more amplified earlier on aswell!!if ecm is the same as this mornings 00z run then i expect gfs to slowly back down with each run

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It all rests on the mighty GEM. If the GEM fires high pressure up to the pole then I'd say it's game on and a near-certainty. ?? 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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already conflicting  signals via the 12th ops. ..with ridging /pressure points. ..

an-interesting  ecm  this eve. ..with its amplifier  keeness! !

Edited by tight isobar
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12zgfs can't rid itself of that insipid PV to the NNW!!!maybe a short blast of cold on the ukmo but the PV is relentless 

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

already conflicting  sigoals via the 12th ops. ..with ridging /pressure points. ..

an-interesting  ecm  this eve. ..with its amplifier  keeness! !

What pressure points TI ??? Look at the PV pal it's rock solid

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

What pressure points TI ??? Look at the PV pal it's rock solid

Desperation and/or despair probably. 

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FI begins at day 4 upstream .

You can see the differences between the GFS and UKMO in how they handle the ne USA low .

By day 5 the GFS is taking the energy east and the UKMO ne .

Day 6 the same , even if the ridge topples on the UKMO by day 7 the energy will still be moving ne so you’re likely to get the ridge toppling in the same direction with a ne flow into the UK .

The GEM is upto T138 hrs , big improvement on the 00hrs run.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Interesting blog from Nick:

nacreousduncan.jpg
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Nick's latest blog looks at the rumours floating around of a major SSW in February. Also, before then, the models are in disagreement for next week over a potential cold northerly.

 

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23 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

It all rests on the mighty GEM. If the GEM fires high pressure up to the pole then I'd say it's game on and a near-certainty. ?? 

???Yes the mighty gem will come to the rescue !!! Possibly as entertaining as the other models atm

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