Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[beng]

 

It is the lowest amber in terms of likelyhood, and the highest on the impact scale.

 

Hadn't seen the matrix before - great idea - maybe the Daily Express could adopt it! :-)

Edited October 24, 2013 by beng

[Tamara]

Interesting but much of a concern. Very rare set-up and rare for this to evolve over South UK.

Its not especially rare  Most autumns and winters we have quite similar scenarios with potentially fast intensifying low pressure systems forming on seconday waves from a parent upper trough that sits over or usually to the north of the UK. Some develop accordingly in reality to predictions, whilst others come to much less or very little at all

Edited October 24, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Bobby]

I have a gut instinct that it will be a dud and nothing more than heavy rain and breezy across the south. Often seems to go that way in my experience. Potential for something severe is there though, I do like a good Autumnal storm!

[Insert Name Here]

Which is multiple times a year, no doubt. This storm looks like a one in thirty(ish) year event for the SE. Of course, it might not happen at all. I wouldn't sneer at tribes in the Sahara who might be expecting 12 inches of rain in a night because it rains that much, and more, further south in the tropics ....

 

They do it so many times they are bound to right once in a while

 

No sneering here.

 

Im lamenting the frequent lack of warnings for similar events farther north. Nice to see early warnings being given for the south but I have unfortunately seen storms like this come to fruition up here with sometimes no formal warnings whatsoever. 

 

A serious storm is equally serious to anybody who happens to be unfortunate enough to find themselves under it. 

 

I hope this one turns out to be a damp squib whatever track it may take.

[Phantom2]

No sneering here.

 

Im lamenting the frequent lack of warnings for similar events farther north. Nice to see early warnings being given for the south but I have unfortunately seen storms like this come to fruition up here with sometimes no formal warnings whatsoever. 

 

A serious storm is equally serious to anybody who happens to be unfortunate enough to find themselves under it. 

 

I hope this one turns out to be a damp squib whatever track it may take.

 

I hope it'll be a damp squib too ..sadly I don't think it will be, I will be at work dealing with all the trees down, flooding and people hit with flying slates etc etc ..looking at the models and other charts I think I'm in for a busy shift  !!

[Average Joe]

I hope it'll be a damp squib too ..sadly I don't think it will be, I will be at work dealing with all the trees down, flooding and people hit with flying slates etc etc ..looking at the models and other charts I think I'm in for a busy shift  !!

 My sympathies, that'll be me too unfortunately. That's makes me such a miserable so & so when everyone's breaking out the bunting when snow arrives as it has a huge impact on what I/we do. But hey ho....it'll soon blow through with a bit of luck. :-) 

[VillagePlank]

Im lamenting the frequent lack of warnings for similar events farther north. Nice to see early warnings being given for the south but I have unfortunately seen storms like this come to fruition up here with sometimes no formal warnings whatsoever.

 

It may well be because of the way the MetO structure their warnings: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/guide/warnings.html#wa

 

As you can see you can have the likelyhood of an event at 100% but if it is has no impact, then no warning will be given. ie no warning is going to be given for some rock in the middle of nowhere with only seagulls for a population under any circumstances. How they progress their impacts is, no doubt, some sort of function of population, loss of GDP etc etc, which makes events of a less serious nature, but with a higher impact, more likely to reach whatever internal thresholds the MetO might have. In this case we have a high impact event with less likelyhood of occuring (at the minute) in an area of the greatest GDP in the country with the most dense population. I'd say a warning was warranted.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Jimmyh]

Its not especially rare  Most autumns and winters we have quite similar scenarios with potentially fast intensifying low pressure systems forming on seconday waves from a parent upper trough that sits over or usually to the north of the UK. Some develop accordingly in reality to predictions, whilst others come to much less or very little at all

 

I would tend to disagree with this. nothing is forecast like this for at least 20 years. if in the se tamara it does come off to the full potential then it will be something.

[Phantom2]

 My sympathies, that'll be me too unfortunately. That's makes me such a miserable so & so when everyone's breaking out the bunting when snow arrives as it has a huge impact on what I/we do. But hey ho....it'll soon blow through with a bit of luck. :-) 

Yes Duncan ..I was working in 1987 when the storm hit, probably the most manic shift I've ever worked in Police ops ..I really could do without a repeat of that day thank you very much !

[Coast]

Strong words this early on:

 

 

The Met Office said the public in the affected area "should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds. There is uncertainty about the timing of the storm at this stage.

 

Colin Seddon from the BBC Weather Centre said it "is certainly the worst storm we've seen this year". He said there is potential for gusts of wind over 80mph, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent.

 

Rain warning

 

Northern England, the Midlands, southern England and Wales have also been issued with a yellow warning for rain on Monday. Yellow alerts are the lowest level of the three warnings. The Met Office said people in those areas should "be aware of the potential for surface water flooding" because of the rain. The Met Office's chief forecaster said: "A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday.

 

"This is expected to run north-eastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. "There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in south-westerly winds ahead of the low and west to north-westerly winds behind it."

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390

[VillagePlank]

I would tend to disagree with this. nothing is forecast like this for at least 20 years. if in the se tamara it does come off to the full potential then it will be something.

