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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

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Storm forecast issued for today:

 

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Just popped in to Tesco’s on my way home from work, and I noticed this little beauty trying to hide behind the trees. :D

... Not the best photo in the world... But it’s still nice to see some strong proper convection starting to get going. :good:

5A35230F-C715-49AE-87CB-737A0CC1B754.jpeg

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There are some showers near the coast of France ATM... (I checked on NW radar).

31 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What are the chances of a weakly electrified import or two later?

Blue skies and the Sun feels actually hot through the car window 🙂

 

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10 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Think they’ll sufficiently pep?

Hopefully, although it won't be on the same level as a summer thunderstorm!

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21 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Hopefully, although it won't be on the same level as a summer thunderstorm!

It’s starting to look good overhead now - lots of milky layers beginning to streak the sky and those little blotty bits of acas starting to show up

Expecting mostly heavy showers from this, but a few little flashes as it gets dark would be great! 👍

That low in the channel seems to be steering the precip our way too...🙂

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4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s starting to look good overhead now - lots of milky layers beginning to streak the sky and those little blotty bits of acas starting to show up

Expecting mostly heavy showers from this, but a few little flashes as it gets dark would be great! 👍

That low in the channel seems to be steering the precip our way too...🙂

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-03-15

it is possible later in the afternoon and first part of the evening for some showers/thunderstorms over N France to approach S/SE England, though probably weakening by mid-evening. 

 

Let's wait and see!

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Quite dark to my South- thunder-esque. It looks like bog-standard rain though.

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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Quite dark to my South- thunder-esque. It looks like bog-standard rain though.

trust me it will be a tropical storm like you’ve never seen before in your life 😉

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Posted (edited)

Disappointing day as a whole, a few potent showers but nothing of a note, showers that did form was in conjunction with peak instability values and diurnal heating. Main reason for today not playing out is as a result of far too much cloud cover, temperatures didn't reach values expected.

Tomorrow follows a similar story as today with something a little more potent possible across the far south towards the end of tomorrow. General consensus is that any showers will form in connection with any diurnal heating and a convergence zone which looks to set up across East Midlands so that would be my focus for tomorrow. The odd rumble of thunder possible w/ small hail but overall severity risk is slim similar of which to today.

Don't have access to my forecast map right now, but a general isolated risk extending across much of England tomorrow. However a risk of some storms (fairly elevated in nature) making its way across the channel later tomorrow (9pm onwards), though these are likely to die out from cool SST's given low bases.

5aaadf5076ada_Rainfall6pm.thumb.png.fdaf1da199a1001709d17493687b8806.pngConvergence.thumb.png.70292de8b63cbebbfad5399e4addf1d5.png5aaadf558fbec_Rainfall9pm.thumb.png.28be725664f855523b49880e443f870b.png

 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 16 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 17 Mar 2018

ISSUED 21:52 UTC Thu 15 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low to the southwest of the British Isles on Friday, with cold air aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. Diurnal heating will generate 300-500 J/kg CAPE with a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, enhanced by areas of low-level convergence. Given rather dry forecast profiles it is once again questionable as to how much lightning activity may occur, and for now have refrained from issuing a SLGT - though it is plausible parts of Somerset / Gloucestershire / S Wales may need to be upgraded.

While the main focus will be on surface-based convection over England, Wales and the Republic of Ireland, it is possible later in the afternoon and first part of the evening for some showers/thunderstorms over N France to approach S/SW England, though probably weakening by mid-evening. Main threats are localised surface water issues given a combination of heavy showers and already saturated ground, and perhaps some hail 1.0-1.5cm in diameter. 
 
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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_160318.thumb.png.5f5d188667950902bbb45e7e63e8c0c5.png

Issued 2018-03-16 10:36:40
Valid: 16/03/2018 6AM TO 17/03/2018 6AM

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - DAY 1 FRIDAY 16TH MARCH 2018

Synopsis

An upper low and surface low pressure system will be south and west of S Ireland and SW of SW UK on Friday, with an upper level high just north of Scotland and surface high over Scandinavia. An unstable Sly flow across Ireland and Sern UK will support heavy convective showers with isolated thunder today. An increasingly cold and dry easterly flow will affect Scotland and N England further N.

... S IRELAND, WALES and S ENGLAND ...

Lapse rates will be steep towards S Ireland, S and SW UK where mid-level temperatures will be coldest in proximity of upper low close to SW UK. So here we will see diurnal surface-based convection develop, as moist surface airmass warms into the low to mid teens beneath cold air aloft. Convection will become deep enough for small hail generation and isolated lightning. There is a risk of localised flooding across SW UK - where the ground is saturated / water courses full from recent high rainfall totals.

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Large changes in areas of interest overnight...

Now appears that cloud cover is going to be much less extensive than yesterday, therefore more diurnal heating and more storms should form over the afternoon. Main area of interest today is in connection with a large convergence zone stretching across the Bristol Channel and along the M4, therefore any thunderstorm activity is likely to develop here and move N/NW'wards. 

Forecast Map Below: 

5aabac34b61f9_RiskMap16thMarch2018.thumb.png.3e6054ee957e302602b537e4cfe7ec54.pngCape.thumb.png.021ece4625fee02a586aa5a6bf66fdd4.pngPrecipitation.thumb.png.de94ef014639ee55b31ceaed2cec79d0.png5aabac08adcd3_WindConvergence.thumb.png.9d37751ab493f9348413316d0bad4e8c.png

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Unlikely to go bang... But we’ve got some amazingly convective skies around here at the moment! :D

... Oh if only this was summer... :bomb::rolleyes:

A4BD68C2-8138-49EB-8074-91E51085F59D.jpeg

0603690F-D106-49F4-9A1B-A56211087F51.jpeg

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Lightning producer running to the NE of London in the last hour,producing some impressive rainfall rates too.

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Thunder snow here at the moment.  
Really impressive whiteout conditions.

B.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Mar 2018

ISSUED 20:26 UTC Thu 22 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A very low risk of lightning, more especially the Outer Hebrides late on Friday night as upper trough and associated showers approach from the west.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-03-23

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 24 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 25 Mar 2018

ISSUED 09:59 UTC Fri 23 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers associated with the passage of the cold pool may produce a few isolated lightning strikes on Saturday - the steepest mid-level lapse rates located over the Northern Isles.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-03-24

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Am in Palma, and watching how that Biscay low might affect the severity of the rain we’re forecast for tomo. Hoping for a few strikes, but sod’s law says the U.K. will probably have more... 😄

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13 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Am in Palma, and watching how that Biscay low might affect the severity of the rain we’re forecast for tomo. Hoping for a few strikes, but sod’s law says the U.K. will probably have more... 😄

Not jealous, not a bit. At all

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