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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

    You are going to have to explain further (for me anyway) regarding the poor cluster from those charts. ( a Rolph Harris job) as this is really over my head.

    Thanks.

    I think its relative as in a poor cluster compared to the rest in terms of high placement but still very good if we hadn't seen the others.

    You can see from the De Bilt ensembles how strong the cold signal is ,  poor in here we normally equate to ghastly mild mush which isn't showing thankfully.

    Before long we're going to have clustergate!

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
    50 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    At the end of the day, based on the 12z runs, all coldies across the uk should be winners, the South of Britain from the Easterly and the North from a Northerly following retrogression..the only losers in all this are those looking for a return of mild!:)

     

    People seem to be vastly underestimating how an easterly affects up here; there’s a whole lot of high ground and, as the ECM vedur.is chart shows, it is a prime position to be in. Warm North Sea + cold uppers + elevation = thumbs up. The UKMO is the only model moving that potentially away at the moment by pumping across dryer less unstable air but that maybe just from Scotland.

    Having lived ‘down south’, a north easterly is a better prospect than a northerly, same as here but that looks less likely as the ‘second wave’ event at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    -12 uppers poking east anglia on Sunday afternoon. Way faster and better angle of attack compared to the 12z. 

    89044F0A-711F-4D52-AB4B-09642A8917B5.thumb.png.3a4b7f5d77421aebe840382c70806a41.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    ICON 18z has the -8C isotherm into the east by Sunday lunchtime

    icon-1-90.png?21-18

    There should be a few snow showers starting to develop and push into the east by this point. Nothing major at the moment but these should get heavier and more widespread as we proceed into the following week. A noticeable shift north with the position of the high by Monday.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I think its relative as in a poor cluster compared to the rest in terms of high placement but still very good if we hadn't seen the others.

    You can see from the De Bilt ensembles how strong the cold signal is ,  poor in here we normally equate to ghastly mild mush which isn't showing thankfully.

    Before long we're going to have clustergate!

    Thanks, nick but it was in relation to the strat charts posted where they had a `poor cluster`. Appreciate your help mate.

    Clusters from a graph is a given, just can`t see it on said chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ikon very decent..

    And is lining up the beast for a direct hit @uk..

    Cold pooling is both expansive and deep.

    icon-1-90.png

    icon-0-90.png

    icon-14-87.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I think its relative as in a poor cluster compared to the rest in terms of high placement but still very good if we hadn't seen the others.

    You can see from the De Bilt ensembles how strong the cold signal is ,  poor in here we normally equate to ghastly mild mush which isn't showing thankfully.

    Before long we're going to have clustergate!

    Nick try one of these before its deleted a CLUSTER :bomb:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Not quite sure how the ICON puts the breaks on at +93 hrs, that’s a bit of a puzzler. But it’s still very good!

    2214AF0E-A42F-4A9A-ABAA-D2ADFD1FDB4D.thumb.png.bb9fdd78b82d9a2d5485ec870948b714.png460AAD24-06B9-4146-A583-BFE9D8DE43E9.thumb.png.27c5ca46805df49071252793b6c74d9f.pngD3BE0BBC-AB00-4E13-A463-2F5BF17615B3.thumb.png.5dd9ef8b5776a2a7a8d9209282a7c076.png76EF3A64-7CD7-4F65-A807-7E71B2BC3A1F.thumb.png.42f65d9183e3be9eeca2f1a8007493e6.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Not quite sure how the ICON puts the breaks on at +93 hrs, that’s a bit of a puzzler. But it’s still very good!

    2214AF0E-A42F-4A9A-ABAA-D2ADFD1FDB4D.thumb.png.bb9fdd78b82d9a2d5485ec870948b714.png460AAD24-06B9-4146-A583-BFE9D8DE43E9.thumb.png.27c5ca46805df49071252793b6c74d9f.pngD3BE0BBC-AB00-4E13-A463-2F5BF17615B3.thumb.png.5dd9ef8b5776a2a7a8d9209282a7c076.png76EF3A64-7CD7-4F65-A807-7E71B2BC3A1F.thumb.png.42f65d9183e3be9eeca2f1a8007493e6.png

    Yeah-with you there karlos..

    A bit of a stalled evolution there...

    However it rolls on to a good degree!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Paul said:

    @Nick F's latest blog is well worth a read as he's taken an in depth look at the upcoming cold spell, the reasons for it, and how it may play out. 

