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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Had a huge storm yesterday afternoon.

Picture of last nights supercell in Edinburgh taken from portobello beach 

Satellite infra red imagery from the early hours of this morning showed quite a dark core for the low pressure system out in the bay of Biscay. I would take this to show that the low pressure system w

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Thunder and lightning earlier today in the Pennines, its just been mentioned on Granada Reports.  I'm not surprised as mid morning there was huge cumulus continually travelling eastwards from my location, some good insolation too as the ground quickly dried up this morning and I could hear mine and the neighbours upvc frames expanding. Some interesting convective skies earlier looking towards Manchester.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 11 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 12 Oct 2019

ISSUED 20:38 UTC Thu 10 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A waving cold front will move slowly southeastwards across England and Wales on Friday, with elements of line convection at times on the cold front given the strongly-sheared environment. This may produce some strong gusts of wind and brief spells of heavy rain. However, given weak instability and fairly saturated profiles, lightning is considered a very low risk.

The post-frontal environment will be characterised by frequent showers affecting western Ireland and western Scotland, and occasionally extending further inland. These may be capable of small hail and isolated lightning strikes. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-11

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 12 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 13 Oct 2019

ISSUED 18:40 UTC Fri 11 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad southwesterly flow aloft covers the British Isles on Saturday, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary providing cloud and rain across southern England for much of the day. To the north, the cooler airmass will be characterised by scattered showers affecting many northern and western parts of Britain and Ireland, perhaps producing a few isolated lightning strikes.

On Saturday night, as a longwave trough over the Atlantic approaches, the backing flow will tend to push the frontal boundary over southern Britain gradually farther north, encouraging warm advection over NE France and towards SE England. This is likely to result in scattered elevated showers during the early hours of Sunday over NE France, which may pass close to SE England, posing the threat for a few lightning strikes. However, most (if not all) activity is likely to remain away from SE England, and so no threat levels have been introduced at this stage.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-12

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Oct 2019

ISSUED 19:11 UTC Sun 13 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Trough disruption will occur on Sunday night to the west of Ireland, with the largescale upper trough splitting such that one portion will relax northeastwards towards NW Scotland (generating some instability over this area on Monday, hence the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes), the other digging southwards towards Biscay while becoming increasingly negatively-tilted. The net result is a backing of the flow over western Europe, encouraging a surge of warm air advection to occur from France into SE England / Low Countries, this environment also becoming engaged by the forward side of the approaching aforementioned upper trough.

The frontal boundary, which has plagued much of England and Wales throughout the weekend, will begin Monday once again straddling the English Channel. Through the day the front, and associated leading precipitation, will lift gradually northwards, with advection of high dewpoint air (15-16C) eventually reaching SE England during the afternoon and evening hours, within the warm sector. Forced ascent of this warm, moist airmass, particularly as a ~950mb warm nose develops by late afternoon / early evening, will encourage deep convection to occur, with heavy showers / a few thunderstorms expected to develop over northern France / English Channel and drift NNE / NE-wards towards CS / SE England, and perhaps later East Anglia.

The true extent of lightning is questionable given rather saturated profiles, but 400-600 J/kg CAPE coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer and forced ascent should allow at least some sporadic lightning to occur, and hence the introduction of a SLGT. The area may need tweaking (east and / or west) depending on trends.

Despite the somewhat restricted instability, forecast wind profiles would suggest the potential for a supercell or two. Much of this activity will be from elevated convection, however should any thunderstorms become rooted within the boundary layer then there is potential for the marked backed surface winds to aid low-level rotation and bring the risk of a tornado, particularly early in the evening. Local flooding will be an additional concern.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-14

 

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2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Thought I would pop in with a wee post as it is sad to see the tumbleweed blowing through here...even @Summer Sun has given up posting the Convective Weather daily outlook! ?

Had some torrential downpours and nice cloudscapes over the past week - also Asperitas clouds last month. (Anyone seen them before?)

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Now that Summer/thunderstorm season has gone I thought I would look back at my favourite pictures I had taken of convection/thunderstorms from June/July/August - great season up here. 

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And lastly I wanted to take some pictures after the thunderstorm/convection had cleared - which made for some dramatic scenes/sunsets. 

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It really was a glorious Summer for warmth, convection/thunderstorms and skies - one I will never forget! 
 

Hopefully next Summer delivers the same (up here) and more thunderstorms for all of us! 
 

All the best!

David 

Superb photos and what a wonderful place to live.

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Cracking photos, Mr Frost!

As for today: if the Met Office's Weather Warning of Yellow Rain is to be met, the weather needs to get a move on. The boring regular rain is clearing our area and there's nothing much in France.

Are we in for yet another "cry wolf" from the Met Office? 

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15 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Cracking photos, Mr Frost!

As for today: if the Met Office's Weather Warning of Yellow Rain is to be met, the weather needs to get a move on. The boring regular rain is clearing our area and there's nothing much in France.

Are we in for yet another "cry wolf" from the Met Office? 

I think storms are supposed to fire later this afternoon in central/northern france and move north east. I've read PJB's analysis on UKWW which is forecasting some very severe storms for France later.

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Disrupting/slowing upper trough moves in across far W of Europe today - engages frontal boundary lying SW-NE across W and N France, a wave low forming along frontal boundary as front lifts back north in response to winds backing ahead of approaching upper trough from the west. This low along boundary, currently over NW France, moving NE across SE England this evening. Severe thunderstorms forecast across western, central and northern France from lift created by convergence of warm moist plume ahead of cold front moving in from the west in combination with increasing ascent and cooling aloft with approaching upper trough, strong southerly jet aloft and backing surface winds suggests strong deep layer shear leading to organised multi-cells and perhaps supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including tornadoes, see estofex and orange alerts from Meteo France

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gfs_stp_eur9.thumb.png.81053e70e8ace595ad32aac7e40fc008.png

For us in the UK, instability developing over France this afternoon looks to clip SE England this afternoon and early evening in warm sector to east of low and cold front pushing in from the SW, so we could see some thunderstorms push N/NE over the English Channel to affect parts of SE England (inc. London) and East Anglia towards the end of the evening rush hour, before this activity clears NE as cold front clears to allow more stable cooler Atlantic air in from the southwest. Precipitation charts from 06z UKV (courtesy of Netweather Extra):

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WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

Netweather Convective / Storm Forecast for today:

 

Edited by Nick F
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Quite an active line of storms off western France, drifting NNE, if these continue across NW France and English Channel, wouldn't be surprised if Met O issue upgrade warning for SE England as storms may co-incide with rush hour

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... and yes, have to pinch yourself that it's mid October. But it's 25-26C and humid across central France right now, so plenty of fuel

 

Edited by Nick F
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