Update 1pm Sat 26th
A major difference from Thursday's forecast, is that now there looks like disruptive winds will still be affecting SE, E.Anglia, the Wash in the middle of Monday, not just before daylight hours.
Thursday
Looks like the UK is in for some stormy weather to end this coming weekend.
There seem to be 2 episodes developing, one for northern parts of the UK on Sunday. An autumnal low bringing wet and windy weather, particularly to Western Scotland in the afternoon, but also SW gales for Irish Sea, N.Ireland, northern England and the Central Belt. It won’t be very nice end to Sunday but just a seasonal storm.
The second event is the potentially more worrying one. Risk of severe gales force winds, even storm force winds with damaging gusts of 80mph. More likely to affect England and Wales, especially the south.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/guide/beaufortscale.html
This setup, meteorologically has similar characteristics to the Great 1987 storm, although now we have much more data (particularly satellite data) to look at. Mike Fish has done his weekly Netweather video broadcast, have a look what he has to say!
Driving rain wetting the trees, many of which are still in leaf. This means they are heavier, more of a barrier to the strong winds and at this time of year more likely to come down than when bare in winter. Monday is half term for some UK schools, although first day back for some Scottish ones. The journey to work could be delayed on Monday if these winds do rattle through, trains, ferries and on the roads.
GFS has first deep low over Scotland and N.Ireland on Sunday with a secondary deep low over southern Britain Sunday into Monday
UK Met Office is going for a significant low from 00Z Monday whizzing across the UK probably before dawn Monday
ECMWF has a low moving over Scotland on Sunday and a much later secondary low over England and Wales during Monday
Our NetWeather model, which is based on the GFS, has one low over Scotland on Sunday and the nastier low over England and Wales on Monday morning with trouble for the first rush hour of the working week. Channel coasts getting a battering.
Remember there is uncertainty in this, the timings, the strength and most importantly the path. If this low goes further south over France, then the UK escapes the worst of the winds.
If you are a member of our online forum, have a read of this guide.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64599-explanation-of-explosive-cyclogenesis/This is what everyone is watching for, 'Explosive Cyclogenesis' it’s what progress and huge research was made on, after the 1987 storm
For satellite pictures use
NE Atlantic, Water Vapour is there on the NOAA site
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