    The Beast From The East Cometh

     

    ICON looking pretty solid, bit weird how everything sortof just stops for a bit though, good start to the 18z runs. I don't think we need to worry it's all pretty much smooth sailing into this cold now

    ICON.thumb.png.bf45ee5b8f2d51f81837843d78110d67.png

    Edited by Team Jo
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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull
    4 minutes ago, Paul said:

    @Nick F's latest blog is well worth a read as he's taken an in depth look at the upcoming cold spell, the reasons for it, and how it may play out. 

    The Beast From The East Cometh

    Interesting that we talking about sublimation being a major factor in snow cover. Haha

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    This is the model output thread, not the Net Weather blog post thread :nonono:

    ICON looking pretty solid, bit weird how everything sortof just stops for a bit though, good start to the 18z runs. I don't think we need to worry it's all pretty much smooth sailing into this cold now

    ICON.thumb.png.bf45ee5b8f2d51f81837843d78110d67.png

    That Azores LP, (not often you can say that) does `Pep` up which may just hold the flow somewhat?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    If anyone has the patience to look through the ECM ensembles on weather.us, make sure you do tonight, go to Thursday March 1st, look at 850hpa / temperature and scroll through all 51 members. You may never see anything like it again

    A lot of runs get to minus 17C, and two runs even get the minus 19C line to the east coast.

     

     

     

    Yep, the control is a good example of -17C into the SE, to be fair the op run isn't that far off (probably breaks the flow 6hrs too early)

    Synoptically what happens on most of those coldest runs is the shortwave comes down from the NE and the cold air comes down from the ENE/NE behind it as the dam break so to speak. Long wayoff though, especially when some models/ensemble runs are pushing the main thrust into France instead even at 120hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    24 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

     

    ICON looking pretty solid, good starts to the 18z runs. I don't think we need to worry it's all pretty much smooth sailing into this cold now

    ICON.thumb.png.bf45ee5b8f2d51f81837843d78110d67.png

    The high is still too close for many. I can read the charts pretty well but can anybody explain why that Iberian low isn't undercutting? Block stopping it? It seems like it just does not want to go under 

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

     

    ICON looking pretty solid, bit weird how everything sortof just stops for a bit though, good start to the 18z runs. I don't think we need to worry it's all pretty much smooth sailing into this cold now

    ICON.thumb.png.bf45ee5b8f2d51f81837843d78110d67.png

    Don’t think anyone is questioning the entry of the cold ..... it’s all the other stuff ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Ahh okay so one rule for mods, one rule for everyone else, gotcha!

    Can we just take a moment to appreciate this chart at T48hrs?

    Wow.thumb.png.1d0f5dc05bd5233559e6c2ad106b7223.png

    We've watched these charts come from the depths of FI to the reliable timeframe, how often can you say that happens? 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Still some tight/straightness of flow issues to resolve before we know how soon the deep cold lands, but by far the biggest message the model output of today has given me is this:

    We need the southerly jet to drive a trough at least as far east as the Balearic Isles by Wednesday and then ideally as far as Italy by next Thursday.

    Reason being the strengthened signal for the main focus of high latitude blocking to shift rapidly to the NW and with more exploration of a west-based negative NAO outcome; we need the LP to the SE so that deep cold will continue being pushed in our direction even as the blocking moves away. Inevitably the flow will then spread out and destabilise, but with enough of a residual E flow this could well leave the UK beneath a large area of air still cold enough for all-snow events and with numerous disturbances drifting across from day to day.

    Alternatively, the negative NAO may set up more east-based after all, in which case you can get that splendid transition from the Arctic continental to Arctic maritime cold airmasses with only a narrow band of less cold air between, if even that - much as we saw ECM exploring yesterday.

     

    If troughs don't make it so far east, you most likely end up with a GFS 12z scenario although probably not quite so fast to shove the less cold air in (let alone the JMA 12z with its unusually deep lows!).

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    The high is still too close for many. I can read the charts pretty well but can anybody explain why that Iberian low isn't undercutting? Block stopping it? It seems like it just does not want to go under 

    It’s doing it as a disrupting trough, sending bits under every now and again. It can’t simply push east due to the negative zonal flow which just happens to have a wall of cold associated with it. Eventually, once the main wave has subsided, it will have a proper go which may well induce a less cold flow into nw Europe, depending on how the greeny ridge is aligned. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    The high is still too close for many. I can read the charts pretty well but can anybody explain why that Iberian low isn't undercutting? Block stopping it? It seems like it just does not want to go under 

    This may help as there are no drivers and will fill in situ over n/w portugal

    icon-5-120.png?21-18

    Edited by winterof79
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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