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Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-24 21:56:32
Valid: 25/06/2016 06z to 26/06/2016 06z



Upper trough axis toward the western side of UK on Friday continues to shift further east on Saturday, with slow-moving surface low pressure centred near the east coast, which will focus greatest instability for showers/storm production further east.


Trough of cold air aloft shifting slowly east atop of moist maritime surface flow warmed by sunny spells will create steep lapse rates and yield 300-900 j/kg CAPE per GFS and ECMWF. As a result ... heavy showers and thunderstorms will readily develop across the above areas after a dry start in many places. A few convergence zones are indicated by models, one from western Scotland southeast across Pennines of England and toward E Anglia ... perhaps another W-E zone across SE England. These zones will tend to focus and allow training of thunderstorms which will bring the threat of locally high spot rainfall totals and localised flooding risk given slow-movement of storms. Also storms may produce hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Weak winds aloft and convergence will create ideal conditions for funnel clouds or even isolated brief/weak tornadoes with stronger updrafts. These diurnally driven storms will tend to die out after dark.

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Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.

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Key - what do the risk levels mean?

Thunderstorms - Severe thunderstorms unlikely to occur, slight risk of hail, gusting winds and localised flooding.

Slight Risk - A slight risk of severe convective weather exists. Hail >2.0cm diameter, wind gusts exceeding 50mph or 5-10% risk of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or > 30% risk of localised flooding.

Moderate Risk - A moderate risk of severe convective weather exists. Hail 4-5cm in diameter, or wind gusts of 60-70mph, or a 10-15% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or >50% risk of localised flooding.

High Risk - A high risk of severe convective weather exists. Rarely, if ever used on the UK. Hail >5cm, or wind gusts in excess of 80mph, or >20% risk of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or >70% risk of localised flooding.

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