Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 31/8/14 Onwards.

Recommended Posts

Nick has started a regular blog analysing the models and synoptic patterns - first one here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6167;sess=

 

An excellent blog but rather makes our ( well mine anyway, musn't speak for others) puny efforts a tad redundant.

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 06z op run, for the most part, is warm and anticyclonic, at least for southern, central & eastern parts of the uk with a huge area of high pressure stretching from the azores to eastern europe, however, the rest of this week shows a bit more fluidity with an atlantic influence, the far northwest of the uk being unsettled and sometimes windy with rain but not all the time, some brighter spells from time to time. The best weather will be across the south of the uk and especially the SE with rather higher pressure and predominantly dry with any fronts weakening as they push south into the higher pressure with temperatures nudging into the low 20's celsius, generally mid to high teens c further north and west but pleasant in any sunshine. The northwest of the uk never really settles down for the next few weeks with more wind, cloud and rain to come but high pressure builds strongly NE across the southeastern half of the uk with more in the way of sunshine and low 70's F although nights could be a bit chilly at times with a risk of fog patches. It takes until almost the end of low res for the atlantic to make any serious inroads and force the block much further east with cooler and more unsettled weather gradually taking over but that's nearly mid october range.

post-4783-0-26475600-1411472906_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-01857800-1411472949_thumb.pn

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nick has started a regular blog analysing the models and synoptic patterns - first one here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6167;sess=

 

nicely presented and objective as we would expect from Nick, hope it continues through the winter period as it will be a good spot to drop in for new folk, and for some of our more excitable and less objective regulars.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking good for the south for the next 10 days: post-14819-0-57310300-1411497832_thumb.g

 

The D10 mean from the GEFS: post-14819-0-52092000-1411497909_thumb.p D12 mean: post-14819-0-71659200-1411497953_thumb.p

 

Its around then (D12) the op introduces something less settled: post-14819-0-94183300-1411498023_thumb.p Ditto Control: post-14819-0-04586600-1411498095_thumb.p

 

GEM is also HP dominated for the south though more unsettled later in the run for the north compared to the GFS. However HP is never far away and any blip for the south looks transient: 

 

D9: post-14819-0-44363800-1411498256_thumb.p  D10: post-14819-0-59178600-1411498311_thumb.p

 

ECM at D9 more amplified than GEM (as usual), but not too dissimilar, in that the Atlantic attempts to encroach east towards the UK:

 

D9: post-14819-0-42876300-1411498421_thumb.g D10: post-14819-0-35489500-1411498588_thumb.g

 

As for temps in the south, from Friday looking like quite warm highs for the time of year: post-14819-0-25552000-1411498550_thumb.g

 

A very dry September for the part of Surrey I live at is now on the cards. CET is also likely to be higher than June and August, currently +1.4.

 

Looking into October at CFS, some chopping and changing but overall for the last week the recent run is close enough to the trend:

 

post-14819-0-49439700-1411498965_thumb.p

 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A quiet affair  in the days ahead. , the North getting some weather, the south very quiet For now.... :closedeyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

no sign of any major pattern change in my view into the second week in October unless something changes in the next 3-4 days. Nothing in the tropical torm situation showing at the moment either.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nick has started a regular blog analysing the models and synoptic patterns - first one here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6167;sess=

 

 

Have just read Nick's blog -- it's excellent. 

 

But when you compare this from Nick :

 

 

 

Upper ridging and surface high pressure are indicated to become more prominent across southern Britain over the weekend, so expectations are for predominantly dry weather with above normal temperatures across England and Wales, particularly by Sunday – with temperatures of 23-24C possible across S England with any sunshine. Lower pressure towards NW Britain and glancing Atlantic weather fronts across the far north suggests cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain at times for W Scotland and N Ireland over the weekend.

 

... it makes me wonder where the BBC are getting their local forecasts from for the coming weekend.  They surely need to revise them (and maybe they will) ... their suggestions for some Southern places in their 19:00 updates of largely cloudy/17C maxes are surely highly overcautious by now.

 

All the ouput I'm seeing suggests sunnier and warmer for many Southern areas on Saturday and Sunday ....

Edited by William of Walworth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As pointed out by some our very quiet summer like weather looks like continuing into October ,but with possible signs of pressure falling somewhat towards day 10 .I am realy looking forward to the winter period for yet another interesting Model discussion on this fantastic forum of ours ,looking around other sights available and im under the impression that we have some very talented posters on Net weather ,lets hope we have a winter with plenty of meat on the bones ,us posters will apply the mustard ,cheers gang  :gathering:  :drinks:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run shows an increasingly anticyclonic and warmer outlook next week with lots of sunshine as high pressure gradually migrates east which enables very warm (hot) air from southern europe to waft northwards into the uk, +15 T850 hPa flirts with the south, if this was to occur, we could be looking at mid to upper 20's celsius through early october across southern uk and very warm for the time of year further north too. Another feature of this run is a potential breakdown by the end of next week as a trough gets closer to the southwest, could be another thundery outbreak with even warmer and more humid conditions than last week. The far northwest is set to stay unsettled, relatively cooler and windier than elsewhere but for the majority of the BI, that's southern, central and eastern uk, essentially it's another summery spell with above average temperatures, very much on the warm side for the S and SE. :)

post-4783-0-88970100-1411505643_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-03842700-1411505662_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-48659900-1411505693_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-25463500-1411505878_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crikey this looks like a very warm set up.

