Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Frosty.]

46 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

I don't want to be a killjoy but are these simply not charts showing the precipitation type expected rather than a prediction of snow cover? (granted you've used the word could Karl).

Well we will soon find out won't we...after all the anticipation and upgrades / downgrades from the models in the last few days...hope we are the right side of marginal!

Looking ahead, March could spring some wintry surprises

[swilliam]

Looking through the GES and this one caught the eye - now that is what I would N blocking and -ve AO - still can't get cold for the UK from this though.

[winterof79]

So what delights are being thrown up for next week that can be extinguished at the 12th hour.

Who can put a positive spin on this latest chart.

 

[bryan629]

This looks awesome ..... Thanks to Judah Cohen 

 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

Who can put a positive spin on this latest chart.

 

I can, that's just one 3hr timeframe snapshot for tomorrow afternoon / early evening..isn't the chance of snow supposed to increase tomorrow night into Thursday morning?.. anyhoo the heavier the rain the better as far as these marginal situations go...more positive spin, the met office still think it could turn to snow in places, enough to a give a covering.

[gottolovethisweather]

27 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I can, that's just one 3hr timeframe snapshot for tomorrow afternoon / early evening..isn't the chance of snow supposed to increase tomorrow night into Thursday morning?.. anyhoo the heavier the rain the better as far as these marginal situations go...more positive spin, the met office still think it could turn to snow in places, enough to a give a covering.

 

 

 

 

Hi Karl, my earlier post wasn't meant as a dig so sorry if it came over that way, just that for us down South, at least in the immediate term I see very little chance of this event producing settled snow. As for your reply here to winterof79 like you, I believe the best chance is when evaporative cooling is at its strongest and that is into the overnight period. The crucial timeframes are from midnight through to 9am on Thursday in my opinion, so whoever sits under the precipitation band at that hour COULD well wake up to a cover of snow. The clock is ticking for this event now and timing and location is key to whether one gets the magic white crystals or one doesn't. As for the medium to longer-term things for coldies might be looking even better, so no point in giving up yet on snow hopes even down in what is largely tropical lowland Southern England. 

Edited February 16, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Hi Karl, my earlier post wasn't meant as a dig so sorry if it came over that way, just that for us down South, at least in the immediate term I see very little chance of this event producing settled snow. As for your reply here to winterof79 like you, I believe the best chance is evaporative cooling is at its strongest and that is into the overnight period. The crucial timeframes are from midnight through to 9am on Thursday in my opinion, so whoever sits under the precipitation band at that hour COULD well wake up to a cover of snow. The clock is ticking for this event now and timing and location is key to whether one gets the magic white crystals or one doesn't. As for the medium to longer-term things for coldies might be looking even better, so no point in giving up yet on snow hopes even down in what is largely tropical lowland Southern England. 

No worries, it was just my humble opinion and as I said, the real interest is tomorrow night with night time cooling and the heavier the rain, the more chance it has of turning to wet snow...hopefully some of us will wake up to a white Thursday morning with a chance of snow across the SE during Thursday.

[A.J]

24 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

So what delights are being thrown up for next week that can be extinguished at the 12th hour.

Who can put a positive spin on this latest chart.

 

I'm blue-green colour blind...........looks pink to me 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

I'm blue-green colour blind...........looks pink to me 

More chance of being in the pink tomorrow night

[nick sussex]

The ECM is okay but it does have the PV chunk over ne Canada further east than either the GFS and UKMO at T144hrs.

I'd be surprised if we're not debating another will it won't it snow scenario regarding a shortwave running into the UK next week.

Overall not bad outputs this evening but we want to see some proper blocking to the n/ne to start showing.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Nick Sussex you suggest we need to see blocking to the n/ne do you not mean the Northwest?

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

we want to see some proper blocking to the n/ne to start showing.

With a favourable MJO and displaced vortex, surely we will see increasingly cold, blocked solutions soon. March could deliver. I'm not saying it would be like 2013 but I remember that winter 2012 / 13 was similarly abysmal to this one and then march brought blizzards and a freeze so I wouldn't rule out March 2016 springing some wonderful wintry surprises...and next week has cold interest too.

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, Karl. said:

With a favourable MJO and displaced vortex, surely we will see increasingly cold, blocked solutions soon. March could deliver. I'm not saying it would be like 2013 but I remember that winter 2012 / 13 was similarly abysmal to this one and then march brought blizzards and a freeze so I wouldn't rule out March 2016 springing some wonderful wintry surprises...and next week has cold interest too.

you sure your not thinking 13/14.... because we had lots of snow in 12/13 mid Jan end Jan then again in Feb not forgetting the WTF moment from Ian Brown..

