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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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The dreaded "slug", i.e. the Bartlett High is still very much in F.I at present. What happens after T144 is anybody's guess, given the highly complex picture present along with uncertainty as to how much that upper-jet energy increases and to what extent/orientation it bifurcates. For the time-being, expect some cold and settled blocking near or over the UK.

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5 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

Perhaps the bossoms are beginning to ascend.

I'm glad I read that one twice!:rofl:

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Good afternoon gang ,i,v been reading all the posts and looking at all the charts this morning as yesterday was busy on family commitments . well we certainly had it very cold this am water in bird bath frozen , certainly not had that much over last couple of years .so looking at current model out put it stays cold in my local ,with another hard frost tonight and possibly tomorrow then we get a cloudy hi , next week looking warmer with some weather fronts in the mix ,we will by early next week be looking at models for some sign of the return of high pressure of course at this range we wont know how this comes about ,or even guarantee it happening ,but i do feel that the professionals have enough Data with their computers and i feel confident that some sort of block Will arrive , but a block where ,all very important of course , if high pressure sets up over us or say just to our south the toys will come a tumbling out the prams ,[ i will state now ,i AM NOT a Troll ] just lightly joking of course . if thats what we finish up with , the long range computer models would have been right ,except of course a block there is no good for us snow starved  weather fanatics .

So looking at the extended outlook again ,and met office have stated [Colder than average ,]i would take it that the high  Blocking  high that is would be further north ,for all new Members at this range no one can put any details regarding snow potential ,between now and christmas we could very well have a good snowy spell ,then mild then snowy then very mild in time for christmas , and back to snow just after .

So personally myself i am going to chill ,take a break from the computer from time to time then just check charts to see hopefully if this Block turns up ., just my little take on current situation ,not technical ,STellas all round cheers . :cold::yahoo:

 

 

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The Gfs 6z certainly has a very Dec 2015 look about it through low res..very balmy conditions with tropical maritime air flooding across the uk. Plenty of support from the GEFS 6z too with winds becoming broadly swly.

Edited by Frosty.

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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z certainly has a very Dec 2015 look about it through low res..very balmy conditions with tropical maritime air flooding across the uk. Plenty of support from the GEFS 6z mean too with winds broadly swly.

Yep...a disappointing run in the circumstances, especially when you think of the corkers the 6z has given us of late!

There's a sting in the tail here.  I think the models are still prone to some flipping at short notice while there's so much been going on unprecedented in the memory of some very experienced meteorologists and since the measuring and modelling tools now at our disposal were equipped with the level of data they now have.

I've been expecting it to get really cold the last week of December, but I think it could be a lot sooner than that.  Come around 8pm this evening we might be discussing a realistic chance of seeing a snow event for the south as early as next tuesday. Just a gut feeling that a huge flex of a muscle from the east will end up coming our way..... 

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1 hour ago, PersianPaladin said:

The dreaded "slug", i.e. the Bartlett High is still very much in F.I at present. What happens after T144 is anybody's guess, given the highly complex picture present along with uncertainty as to how much that upper-jet energy increases and to what extent/orientation it bifurcates. For the time-being, expect some cold and settled blocking near or over the UK.

Not even a true Bartlett in FI at that. A true Bartlett is a persistent area of high pressure over Europe as opposed to something more transient. By end of FI in latest GFS we don't have a Bartlett! Look at the trough over East, South East and  Central Europe. Now the second chart is a true Bartlett from the mild winter of foulness of 88/89, high pressure centred on and covering most of Europe..

 

 

gfs-0-384.png

post-7-12496922570287.gif

 

Edited by Seasonality

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41 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z certainly has a very Dec 2015 look about it through low res..very balmy conditions with tropical maritime air flooding across the uk. Plenty of support from the GEFS 6z too with winds becoming broadly swly.

The GFS takes over  a week to get into the slug position, ECM on the other hand has the HP in a lot more favourable position. This is certainly not a 2015 re run IMO. Yet 

 

slug.png

ecm.png

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20 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

 Now the second chart is a true Bartlett from the winter of foulness that was 88/89, high pressure centred on and covering most of Europe..

Rtavn061.gif

that's 1998 :diablo:

:D

 

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8 minutes ago, beng said:

that's 1998 :diablo:

:D

 

Oh feck! Not wearing my glasses! Will edit post for accuracy.