 

I've see a few over the years from GooFuS. Normally they fail to hold traction, and MetO and ECMWF don't concur, so it ends up being an academic exercise of will GooFuS track it North or South, and will it continue to deepen, how deep it will really be etc. Never normally makes discussion outside specialist weather forums such as this one.

Yes Duncan ..I was working in 1987 when the storm hit, probably the most manic shift I've ever worked in Police ops ..I really could do without a repeat of that day thank you very much !

 

... and that was the day following the night of the storm (ie it hit when most of us were sleeping, not driving to work etc etc)

[Paul]

Jo Farrow has written a blog about the potential for a severe storm here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5477;sess=

[Jimmyh]

i think the fear of this one at the moment is that GooFuS really hasn't picked this one compared to the other suites. I feel there will be a sting in the tail and will take us back to the January 1990 style storm. If the prediction is correct, travelling to work could be interesting....

[Jo Farrow]

Thanks for the replies folks....it seems unusual from my experiences of keeping tabs on severe weather events such as snowfalls etc, so thought I'd ask the question. There's also that lingering nagging doubt that for once rags like the Express could be right, which needless to say I hope isn't the case! Thanks again!

It's not about the DE being right, if you scream and shout about enough Autumn Lows , once in while one will be a real storm.  Same for heatwave temp records, next snow storm etc. 

This could be an event into Monday and for forecasters and wild weather lovers it gives a bit of excitement

[Boro Snow]

some of said and me included that lorenzo might have a part to play, well not anymore its no longer there

 

[AWD]

This is the forecast for North Western France from Meteo France, the French equivalent of our Met Office. Windspeeds are shown in km/h.

Sunday sustained windspeeds;

Sunday max gusts;

And Monday's sustained windspeeds;

And max gusts for Monday;

And this is the forecast for Saint Lo, on the northern French coast;

IMO, based on those forecasts, either the French aren't expecting it too deepen excessively or they are expecting the worst of the winds to be north of the country. Nothing really more than 60mph shown there. Some model output and forecasts we have access to hint at higher windspeeds than that, although worth noting, the above is still pretty damn windy!

Edited October 24, 2013 by AWD

[Tamara]

I would tend to disagree with this. nothing is forecast like this for at least 20 years. if in the se tamara it does come off to the full potential then it will be something.

There have been several rapidly deepening high impact low pressure systems predicted in recent years that either have been realised (October 2000, October 2002, several during the period of autumn 2006 to November 2009), have been near misses (f.e February 28 2010 which caused damage on the nearby continent)...or have simply not occured at all as forecasted - such as, f.e, in the last two years or so. That is, if we are talking about southern/south eastern england, because further north there have been a few relatively significant wind storm events in the not too distant past anyway.

 

The potential impact of this is (should it occur) obviously impossible to compare exactly like for like before the event! but the system that arrived in mid November 2009, just f.e, was at least as bad as what this is suggested to be. And 'suggested' is the operative word. Gusts of wind between 80 and 90mph were recorded on some southern and western coasts and hills during that storm of Nov 14/15 2009. That matches the current worst predicted scenario here I believe.

 

The potential of this low pressure system, at this stage is based on the same 'ifs' that previous forecasted low pressure systems have been and it conceivable that the low might not realise this potential. Much as I previously stated.

 

In my opinion it is best to keep a sense of perspective and not exaggerate these things, as much as they shouldn't be ignored either. There is too much sensationalising of these events and that makes perspective all the more necessary.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[radiohead]

BBC Weather video on Monday's potential.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24655853

[Coast]

BBC Weather video on Monday's potential.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24655853

 

Good analysis from Nick and not overstating it, yet still giving enough warning 'if' it comes off.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Coast

[Bobby]

Close up pressure and wind speed from ECM, violent storm force in the bristol chanel, storm force many places.

 

[radiohead]

Met Office have released a video on Monday's potential :

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne3rDk1XM5M

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/Severe-storm-risk

 

Normally Atlantic storms of this type develop much further to the west of the UK and are waning in strength by the time they reach the UK and Ireland.

This storm is more unusual, developing much closer to the UK and potentially tracking across the country while still in its most powerful phase. A strong jet stream and warm air close to the UK are both contributing to the development and strength of the storm.

 

Edited October 24, 2013 by radiohead

[PolarWarsaw]

My gut says it will sleep south and east of here, with the Benelux and N/E France taking the brunt of it. Moderate rain and a slight breeze here IMO.

[Paul]

Michael Fish is contemplating putting his hurricane hat back on...

 

[Iceni]

I'm sure all our friends in the outer hebridies and northern isles are wondering what the fuss is all about.

 

Our friends in the outer Hebridies don't have any massive 50 metre trees crashing down on them to worry about.

 

I know that because I've been there. Frequent windy conditions prevent them growing at all.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Iceni

[VillagePlank]

Our friends in the outer Hebridies don't have any massive 50 metre trees crashing down on them to worry about. I know - I've been there.

 

Or over ambitious lorry drivers who definitely can make it across the M2 bridge in Rochester 'just-in-time' to beat their taco and make it to the channel ferry (you just know that the M20 will be closed near Vigo!)

Edited October 24, 2013 by Sparkicle