White Christmas 2018

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

Into October and our fourth update makes no change to the chance of snow with a green Christmas considered the most likely outcome away from high ground in the north. The latest seasonal forecasting models are possibly suggesting a 'front loaded winter'. If this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with Christmas.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 4, 01/10/2016

The computer says [Issued 03/10/2016 06:14:43]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales

Snow is expected in the Midlands

Snow is expected in the north

Snow is expected in Scotland

Snow is expected in Northern Ireland

Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[gsteruk]

Everyone seems quite jaded this year, people expect another damp and dreary festive period and winter generally?

[Mark Parsons]

That's usually the normal weather type for us in the South at least!

[stewfox]

17 minutes ago, gsteruk said:

Everyone seems quite jaded this year, people expect another damp and dreary festive period and winter generally?

i think most folk know until we are about 10/7 days away , no one knows what even the general pattern is likely to be.

Where snow will actually fall is usually down to now casting. However I like many love Santa's shaker.

 

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

The sixth update suggests a slightly higher chance of snow in the north and south but a green Christmas considered the most likely outcome. Some seasonal forecasting models are suggesting a 'front loaded winter' and if this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with the Christmas holidays. Despite this there is still an expectation of temperatures remaining close to average through the period as a whole.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 6, 15/10/2016

The computer says [Issued 15/10/2016 10:11:13]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Talking about Christmas, there's a house near where I work that has had it's Christmas decorations up since September. I can't believe there's people out there who do this. I've seen people have them up in November before now and even I have a tradition of putting them up on the 1st of December (and even I consider that slightly early, but I do love Christmas mind and I consider December Christmas Month), but most people don't bother until midish December. September is far to early though in my opinion, I mean it isn't even Winter (though I suppose in southern hemisphere countries such as Australia it's actually Summer at Christmas, which seems odd).

Edited October 15, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

The seventh update makes no change to the chance of snow in the north and south and a green Christmas is considered the most likely outcome. Some seasonal forecasting models are suggesting a 'front loaded winter' and if this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with the Christmas holidays. Despite this there is still an expectation of temperatures remaining close to average through the period as a whole.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 7, 22/10/2016

The computer says [Issued 22/10/2016 07:23:58]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Guest]

On 15/10/2016 at 18:02, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Talking about Christmas, there's a house near where I work that has had it's Christmas decorations up since September. I can't believe there's people out there who do this. I've seen people have them up in November before now and even I have a tradition of putting them up on the 1st of December (and even I consider that slightly early, but I do love Christmas mind and I consider December Christmas Month), but most people don't bother until midish December. September is far to early though in my opinion, I mean it isn't even Winter (though I suppose in southern hemisphere countries such as Australia it's actually Summer at Christmas, which seems odd).

 

Putting up decorations very early can really stagnate that Christmas holiday mood to be honest. Short and sweet is not how I like it but thats the best way it is enjoyed.

Edited October 22, 2016 by Guest

[Africawendy]

YES!!! PLEASE lets have a white Christmas.  I'll be in UK for the very first time and have never experienced snow before

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, Africawendy said:

YES!!! PLEASE lets have a white Christmas.  I'll be in UK for the very first time and have never experienced snow before

Hi  Wendy.  what part of the Uk are you from?

[Stuart]

The tenth update suggests makes no change to the chance of snow with a green Christmas the favoured outcome for most of the country. However, indications from medium and long range forecasting models continue to suggest an increased possibility of below average temperatures during the first half of the winter. Therefore, we think there is a higher than average chance of a cold snap coinciding with the Christmas period this year.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 23%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

Forecast issued
Update 10, 12/11/2016

The computer says [Issued 13/11/2016 19:10:16]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

[sorepaw1]

It has to snow I've got Mrs sorepaws housekeeping money on it on a 4/1.

 

[Paul]

The Santa Shaker is back for another year! 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

 

[damianslaw]

Its been 6 years now since we had a cold christmas, the last 5 have been very mild - exceptionally so, it has to be said with virtually no cold weather during the christmas week (24-31 Dec), only 2014 delivered a shortlived cold shot on the 26-28th, some were lucky and had snow. Also the last 6 christmas periods have been wet or very wet, abysmal weather for walking etc.. just downright miserable. About time we had either a cold snowy one, or just even a cold/average settled one, mind the last week of December is traditionally when storms are most likely all year. 

