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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13


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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    hi jenny

     

    do not get nervous

     

    its hard to put out advise and be prepared

     

    without looking like scarmongering

     

    this situation is so complicated it may even come down to radar watching on the day

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    Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex

    Afternoon all,

     

    Just catching up with the posts - I see the storm is still on and there isn't a down grade in sight (which I must admit, I was expecting to see during the course of today)

     

    All I can say is stay safe and don't travel unless you have to!  I have to go to work on Monday morning, and I must say, I am not relishing the prospect, even though I am strangely excited at the same time!  Just wish I could be in the comfort of my front room watching it unfold!

     

    I think work can do one on Monday. I'll be working from home, assuming Internet and power hold up! I could go to our DR site in Chelmsford, but that might be in no better state than here.

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    heres what ukmo show

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    and the jet

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    now rainfall

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    looking at that

     

    the stronger winds are later than shown last night

     

    rush hour onwards a tad earlier for the far south west of the region

     

    looks like the low is slightly further north

     

    these winds still look very strong and the warnings are still justified

     

    will link these up with the fax charts soon

     

    how will the jet react to the storm here is the difficult call

     

    advise is still be prepared

     

     

    seperate note

     

    the far north east of the region could have bigger gusts as the storm clears

     

    sorry not great news

    The 12z Hirlam continues to echo the theme of the ECM this morning with the strongest winds tracking further to the north west

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    The low is shown as exiting further north into the North Sea than the rest of the modelling so far 

      this evening

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

    Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    hi tam

     

    too many variants at present

     

    will stick to fax charts now

     

    thats assuming they let me see the right timeframes

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    hi tam

     

    too many variants at present

     

    will stick to fax charts now

     

    thats assuming they let me see the right timeframes

    I showed the Hirlam because it reflects the fact that the METO had faith in the ECM in their last briefing. Hence the Fax has been mirrored to reflect the ECM up to now. So that is why the Hirlam, in following the ECM of this morning, is in line with that thinking as well.

    Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    i agree tam

     

    we all know how these lows have a mind of their own

     

    problem is i expect the fax to differ from hirlam tonight

     

    find out soon enoughPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    i agree tam

     

    we all know how these lows have a mind of their own

     

    problem is i expect the fax to differ from hirlam tonight

     

    find out soon enoughPosted Image

     

    It depends on what the ECM shows this evening. If it looks the same as this morning then I think that there is a higher chance that the Fax will stick with that accordingly. On that basis the Hirlam may have some relevance. Time will tell.

     

    The NAE looks too fast and I am not sure that the GFS is modelling the windfields accurately. This is based on an interpretation of what Ian F reported from the METO briefing this morning

    Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl

    Bit gutted as im in blackpool for tomoz onwards,would love to witness it,also to keep an eye on the house and garden,ill have wi-fi so will be popping in from time to time,enjoy it but above anything else,stay safe people,and dont take unecessary risks.if you see a mondeo taxi fly past youre street with quayside cars on it,please inform me

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    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    I'm hoping of course that damage wont be as bad at 1987.

    Someone on here proposed that it definitely wont be. 

    How confident are we ? 100% , 90%, 50 %, cannot guess ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    The severe storm and why it’s not a hurricane

    The storm which is due to develop tomorrow night and affect the UK during Monday is a mid latitude storm, the sort which affect us through the autumn and winter. These are formed in a very different way – by the meeting of different air masses on what is known as the polar front, leading to low pressure (storms) forming, often around the latitude of the UK.

    The storm which is due tomorrow is expected to bring very strong winds and heavy rain, and we are warning of winds gusting 60-80 mph quite widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

    Winds of that strength are classified on the Beaufort scale as ‘hurricane force 12’ but that is not the same as being a hurricane. Winds of this strength could bring down trees or cause structural damage, potentially causing transport disruption or power cuts and we are working closely with the resilience community to ensure they are prepared for the expected conditions.

    http://metofficenews...ot-a-hurricane/

    Edited by MKsnowangel
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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Tomorrow would be a great time to make sure any equipment in garden is either secure or brought in as come Monday morning this could be a issue. I have just spoke to my grandparents who head out on Monday morning to do shopping and other things, I have suggested they stay inside. I hope a lot of you take some time to think of people and to try and play a part in making some damage limitations.

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    I'm hoping of course that damage wont be as bad at 1987.

    Someone on here proposed that it definitely wont be. 

    How confident are we ? 100% , 90%, 50 %, cannot guess ?

    Based on the estimates given thus far, and what the modelling suggests, this storm looks to have a central pressure some 20mb higher than the Oct 87 storm and also the wind (more especially gusts) about 25 mph less. So still very strong, but nothing of the same magnitude.

     

    Its not a case of giving categorically precise predictions, no-one can do that, but one can work with all the evidence and expert opinion. Which is a good thing to cut through any unecessary exaggeration, hype and scare mongering.

    Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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    Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

    The ignorance of some folk baffles me at times.

     

    My neighbour has been undertaking a home swap all this week. Granted the changeover date was set weeks ago so not much they could do about that but all week I have been warning them of the potential storm and urging them to dispose of their flat  clearance items sensibly. Although we have 'bin' areas outside our properties our local council operate a plastic bag collection only. The bags are various colours according to the type of rubbish they contain. Each 'bin area' holds about 3 large bags.

     

    The old neighbour moved out, dumping their bags, boxes and cartons all over the place, and the new neighbour moved in, dumping all their bags, boxes and cartons all over the place. Hence the 3 bag bin area resembles a scene from the 1970's at the height of the ' Winter of Discontent'. No exaggeration there must be at least 30-40 bags of various content and at least a dozen large empty cardboard boxes piled high and wide just waiting for lift off.

     

    Our refuse collections run like clockwork once a week, I can set my watch by them almost. 6am every Monday morning. Should be interesting to see the state of our little Close by the time they arrive. Some people are so thoughtless.

     

    Apologies, rant over.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

    ITV2 film tonight at 7:45pm:

     

    Twister - Fast paced action adventure starring Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton. A tornado-chasing scientist couple get the chance to test a new measuring device on some powerful twisters.

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

    By the looks of the clouds, extremely heavy rain set to fall. However bbc weather only suggest light rain. 

     

    Sky's better. A much more in depth feature. And the reporter outside the MetO said "don't travel unless you absolutely have to".

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells

    At this stage, looks like a typical strong autumm gale. Based on current charts, comparing with the '87 storm is ridiculous - nowhere near, at the moment, and the charts would have change dramatically, which is unlikely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

    Hi all, a quick question....we live in Surrey but had planned to go see sister in law in Kent tomorrow, meaning we'd be driving home around 8/9pm.

    Would u a) call it off, b ) go but come home at Xpm time or c) keep plans cos severe storm not until Monday?

    Just a little quiz for u, lol!!

    Thanx,

    H x

    Edited by weathergeek
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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

    Rain and fairly gusty wind here in Ippy. Could this be the 'entree' before the main course on Sunday/Monday?

    The cats don't seem happy to be out much either; and last night even Banshee, the senior cat came in without any coaxing. Do they know something is going to happen.................?

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    Hi all, a quick question....we live in Surrey but had planned to go see sister in law in Kent tomorrow, meaning we'd be driving home around 8/9pm. Would u a) call it off, b ) go but come home at Xpm time or c) keep plans cos severe storm not until Monday?Just a little quiz for u, lol!!Thanx,H x

    I think you just answered your own question there with C Edited by MKsnowangel
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