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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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3 minutes ago, Snowbound said:

GFSOPEU12_207_1.png  

 

OK, so this is a bit further out, however this ideally would be the track we would hope for this weekend. That said if this passes of around the 6th, it could be quite a wintry event too.

That would the the perfect transition.  We all know what happens when the wind goes to the NE.

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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22 minutes ago, Chris. said:

NE England (Newcastle) gets a pasting

And E Scotland, indeed if the pattern extends some areas (inc Edinburgh) could see really disruptive totals piling up by the end of the week and into next ... the North York moors, Southern Uplands etc could see ridiculous amounts !

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I know people will say please learn a bit but! 

In these conditions what are are the principal factors from the models that make forecasters clear about convective activity? I assume low 850 and surface temps together with dew points etc but why the talk of so much shower activity in the north east? Is it wind speed ? Sea temp? 

 

TIA

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How many of you can remember December 09 ?

At the start the models kept changing daily hinting a breakdown 

But look how long it lasted ,so no reason why this spell won't go on and on for 10 days plus, and why because we have that beautiful reversal setup in place with a weakened atlantic and split jet stream thanks to the SSE

Bring it on

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Just had a scan through half of the ECM ensembles... (~20)

Most of them have low pressure in an area to the west of France and South of Ireland by next Friday evening.

I'd say about 65-70% of them have the potential for snow to stay around up until that point rather then turning to rain over me (the far south).

Without dewpoints for individual ens I can only go by the pressure pattern and T850s. The vast majority of them have SSE/ SE winds meaning for many the continental air isn't displaced by Friday evening. 

What concerns me is that the deep low scenario on the ECM op has a lot of support and if they came into fruition, it could be quite a damaging event. Many members deepen the low a lot.

EDIT: Quite a few members have the mild air taking hold by saturday though, still a lot to decide before then however.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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2 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

How many of you can remember December 09 ?

At the start the models kept changing daily hinting a breakdown 

But look how long it lasted ,so no reason why this spell won't go on and on for 10 days plus, and why because we have that beautiful reversal setup in place with a weakened atlantic and split jet stream thanks to the SSE

Bring it on

Don't you mean February 09 ?

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6 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

I know people will say please learn a bit but! 

In these conditions what are are the principal factors from the models that make forecasters clear about convective activity? I assume low 850 and surface temps together with dew points etc but why the talk of so much shower activity in the north east? Is it wind speed ? Sea temp? 

 

TIA

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8748-sea-effect-snow---the-uk-version-of-lake-effect-snow-very-cold-air-across-the-north-sea

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8 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

How many of you can remember December 09 ?

At the start the models kept changing daily hinting a breakdown 

But look how long it lasted ,so no reason why this spell won't go on and on for 10 days plus, and why because we have that beautiful reversal setup in place with a weakened atlantic and split jet stream thanks to the SSE

Bring it on

Simplicity in a nutshell.  The one big data input that models are failing badly with is a total reversal almost the whole atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere.

That’s the base colour for our painting, EVERYTHING else is happening within that overall context and that situation could persist for 6 weeks quite easily.

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Massive model mayhem. Potential for utter wintry chaos - snow to rain, rain back to snow, ice, freezing rain and just to really mix it up - high winds at times on Friday. I'll bet Exeter have called all staff back in for extended shifts, and councils all over the UK are on alert.

I cant possibly call Fri/Sat. There is just no way we can be certain - there is little to no precedent for an event like this given background signals, depth of cold the system will run into, and unusual forecast of a fast moving block to the north. Teleconnections pretty much useless in such a small scale event that will live or die on margins of 50 - 100 miles.

One thing I am beginning to wish - that I lived just north of the M4. That damned M4 again - but it would appear that chances for all snow are pretty good if you are sat in Bristol, Gloucester, Oxford et al. South of that is going to be a very close run thing unless we get a convergence onto something other than the middle ground option that is beginning to be cemented in. Initially the low looked to struggle to get far enough north, then it was barreling a long way north, and now it is settling in the middle.

Meanwhile 18z about to roll out, and convective showers for the east getting ready to roll. Much anticipation all over.

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22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GEFS 2 looks amazing to me, for Friday's low and after

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=2&ech=6&carte=0&mode=0

This is what I've been looking for. Can the pattern get through so quickly that the additional cold pool to the east gets sucked into the Azores low, dragging it east through the channel and leaving us with more frigid easterlies?

Seems far fetched but then the idea of the Azores low reaching us seemed far fetched two days ago.

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3 minutes ago, Snowbound said:

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Where did that HP to the west of Ireland appear from ?? Dragging down northerlies over Ireland ? 

It's actually a Low pressure

Edited by Purga
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