I'd love a christmas like 2009, the run up being excellent with lots of snow and sub freezing temps, and the cold stayed throughout the christmas week mainly, but for a thaw on Boxing Day.. Christmas 2010 started off excellently, but turned into a damp murky end at New Year- still very good, the run being even better than 2009. 2008 also very good, despite the very mild run in, things turned colder just in time for christmas, and we had a cold spell run up to new year, with hard frost. Christmas 2000 also a very good one, a bit like 2008 but better, with cold arriving in time for the day itself, and heavy snow 27/28 lasting through to New Year Eve.

The best overall though has to be 1995, we had a week of mean temp below 0 degrees from christmas eve to New year eve, the only downside was there was limited snow, but temps got down to -15 degrees.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

find new year is milder still, last white new year here was 1997, '02 was bitter mind you HP inversion, remember it well, RIP Atlantic 252!

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

find new year is milder still, last white new year here was 1997, '02 was bitter mind you HP inversion, remember it well, RIP Atlantic 252!

New Year 2009 and 2010 were cold, not exceptionally so, though things turned much colder through the first week notably so in 2010. 2002 saw a very cold 3/4 days then things turned milder, little snow though. Yes 1997 was the last snowy new year. The last epic snowy new year was 1979, exceptional stuff.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok, I have just put £100 on white Christmas at Leeds at 5/1.  Bitter displaced PV hitting UK around Xmas period

 

BFTP

[Frost HoIIow]

Between 2004 and 2010 we had 3 white xmas's here with lying snow. Not bad.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Think the last white Christmas we had was 1996 i think, we very were close in 2001(?) where there was a dusting at around 100M. Certainly overdue.

[MP-R]

No white Christmas here by the Met Office definition since 2004 and before that, 2001. However, had snow on the ground for both 2009 and 2010, more so the latter. 2004 we had snow lying the weekend before from a rain-to-snow event on the 19th.

The only disgustingly mild Christmases have been 2015, 2012, 2011 and 2007 in more recent years. Even Christmas 2013 wasn't mild, even though the lead up was.

[NeilN]

A lot of people forget Christmas and well December 2012 was a mild month. 

[damianslaw]

On 14/11/2016 at 01:13, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Think the last white Christmas we had was 1996 i think, we very were close in 2001(?) where there was a dusting at around 100M. Certainly overdue.

Surprised you didn't see one in 2004. We had a light snowfall lasting quite a few hours through the morning, it delivered less than a couple of inches, but it was nice to see, and we maintained a cover through Boxing Day. It came from a arctic northerly, in what otherwise was a very mild December. Perfect timing.

2001 delivered light snow showers on and off, but we didn't receive a cover.

The last white christmas came in 2010. It wasn't forecast despite the bitter cold temps, we were forecast a dry very cold sunny day, however, a very surprised light snowfall occured late morning with big fluffy white snowflakes, depositing about an inch. It only lasted about 90 minutes, but came as a complete surprise. 

Christmas 2009 brought our last christmas with a deep snow cover, we had a level 6 inch cover, though it wasn't an official white christmas as we had no snow. Christmas Day 1993, 1995, 1996 had a snow cover but no snow falling, prior to 1993 the last time we had snow cover on the ground was way way back in 1981. Childhood memories of snowless christmas are my long lasting memory, things in the 80's didn't align themselves very well, with much snow and cold just prior and after christmas but not on the day itself. I remember many a cold New Year. To have been about 8 or 9 years old around 2008-2010 must have been great! holding long lasting snowy christmas memories to last a lifetime I imagine.

Edited November 15, 2016 by damianslaw

[sorepaw1]

On Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 22:21, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ok, I have just put £100 on white Christmas at Leeds at 5/1.  Bitter displaced PV hitting UK around Xmas period

 

 

I think your going to be quids in. Beers on you then lol

[sorepaw1]

2010 I had 16" of snow I live in a very remote part of North Yorkshire 500ft asl. And drive a subaru forester AWD .

Just fitted 4 snow tyres to it.

4 wheel drive is a must in this part of Yorkshire.... my neighbours have just bought a BMW ..ohhhhhh no. I bet they sell it next year. Lol.

I can guarantee a white Xmas only because Mrs sorepaw  said the bark on the  silver birch tree in the garden has gone pure white which means a harsh winter it did it in December 2010.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

48 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I think your going to be quids in. Beers on you then lol

And I have covered the bet with Aberdeen at 3s