[Frank Trough]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is okay but it does have the PV chunk over ne Canada further east than either the GFS and UKMO at T144hrs.

I'd be surprised if we're not debating "another will it won't it snow scenario" regarding a shortwave running into the UK next week.

Overall not bad outputs this evening but we want to see some proper blocking to the n/ne to start showing.

I'm prepared to answer that now - "it won't". Not in Bournemouth anyway! Mind you, it's going to take another Loch Lomond Re-advance or Krakatoa for us i think.

[stodge]

8 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Looking through the GES and this one caught the eye - now that is what I would N blocking and -ve AO - still can't get cold for the UK from this though.

Indeed and there's a risk of a west-based negative NAO setting up as the OP demonstrated but we're a long long way from that at this time. The mild snap lasts until Sunday and as for next week, very interesting weather as the trough tries to dig SE into the continent.

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Nick Sussex you suggest we need to see blocking to the n/ne do you not mean the Northwest?

Nw/n/ne I don't mind just show me a proper block! lol

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

you sure your not thinking 13/14.... because we had lots of snow in 12/13 mid Jan end Jan then again in Feb not forgetting the WTF moment from Ian Brown..

I thought the last good winter was 2011 / 12 with the nov/dec freeze(s). If I'm wrong I apologize

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Karl. said:

With a favourable MJO and displaced vortex, surely we will see increasingly cold, blocked solutions soon. March could deliver. I'm not saying it would be like 2013 but I remember that winter 2012 / 13 was similarly abysmal to this one and then march brought blizzards and a freeze so I wouldn't rule out March 2016 springing some wonderful wintry surprises...and next week has cold interest too.

I remember those blizzards in March 2013, however watching it unfold on the TV probably wasn't quite the same. It didn't deliver everywhere. 

Seems to be recent winters have proved incredibly hard to get snow to the southern half of the UK. Maybe it's because we were so spoilt pretty much nationwide in 2009/10.

Chances for sure for a few weeks more, but time is now running out for a uk wide cold wintery spell

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nw/n/ne I don't mind just show me a proper block! lol

TBH I think the NW more likely late feb / early march, NE more likely mid March onwards. That's IF a block sets up at all of course!

Edited February 16, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nw/n/ne I don't mind just show me a proper block! lol

blue for cold lol

[Mair Snaw]

3 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I thought the last good winter was 2011 / 12 with the nov/dec freeze(s). If I'm wrong I apologize

no need to apologize mate been a long winter, im sure 12/13 was a good one... well maybe not the 12 bit with that failed ECM beast from the east but Jan and Feb defo delivered for many then for some myself included March was the icing on the cake... and im pretty sure the Nov/Dec freezes were 10/11..

[Singularity]

The broad idea from ECM and GFS this evening can be summed up remarkably simply:

Mild, drizzly Saturday with breakdown back to colder on Sunday - a heavy spell of rain with that.

A 'backside northerly' to start next week, snow potential limited at lower levels though.

Trough disruption in the North Atlantic Tue-Wed with slider low potential, how far south not yet clear but we saw a big adjustment south for last weekend's events. Consequential snow potential.

Major dive of jet down through Europe from Thursday, high latitude ridges developing particularly to the NE at first with potential to evolve into full-on high latitude blocking during the following 7 day period IF both the MJO and stratosphere play ball. A big caveat with the stratosphere in particular.

 

Early March may well be horrid or brilliant, which one it is for most on here depending on whether it manages to be cold enough for lying snow in their backyard!

Edited February 16, 2016 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

you sure your not thinking 13/14.... because we had lots of snow in 12/13 mid Jan end Jan then again in Feb not forgetting the WTF moment from Ian Brown..

Sorry I was wrong, the nov/dec freezes were in 2010...oh happy days they were!

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

no need to apologize mate been a long winter, im sure 12/13 was a good one... well maybe not the 12 bit with that failed ECM beast from the east but Jan and Feb defo delivered for many then for some myself included March was the icing on the cake... and im pretty sure the Nov/Dec freezes were 10/11..

Thanks, yes I got my dates mixed up...I blame model fatigue but looking at the models I can see potential for colder spells in the weeks ahead so I won't give up the Chase!

[Paul]

Nick's latest synoptic analysis blog is all about the snow risk this week - well worth a read

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7166;sess=