 

post-18134-0-29809500-1411506350_thumb.g

 

Without running the risk of being thrown off a pier by Micheal Fish, this is surely `Indian Summer` territory

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The weekend still looks very settled indeed

EDM1-120.GIF?23-0

 

Into the following week, it will be a case of watching another ridge pushing up from the Azores, this one could potentially set up something similar to the spell of 2011.

EDM1-216.GIF?23-0

High pressure over the heart of Europe with the UK under a developing southerly flow.

GFS ens are a little flatter but still mostly settled into week 2.

gens-21-1-216.png?12

GEM ens similar to the ECM

gens-21-1-216.png

 

Worth watching this is. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The anomalies tonight still with the familiar pattern with perhaps weakening of HP in North America suggesting a more zonal pattern, albeit weak, The jet still meridional and north of the UK  On the surface the HP is mainly east to south east leading to some high temps, particularly with GEM and ECM. This is of course conditional on the actual positioning of the HP.

post-12275-0-00088300-1411507563_thumb.p

post-12275-0-97037800-1411507569_thumb.p

post-12275-0-47647500-1411507576_thumb.p

post-12275-0-29654200-1411507585_thumb.p

post-12275-0-24670200-1411507592_thumb.p

post-12275-0-84131900-1411507599_thumb.p

post-12275-0-94409000-1411507611_thumb.p

post-12275-0-30641700-1411507628_thumb.p

post-12275-0-16550900-1411507638_thumb.p

post-12275-0-74377300-1411507646_thumb.g

post-12275-0-03317400-1411507659_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

no sign of any major pattern change in my view into the second week in October unless something changes in the next 3-4 days. Nothing in the tropical torm situation showing at the moment either.

Agree with you there John, a very extended pattern we are in at the moment , well not a great deal on the horizon anyway. 

 

The atlantic tropical storm season is as dead as a dodo too. ( for the time being anyway) very strange ?

 

post-18134-0-34215500-1411508632_thumb.p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some very Autumnal charts showing into the new Month this morning by the GFS. With the block being pushed East allowing the Atlantic through. Interesting synoptic's..  

 

gfsnh-1-324.png?0gfsnh-0-300.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Feeling a little whimsical this morning. A cold front popping across next week?

 

post-12275-0-85465100-1411545123_thumb.p

post-12275-0-83170500-1411545131_thumb.p

post-12275-0-11764700-1411545140_thumb.p

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An increasingly warm and humid run from UKMO this morning as high pressure continues to dominate

 

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

 

The only 850's available at the time of posting are t144

 

UW144-7.GIF?24-06

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A nice blog from Jo - looking at the likely warm night on Thursday, the reasons for it and why thickness is a handy tool when forecasting:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6169;sess=

 

I wish I had a pound for the number of times I've worked them out manually using a tephigram. :)

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 06z op run shows early october becoming cooler, windier and unsettled with the atlantic looking much stronger than so far this autumn, however, the european anticyclonic block continues to look strong and low pressure is unable to push to the east of the uk, so based on this run we would eventually see an end to the warm and benign autumn so far, however, the euro block looks like sticking around for a while longer but I think the early to mid october period will see the generally stagnant pattern shaken up quite a lot and we could end up on the cold side of the polar front jet. I don't want to see the benign pattern persist throughout october, I have been happy to keep the warm fine weather thus far but i'm almost ready for a change and I hope the new month will deliver a major pattern change, I think it will but it may take until nearer mid october to see a full blown change to much cooler and unsettled.

post-4783-0-37511200-1411561010_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-87957700-1411561039_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-29232900-1411561070_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

personally, id have thought the gfs 06z is more in line with what the anomalies are predicting then the erratic ecm or the ukmo. i doubt the ukmo 00z will become reality, nice though it would be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS still going for a broad and mixed southwesterly flow next week

gfs-0-144.png?12

 

UKMO on the other hand is consistent with recent runs and builds heights substantially to our north east

UW144-21.GIF?24-18

 

The GEM also has a south easterly flow developing next week

gem-0-144.png?12

The GFS continues to be on its own really with trying to bring the Atlantic in, at least for the northern half of the UK.

 

Edit - GFS ens also show a mainly settled outlook 

gens-21-1-216.png?12

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS still going for a broad and mixed southwesterly flow next week

gfs-0-144.png?12

 

UKMO on the other hand is consistent with recent runs and builds heights substantially to our north east

UW144-21.GIF?24-18

 

The GEM also has a south easterly flow developing next week

gem-0-144.png?12

The GFS continues to be on its own really with trying to bring the Atlantic in, at least for the northern half of the UK.

GFS still going for a broad and mixed southwesterly flow next week

gfs-0-144.png?12

 

UKMO on the other hand is consistent with recent runs and builds heights substantially to our north east

UW144-21.GIF?24-18

 

The GEM also has a south easterly flow developing next week

gem-0-144.png?12

The GFS continues to be on its own really with trying to bring the Atlantic in, at least for the northern half of the UK.

The modelling of low heights to our north west is becoming a regular feature now.

How long can the Euro/Scandi.block hold back a complete breakthrough by the Atlantic is now the main interest.

GFS does show a deeper Icelandic low at T144 which brings more unsettled conditions further south next week.

It,s mean though is less bullish and much like the UK model and maintains more of n/s split as we go into October.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-192.png?12

The blocking high still very much around W.Europe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It would be fair to say that the blocked pattern has been very prominent over the start of the Autumn.  At this rate, I'd expect any significant pattern change, at the earliest, at the end of september / start of October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...