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Nick F

Strong El Nino Now Forecast - How Will It Impact The Weather?

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I heard on radio 4 as you have stated although there are of course a lot of other factors that

 

"During the last El Niño event in 2009/10, northern Europe, including the UK, experienced an exceptionally cold winter"

 

will be interesting how it pans out.

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Interesting read. I think it would help to mention the difference between traditional El Ninos (like this one is forecast to be) and El Nino modoki events, such as the 2010 one. The positioning of the +ve temps anomalies will have different impacts on both regional weather and global teleconnections.

 

In the end, I guess there is no clear cut linkage to the weather here either way, although the Met Office study last year suggested that El Nino (along with several other factors) increases the chances of -ve NAO winters. http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Adam_Scaife/publication/261190527_Skilful_Long_Range_Prediction_of_European_and_North_American_Winters/links/0f3175363cabe16130000000.pdf

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Interesting read. I think it would help to mention the difference between traditional El Ninos (like this one is forecast to be) and El Nino modoki events, such as the 2010 one. The positioning of the +ve temps anomalies will have different impacts on both regional weather and global teleconnections.

 

In the end, I guess there is no clear cut linkage to the weather here either way, although the Met Office study last year suggested that El Nino (along with several other factors) increases the chances of -ve NAO winters. http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Adam_Scaife/publication/261190527_Skilful_Long_Range_Prediction_of_European_and_North_American_Winters/links/0f3175363cabe16130000000.pdf

 

The part of your post I've highlighted is well illustrated by the JMA ENSO circulation charts. First image is for El Nino positive 1+2 and second is Nino Modoki with heat in area 4. Parameter is 850 temperature, other options available in link at the bottom.

 

4wg8eql.pngAom08jA.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

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Interesting read. I think it would help to mention the difference between traditional El Ninos (like this one is forecast to be) and El Nino modoki events, such as the 2010 one. The positioning of the +ve temps anomalies will have different impacts on both regional weather and global teleconnections.

 

In the end, I guess there is no clear cut linkage to the weather here either way, although the Met Office study last year suggested that El Nino (along with several other factors) increases the chances of -ve NAO winters. http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Adam_Scaife/publication/261190527_Skilful_Long_Range_Prediction_of_European_and_North_American_Winters/links/0f3175363cabe16130000000.pdf

This blog was generally aimed at a more wider audience than just the Netweather forum, for example followers of Netweather on Facebook, twitter and beyond, so have not made it too technical and in depth. But, you make good points about the different types of El Nino events which can have different implications on global teleconnections.

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