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A Winter's Tale

Winter 2011/2012

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Those were different people, those of us who have been around the forum for many years remember that there was a time when you couldn't predict any season to be even slightly below normal around here without attracting a large crowd of critics, some of whom used to say (for example) that there would never be months below 3.0 again (I think we have had four or five now) and that Britain had seen the last of snow, etc. Fred certainly wasn't "caught out" by any forecast of heat in 2007.

As to this coming winter, just about every forecast I have heard so far has spoken about potential for severe cold and snow, where people seem to disagree so far is whether it comes mainly before or after New Years. It seems unfair to single out one person when so many are looking in that direction. Another place where you were making faulty assumptions is on the "hopecasting" side. People who make these forecasts have methods that they apply to past data, now it's fair enough to criticize the methods, but they don't involve hopecasting. Chances are much greater that the methods are blind to bias, even if they are not proven or error-free, since they tend to be analogues from past years chosen for some similar external factor or some similar global setup already present. That would tend to make them either accurate physical models or random selections and in either case you wouldn't have bias such as cold-ramping, seeing what one wants to see. Now I wouldn't rule out that some forecasts out there have that basis, it would be human nature, but you can see from my own forecast there is no mild or cold bias, as I have roughly equal amounts of both showing up. Fred has made a confident assertion that there will be some extreme cold this coming winter. He's entitled to express that opinion here, I would say, after being generally right about it several times in the past few winters, and having given his reasons. And anyway, it just inhibits open discussion, or at least it could, doesn't actually seem to have that effect, when people dump on other opinions. It's a weather forum, not the boardroom of the Met Office -- at the end of the day, we are just enthusiasts (mostly) exchanging views, and not being paid for them especially not by the general public, so lighten up. (don't know why I would be defending Fred, if you met both of us, that would seem a bit funny actually).

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Blast From The Past's winter forecast very much came across as if he has clairvoyant abilities or powers akin to God. That is why I criticized it.

I'm not your mate.

Us northerners say that to everyone - calm yourself.

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Boo winter! When i come to power winter shall last one month and in that month thee will be copious amounts of snow, thundersnow and Christmas and every Christmas will be white. So basically the best bits of winter rolled into one month.

I am refusing to put the heating on until after my birthday.

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I'm going to copy this post and keep hold of it so I can use it to laugh at after winter's over.

Never saw anybody talk with such "certainty" about the upcoming summer definitely having an "extreme month" or any such thing, in mid-April! Talk about setting yourself up for a big fall!

This whole post is ramped up garbage! Just because it's what you want to see. Thanks for the laughs though.

Now, I'm just off to prepare my final thoughts on next July's record breaking heat and guarantee that we will break 40°C in SE England for once and for all!!!! LOL!

I already worked out nobody likes these posts from me but I say it like it is!!

I think, perhaps, that a slightly better approach would be to question Fred as to why he is so certain that we are to achieve an extreme month and to why a period of model forecasting of a southerly dipping jet stream (that hasn't occurred yet) increases his confidence so much. To ridicule makes you no better than the person that you believe is worthy of ridicule.

Two reasons why people are all forecasting colder than average winters. and they have nothing to do with QBO, ENSO, LA NINA and all this other justifications people are trying to use...

Firstly it's because they all WANT cold winters. This is all dream-cast stuff. The very fact we had two cold winters in a row actually by statistical averages, means the next one is highly unlikely to be so cold.

Secondly, it's due to this superstition that some kind of "unusual pattern" has developed to cause the recent colder winters and that we are stuck in it and therefore must get a third cold winter. Again unproven.

People made this mistake with summer 2006, believing (inc. the met office) that 2007 would be very hot. Egg on faces again. The weather WILL catch you all out.

You missed a third point here. To predict a cold winter gets you lots of positive rep whether it happens or not!!!!!

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I'm going to copy this post and keep hold of it so I can use it to laugh at after winter's over.

Never saw anybody talk with such "certainty" about the upcoming summer definitely having an "extreme month" or any such thing, in mid-April! Talk about setting yourself up for a big fall!

