Long range weather forecast
This long range forecast for the UK is updated once a month. Using the latest long range data from the NCEP and then run through custom software here at Netweather it is on the cutting edge of technology for long range weather forecasting. It is important to bear in mind that forecasting at this range is still in its infancy so can effectively be considered experimental.
Autumn & the start of Winter 2016
Updated 22nd September 2016
After some record breaking warmth in September, October is expected to see temperatures generally closer to the norm for the time of year, the southwest of England potentially bucking that trend though. The air pressure anomaly shown below does show slightly higher than average pressure across the north of the British Isles, but this is a fairly weak anomaly so isn't forecast to have too much of an impact on the rainfall patterns. Western Scotland, Northern Ireland and perhaps also Southeast England are forecast to be wetter than average, with other regions nearer to normal.
October Air Pressure
Into the final month of Autumn, and slightly higher than average pressure anomalies are still in play - generally to the north and also east of the British Isles. Should it occur (and bearing in mind that confidence always falls away as we move through the long range forecast), then a fairly blocked month is on the cards, with rainfall amounts seeing a west to east split - wettest, and wetter than average in the west. Temperatures are currently forecast to be close to, or milder than the seasonal norm.
November Air Pressure
Winter - December
Exceptionally low confidence at this stage, with a lot of uncertainty around the global drivers and likely pattern as we move into Winter. Currently though, the long range model is again going with slightly higher than average pressure to the north of the Britain and Ireland. It's a weak anomaly though, which is to be expected with this amount of uncertainty, but the phrase 'Northern Blocking' may be used come the winter should something similar to this play out.
More on this in the next update, plus of course in the full winter forecast issued during November.
December Air Pressure
Next long range update will be issued mid-October.
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Useful Weather Forecasts For You
The long range weather forecast displayed on this page is based on data from the Climate Forecast System from the NCEP (USA), run out to 9 months in advance and are updated once a month. The raw data is sent daily to Netweather, our systems then average and further process that data to produce the forecast you see below. The average figures you see on the forecast are not the standard 1971 to 2000 figures you may often see, instead they are rolling averages, currently from the period 1981-2010.