Edited by Seasonality

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It sounds like any milder atlantic breakdown next week will be restricted to the north of the uk with the south staying under high pressure with largely fine conditions.. frost / fog before anticyclonic conditions become nationwide from around mid Dec onwards.

Edited by Frosty.

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Great post as always Tamara, im pleased to see no downgrade in the mid / longer range seasonal models signal for a colder / blocked anticyclonic 2nd half of Dec.:)

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z becomes very mild for the second half of next week with southwesterly winds and quite spring like temps reaching 14/16c 59f and it also looks unsettled with bands of rain sweeping through interspersed with sunshine and showers. The charts later next week have a positive NAO look to them with strengthening Azores high and Icelandic low influence, eventually with a Euro high.

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp.png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

ukprec.png

hgt500-1000 (2).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

hgt500-1000 (3).png

h500slp.png

ukmaxtemp (3).png

If this is the new trend over the next few runs I'm out of here until may looking for heat lol

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1 minute ago, clark3r said:

If this is the new trend over the next few runs I'm out of here until may looking for heat lol

It's not the new trend according to the experts, just a partial atlantic breakdown next week is currently indicated with the south retaining surface cold with sunny spells and overnight frost and fog, some freezing.

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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

How does today's compare Snowman? Is the signal stronger, weaker or much the same?

 

Fairly weak but I would say that more time is needed. Very much a mixed bagged due to how the current block and PV is handled in the runs.

 

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23 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Fairly weak but I would say that more time is needed. Very much a mixed bagged due to how the current block and PV is handled in the runs.

 

Cheers, lets hope for a Greenland HLB black hole anomaly by this time next week.

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Surprised that the long range outlook from Met office does not reflect last night EC monthly run.  For Mid December onwards  they say "blocked" but they seem confident it will be very dry indicating that the High is parked over us again.  It doesn't look like they are confident it will push North or North West allowing a northerly or easterly flow as they don't even mention wintry showers in the North or East ? hopefully they are just hedging their bets and remaining cautious until it comes closer before using the S word !

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13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Surprised that the long range outlook from Met office does not reflect last night EC monthly run.  For Mid December onwards  they say "blocked" but they seem confident it will be very dry indicating that the High is parked over us again.  It doesn't look like they are confident it will push North or North West allowing a northerly or easterly flow as they don't even mention wintry showers in the North or East ? hopefully they are just hedging their bets and remaining cautious until it comes closer before using the S word !

They aren't the daily express, they talk of high pressure and rather cold weather in the long term, putting anymore meat on the bone than that wouldn't make sense this far out. Ian kindly gives us some in depth possibilities , not info the METO would want to release at this point - high and cold is an over view for now, as is most of their 16-30 days forecasts.

Edited by Ali1977

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6 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Up to +120 on the afternoon run of the GFS and it seems like it has shifted a little more towards the ECM. Heights over the UK seem stronger and pushing up more towards Greenland on this run. The Atlantic seems a little more weaker on this run too.

It seems so, and a closed low over Belarus and the Baltics at 150h that wasn't there on the previous run. Block putting up more resistance.

 

gfs-0-150.png

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Erm differences between the gfs and ukmo at t96 r comical. The ukmo is actually allot better and looks promising in the later timeframe. Fi currently is t 96

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6 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Up to +120 on the afternoon run of the GFS and it seems like it has shifted a little more towards the ECM. Heights over the UK seem stronger and pushing up more towards Greenland on this run. The Atlantic seems a little more weaker on this run too.

Out to t144 and that feature that was mentioned earlier, sorry can't remember by whom, that feed up and over the high, suppressing it, has gone on this run.

6Z gfsnh-0-150.png?6  12Z gfsnh-0-144.png?12

Well maybe not gone, but sitting SW of Cornwall rather than Ireland.

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Just now, Ravelin said:

Out to t144 and that feature that was mentioned earlier, sorry can't remember by whom, that feed up and over the high, suppressing it, has gone on this run.

6Z gfsnh-0-150.png?6  12Z gfsnh-0-144.png?12

Well maybe not gone, but sitting SW of Cornwall rather than Ireland.

Yes, the cheeky little green tennis ball sitting next to @knocker. Just look at the difference in the depth of cold over central and eastern Europe from 06z to 12z.

 

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-1-174 (1).png

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