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Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-07-27 21:21:27
Valid: 28/07/2016 0600z to 29/07/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - THURS 28TH-JULY-2016

Synopsis

Upper low persists to the north of the UK centred over the Norwegian Sea, driving a deeply cyclonic westerly flow across the UK. A shortwave trough and associated jet max, originating from far NW Atlantic/NE Canada will moves east across Nern UK on Thursday beneath the upper low to the north. A surface low will cross N. Ireland late morning, then across N England in the afternoon/early evening. Attendant warm sector will move across England and Wales late morning and afternoon, cold front clearing E England by early evening.

… WALES, MIDLANDS, S and E ENGLAND …

A shallow layer of quite moist air will persist across the above areas into the afternoon during peak heating post cold front clearance. This warmed moist surface layer combined with steepening lapse rates as shortwave trough glances as it moves across Nern UK will yield a narrow pool of around 300-700 j/kg CAPE that will follow near/ behind the cold front clearing east. This unstable zone should support the development of isolated or scattered thunderstorms for a time across the above areas.

Strong westerly jet streak aloft and veering winds as low moves through is indicated to yield 30-40 knots of Deep layer shear and 15-20 knots of low-level shear ... which is sufficient for organisation of any storms that develop. So there is a small risk of hail, strong wind gusts and torrential rain leading to flash-flooding. Low LCL/cloud base and locally enhanced low-level shear means funnel clouds or even brief/weak tornadoes can’t be ruled out too. However, with what looks like an isolated/uncertain risk of strong thunderstorms – have refrained from issuing severe probabilities.



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Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.

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Key - what do the risk levels mean?

Thunderstorms - Severe thunderstorms unlikely to occur, slight risk of hail, gusting winds and localised flooding.

Slight Risk - A slight risk of severe convective weather exists. Hail >2.0cm diameter, wind gusts exceeding 50mph or 5-10% risk of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or > 30% risk of localised flooding.

Moderate Risk - A moderate risk of severe convective weather exists. Hail 4-5cm in diameter, or wind gusts of 60-70mph, or a 10-15% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or >50% risk of localised flooding.

High Risk - A high risk of severe convective weather exists. Rarely, if ever used on the UK. Hail >5cm, or wind gusts in excess of 80mph, or >20% risk of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or >70% risk of localised flooding.

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