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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Shower that passed shower initially dropped temp to 25c, but that’s already back to 26c but dew points have rocketed to 21c #moist! 

Could make a huge difference for later on. Wonder if this could plant the seed for storm initiation this evening. 

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

😍

OMG right over my house!!

Yep  Consensus  really for potential secere storms  over North Midlands Towards the North West of England   Lets hope it dosent go the way of most winters up your neck of the woods. 

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Hmmm ... these clouds over Portsmouth are fairly shallow and aren't doing anything except obscuring the sun from time to time - but they do have the appearance of pre-thundery clouds. 

It's a short line of cloud and it's almost through already. Won't affect temperatures that much I think.

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Certainly signs are good viewing north of  Norwich airport and building.

20190725_111044.jpg

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Some Webcam Footage Of A Thunderstorm Moving Up Over Brownhills.

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So my plan I think will be Butser Hill / Bognor Regis to watch the storms approach, then zip up the A3 to Pewley Hill to see them move north into London.

Possibly head even further north after that to Wisley but the storms will be fairly brisk so driving past there would be a waste of time possibly

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22 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Well wasnt expecting that rain along the Poole n Bournmouth just now! wondering it it will make a difference this evening with more moisture around. 

Well convective weather suggested it and Nick F forecast is of similar lines , I think these are one forecasted to when they move in to more northern areas are expected to go barmy (not a technical term i know)

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It is a bit tricky forecasting today. When I look at the GFS based forecast SkewT's I see a number of problems with the forecasts. 22 C top temperature for Cardiff when it is already 26 C. Dew points of 25 C for Cumbria later. So basically I am not taking much notice of these. Then we have the fact that the jet stream around Portugal is further east than forecast which makes it a little hard to predict the angle of the jet stream over Ireland. Looking purely at the Satellite images then I think we have three distinct possibilities for Convective activity. The first is a small trough currently over the South Coast which I think could enhance as it moves northwards (South Midlands and East Midlands) with perhaps some follow on storms . Ahead of the cold front we have clear evidence of a trough which may affect some western areas later. Lastly we have the horseshoe shaped trough over northern France due to heat build up and this is the feature which is likely to  move north and give the elevated storms during the evening and overnight over the UK.The exact areas affected will depend on the placement of the jet stream towards Ireland.
Now forecasting seems like the best course of action although we can say there will be elevated storms over night giving strong convective gusts and significant electrical activity.

DY06ypB8GuLk2.jpg

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So my understanding was possibility of storms breaking out in South but not as potent due to the warmer mid level air advecting from France - however as these drift north there is no dry air aloft and the cold front is edging in , so this is where the biggest threat will be

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BBC now showing storms from 11pm till 5am 🤷‍♂️ suppose its going to be a case of radar watching 

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38 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Interestingly, PJB not really interested in the severe outlook further North as many forecasts are showing.

Who will win??

perhaps he coloured the zones in the wrong colours

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Got out of work at 11.00 in baking sunshine but was surprised to see the dark clouds moving in from the south, the sky almost looking reminiscent of Florida before a storm arrives. Anyway it hasn't done anything noteworthy other than block out the sun, but some lucky people are going to see something pretty spectacular later I think.

Shame I have work tomorrow or I'd be tempted to drive to my mum's near Wellingborough for a chase.

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1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

So my understanding was possibility of storms breaking out in South but not as potent due to the warmer mid level air advecting from France - however as these drift north there is no dry air aloft and the cold front is edging in , so this is where the biggest threat will be

That's the general opinion I think yes

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Posted (edited)

Meto forecast radar looks fun even in the afternoon!

image.thumb.png.f8097224dfc236d19e8b78c153b7a347.pngimage.thumb.png.73ab2628e625d9773090a4dc133f5838.pngimage.thumb.png.b65465d69a1bce20aa2f5807b7e96873.png  

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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7 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Do you think my area in wendover bucks could see anything again tonight? 

I hope so  will be up all night watching think us wendoverians have a fair chance of something maybe later thisafternoon as well enjoy

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What's that just appeared off the Wash, anaprop or a swiftly building monster?

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Just now, matty40s said:

What's that just appeared off the Wash, anaprop or a swiftly building monster?

Not anaprop - strikes showing on blitzortung

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12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

So my plan I think will be Butser Hill / Bognor Regis to watch the storms approach, then zip up the A3 to Pewley Hill to see them move north into London.

Possibly head even further north after that to Wisley but the storms will be fairly brisk so driving past there would be a waste of time possibly

I’m thinking Bognor too as a starting point but I’m not expecting a repeat of Tuesday night down here, I’m making the most of being able to chase with no work to get up for until I start my new job next week!

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Posted (edited)

Quite interesting whats going on around Nantes. Do model forecasts take cap breaking into account over France? Just wondering if that's what's happening over there. Raining again here now in Poole. Surely this wasnt expected? Be interesting how this pans out going forward with more moisture in the air. Think those up noth are in for a hell of a ride!

Edited by Rapodo

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Just goes to show how volatile the atmosphere is out there. I'm just gonna check the radar this evening and see what's close by.

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A few forecasts showing severe weather in Scotland, others not. Who do I believe? 😂 really dying for all this potential to be put to use 

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7 minutes ago, Paul said:

For those who may not have seen it @Nick F has issued a storm forecast for today including a severe storm possibility. 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

stormmap_250719.png

Being smack in the centre of the orange zone, one has to hope that we come out unscathed as were heading to Cornwall late tonight.

Ive just had to replace the trailer plug after it gave weird lights on the back of the trailer. The Wife said that something always happens just as we are about to go on Hols.

Lets hope that was it and  mother nature keeps her distance.

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