This whole post is ramped up garbage! Just because it's what you want to see. Thanks for the laughs though.

Now, I'm just off to prepare my final thoughts on next July's record breaking heat and guarantee that we will break 40°C in SE England for once and for all!!!! LOL!

I already worked out nobody likes these posts from me but I say it like it is!!

Not being funny but this is an internet forum, if a post actually makes you that mad then I suggest you

A) Get a life

cool.png Ignore it

This thread is for people who want to discuss the possibilities and up to now there are "hints" that it will be below average winter. OK people can't predict when or where it will snow but seriously to get agressive for that post? If you disagree then say "I disagree because of x y z" - just a word of advice there really is no need for an attitude like that bud good.gif

And as for the "say it how it is" then yes I agree you should but if you were stood in front of me while I was debating and you ranted like that ....well lets just say I wouldn't be too happy - there are ways in which you can say it how it is without sounding aggressive ;-)

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It's a weather forum, not the boardroom of the Met Office -- at the end of the day, we are just enthusiasts (mostly) exchanging views, and not being paid for them especially not by the general public, so lighten up. (don't know why I would be defending Fred, if you met both of us, that would seem a bit funny actually).

Hi Roger,

I personally am very impressed, at the days and weeks of research that you and the reputable few folk put into their LRF's and even their weekly forecasts. Meteorology is a science and like all sciences, it's there to be disected, manhandled and certain parts become simply disregarded and spat out, if in the aftermath, it didn't suit our tastebuds. What am I saying exactly rofl.gif , well, you non-believers should refer to the highlighted statements above.

In general, I use weather forums to LEARN, just like I often view TV programs and read books, simply to LEARN. mega_shok.gif Furthermore, how do us folk get to learn most things, from the more knowledgeable and being able to listen to others is a basic skill in this regard.rofl.gif

I'm no expert and in trying to remain on topic, for now my GUESS, would suggest a rich blend of Roger's and Fred's forecasts mixed together. However, my gut feeling would include a 70% to 30% swing towards it being milder than average across the 3 months.

Jeez, it's still 68 days until the winter equinox, perhaps even I need to lighten up. tease.gif

Sorry, rant over, no more from me, I'll await views from the more knowledgeable. drinks.gifblum.gif

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

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Even Netweather's LFR has things maybe warming up into 2012 so people shouldn't get there hopes up just becasue certain forecasts in the media state "Cold Winter", "Mini Ice age" ect.

Winter

December

Winter is expected to begin with the northern blocking still in place, and this means that temperatures are forecast to be below average for much of the country. Rainfall levels are forecast to be close to, or a little below normal for the time of year.

January

As is always the case, the further into the forecast we go, the lower confidence there is so please bear this in mind as we look ahead to January..

Current expectations are that January will bring something of a change in pattern with Atlantic low pressure having more influence and bring milder temperatures with rainfall close to the the seasonal average too.

Even if December is cold it's not certain to have the same levels of snow as last year.

http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

i don't remember December 2010 having high levels of precipitation across the UK? yet many people got a lot of snow so don't jump to conclusions... also that forecast says CLOSE TO or A LITTLE below average (y)

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So I beg to differ, I have not missed the point of this thread or forum. You might have done in fact, if you think nobody should be allowed to question the LRFs of people, as this is a discussion forum.

You haven't questioned. You have ridiculed. Two completely different things altogether.

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Blast From The Past's winter forecast very much came across as if he has clairvoyant abilities or powers akin to God. That is why I criticized it.

I'm not your mate.

I think Liam was just trying to be friendly/polite , so no real need for that is there?

Its a forum, people are entitled to their opinion and many on here back up their forecasts - besides, this far from winter where few forecasts, if any will be fully accurate there is no real point in going this far! So if you don't like their forecast and many on here have similar forecasts in terms of severe cold some point this winter, then just ignore them and none of this will happen! smile.png

Anyway I have no real clue what this winter will bring, though I have seen a lot about the northern blocking that should be in place this winter, so I would expect to get some sort of cold, potentially harsh cold spell at some point! This far out its not certain, and if snow/how much will fall is not really possible to say! Can still keep my fingers crossed for some decent snow though :)

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Blast From The Past's winter forecast very much came across as if he has clairvoyant abilities or powers akin to God. That is why I criticized it.

