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Jane Louise

Convective / Storm Discussion - 23rd August onwards 2013

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Guest William Grimsley

WOW! Look at this for here this evening! I can't wait! :D

 

UK precipitation. Valid: Fri 06/09 18:00.

 

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UK storm risk. Valid: 06/09 18:00.

Posted Image

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: 06/09 18:00.

 

Posted Image

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Dan's UKASF forecast slightly more encouraging for some:

 

post-6667-0-90640300-1378450034_thumb.jp

 

Synopsis

 
Trough disruption sees a sharp upper trough become a cut-off low over Britain through the forecast period. In the post-frontal airmass, cooling mid-levels atop warm LST/SSTs will generate widespread convection.
Discussion
 
... EAST ANGLIA, EAST MIDLANDS, NE ENGLAND ...
 
There is a slim risk during the first half of this forecast period, given residual instability, for some elevated convection to develop over these areas, with the low potential for lightning activity. Given a favourable shear environment, if any cells can develop they could become well-organised/long-lived with frequent lightning activity.
 
 
... SW ENGLAND, S WALES ...
 
In the post frontal enviroment, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will develop over the highlighted areas, particularly offshore and during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few hundred J/kg CAPE and ELTs down to -40C suggests some lightning activity is possible, and may consider upgrading S/SE Ireland to a SLGT. Shear is best early in the afternoon, decreasing to fairly weak values by evening as the base of the upper trough gradually approaches. Given cool air aloft, hail is possible in some stronger cores, locally up to 2.0cm in diameter. Coastal wind convergence may produce a funnel or waterspout.
 

:good:

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Guest William Grimsley

Dan's UKASF forecast slightly more encouraging for some:

 

 

Posted Image

That looks good. At least I'm under the isolated area. I would love to be under the slight area, though. Posted Image

Edited by William Grimsley

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Looking through GFS Lightning Wizard, the best of the CAPE doesn't seem to transfer to land until later when it is diminishing:

 

Posted Image

 

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But there is some good convergence around the SW:

 

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and steepening lapse rates:

 

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Still a chance for the SW and Wales:

 

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If not, there's always the rain....

 

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Northern coasts of Cornwall, Devon and Somerset should get a good sprinkling:

 

Posted Image

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NMM seems to want things later in the day too, TT index is way up all day but again, no CAPE on land until early evening:

 

post-6667-0-26758300-1378452667_thumb.pn post-6667-0-28971700-1378452673_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-47857200-1378452668_thumb.pn post-6667-0-96117400-1378452669_thumb.pn

 

I still think the North SW coasts and South Wales are the sweet spots as such:

 

post-6667-0-20988900-1378452671_thumb.pn

Edited by Coast

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Guest William Grimsley

NMM seems to want things later in the day too, TT index is way up all day but again, no CAPE on land until early evening:

 

Posted ImageSBCAPE NMM 060913 18z.png Posted ImageMLCAPE NMM 060913 18z.png

 

Posted ImageTT Index NMM 060913 12z.png Posted ImageTT Index NMM 060913 15z.png

 

I still think the North SW coasts and South Wales are the sweet spots as such:

 

Posted ImageTT Index NMM 060913 18z.png

Still looks good for me, but as you said, the N Coasts of SW England are best favored for showers. :D

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Already sferics about Devon and Cornwall. Just need them to push a bit inland.

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It would be cool to get something here but I don't think we will going with gut instinct

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Guest William Grimsley

There were 2 showers in Dartington which were moderate and 1 is now sat on top of here. I'm waiting for it to get heavier or even produce thunder! :D

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Yeah nothing here just light rain, at the moment.

Chances of catching a storm in th UK nowadays are unlikely. If you want to see something, ask your parents if they will go out for a drive somewhere and see if you intercept any storms. This will save the complete disappointment later this evening when yet again you've had zilch.
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Guest William Grimsley

Chances of catching a storm in th UK nowadays are unlikely. If you want to see something, ask your parents if they will go out for a drive somewhere and see if you intercept any storms. This will save the complete disappointment later this evening when yet again you've had zilch.

To be honest, I haven't had zilch, neither will I be dissapointed this evening.

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Looks like a nice little storm on the north Devon coast. This could trek across north Somerset/South Wales along the Bristol Channel.

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What the hail!Posted Image

 

that's incredible,some people don't see as much as that in winter,whether it be hail or snow.

 

Cornwall probably never see that much equivalent of snow in the winter. 

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Cornwall probably never see that much equivalent of snow in the winter. 

Yes,i was broadly speaking but localy you are probably right,maybe a new trend for this winter darn sarth.lol!

 

convection wise for our part of the world is looking like a damp squib now,looking forward to winter and hopefully get a better year for storms next year.

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Yes,i was broadly speaking but localy you are probably right,maybe a new trend for this winter darn sarth.lol!

 

convection wise for our part of the world is looking like a damp squib now,looking forward to winter and hopefully get a better year for storms next year.

 

Still time for thunderstorms yet although I am afraid I agree with you, I can feel it in my bones that the best of the storms are done for this season. Roll on the deep snow drifts and blizzards Posted Image

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Roll on the deep snow drifts and blizzards Posted Image

I will have a drink to that SPosted Image

 

night all.

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One rather pleasant rumble of thunder around 5pm and that was our lot. I'm amazed that Falmouth received such bad weather, as I'm literally a mile down the road, and all we got here was moderate rain.

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Netweather Storm Forecast for the next 24 hours: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Might need to watch the skies. Slight risk for us is better than nothing Posted Image

 

Nice pics from cornwall btw the other half on holiday there right now need to ask her tomorrow how close she is to falmouth so it seems Posted Image

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