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Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-05-28 08:09:58
Valid: 28/05/2016 0600z to 29/05/2016 0600z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SAT 28TH MAY 2016

Synopsis

Increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough to the west of Europe, with its base moving into western Iberia today, drives a warm and moist S to SWly mid-upper upper flow across western and Central Europe including the UK. A slack pressure pattern exists across the UK and Ireland today between high pressure to the N of the U.K. And low pressure centred just west of Iberia. 

... EIRE/N IRELAND, WALES, S ENGLAND and THE MIDLANDS ...

Scattered heavy showers and a few elevated thunderstorms will continue to edge slowly north over the next few hours across parts of SE England, slow-moving nature of these showers/storms will lead to localised flooding where they pass.

Then as morning cloud breaks up elsewhere by early afternoon, steep lapse rates aloft above a fairly moist boundary layer warmed by the sunshine is indicated to contribute to around 300-800 j/kg CAPE developing this afternoon across the above areas. Weak ascent aloft and surface convergence will likely allow further heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop more widely this afternoon in this zone of instability. Despite weak vertical shear, leading to pulse-type storms, slow-movement of cells may lead to flash flooding locally, also strong updrafts / high cloud tops may allow growth of isolated  marginally large hail. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning maybe an additional hard to outdoor activities. Therefore have issued a MARGINAL risk for severe weather. Storms should fade after dark as diurnal heating supporting afternoon storms wanes.



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Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.

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Key - what do the risk levels mean?

Thunderstorms - Severe thunderstorms unlikely to occur, slight risk of hail, gusting winds and localised flooding.

Slight Risk - A slight risk of severe convective weather exists. Hail >2.0cm diameter, wind gusts exceeding 50mph or 5-10% risk of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or > 30% risk of localised flooding.

Moderate Risk - A moderate risk of severe convective weather exists. Hail 4-5cm in diameter, or wind gusts of 60-70mph, or a 10-15% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or >50% risk of localised flooding.

High Risk - A high risk of severe convective weather exists. Rarely, if ever used on the UK. Hail >5cm, or wind gusts in excess of 80mph, or >20% risk of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or >70% risk of localised flooding.

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