You have criticised every LRF that has been discussed so far. You even criticised mine for it sounding like how last winter panned out; which, may I add, is far more removed from reality than any of the LRFs I've seen on here so far in terms of a reason to slate something!

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U say all this is just dreamcast stuf u ready to laugh but would u come back and post if what people r saying r rite? Also the met forecasted a mild winter last year and look what happend every1 got cort with their pance down.

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Anyways moving on, I reckon we will get some snow this year and will be mostly cold, but along with some milder interludes :)

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U say all this is just dreamcast stuf u ready to laugh but would u come back and post if what people r saying r rite? Also the met forecasted a mild winter last year and look what happend every1 got cort with their pance down.

Can someone translate please?

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Blast From The Past's winter forecast very much came across as if he has clairvoyant abilities or powers akin to God. That is why I criticized it.

In your opinion that is. I have the freedom to express my opinion about certain forecasts and so do we all. I and everyone else is allowed to express if they think that -

- forecasts are unrealistically certain too far out

- they are influenced by the desires and bias of the person generating them

and that I never said nobody should ever make long range forecasts.

So I beg to differ, I have not missed the point of this thread or forum. You might have done in fact, if you think nobody should be allowed to question the LRFs of people, as this is a discussion forum.

Well why don't you actually discuss and question peoples forecasts?! Instead of trying to shoot down the memebers who have taken time and effort into voicing their views on the coming winter.

Oh and regarding your comment ''I'm not your mate'' I was trying to be polite - believe me 'mate' can be used many ways up north and not all end pleasantly.

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Whaaaaaaaat?

Did you even go to school?

False.

I criticized yours for that reason and blast's for another. That's two. If I spent all my life criticizing some of the other forecast's too I'd never get anything else done!

I guarentee you wouldn't critisise if someone forecast a mild winter, because that is what you want obviously :L

Chill out pal!

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Wow!

help.gifbomb.gif

It is the middle of October and Winter 2011/12 is already making the forum explode!

I blame BFTP..........please keep your opinions to yourself, they are very volatile! blum.gif

I think we all need to take a deep breath and cold.gifdirol.gif

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Yeah agree with RD - can we just leave this now as its gone too far and move on, back on topic please people, thank you :)

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Wow!

help.gifbomb.gif

It is the middle of October and Winter 2011/12 is already making the forum explode!

I blame BFTP..........please keep your opinions to yourself, they are very volatile! blum.gif

I think we all need to take a deep breath and cold.gifdirol.gif

lol Aye we do although friendly banter is great I have no idea what a certain member's issue is, maybe it's the potential fuel bills rofl.gif

(Sorry back on topic now)

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There was a thread last year telling us not to get into 'wars' based on our conflicting weather preferences.. come on people.. act civilised!

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Wow!

help.gifbomb.gif

It is the middle of October and Winter 2011/12 is already making the forum explode!

I blame BFTP..........please keep your opinions to yourself, they are very volatile! blum.gif

I think we all need to take a deep breath and cold.gifdirol.gif

Well I'm going to take this time to thank everyone who has constructed an LRF and given up valuable time to do so; also to all the people who contribute to the constructive debate and make for enjoyable and educational reading.

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There was a thread last year telling us not to get into 'wars' based on our conflicting weather preferences.. come on people.. act civilised!

Yep!

I have to admit, that back there was approaching Nuclear Armageddon! help.giflaugh.png

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lol Aye we do although friendly banter is great I have no idea what a certain member's issue is, maybe it's the potential fuel bills rofl.gif

(Sorry back on topic now)

lol I find it quite amusing that the certain member seems to dislike cold yet lives in Buxton.....oh the irony. Life has dealt a bitter,bitter blow.

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Guys, there's a report function available for a reason, please use it rather than biting back at people within threads - it helps no-one and just makes sure the thread heads even further downhill than it already may have done.

Going to lock this one in a sec so we can start afresh...

New thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71234-winter-201112-general-discussion/

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