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Paul

Winter Forecast Now Online

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Exactly what I expect. Seems like a good forecast, however, with HP centered near the west, how does the west receive higher snowfall?

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Thanks to the forecaster/forecasters that put work in to make this forecast, much appreciated. We will have to see how it pans out, at this stage though i'd say a lot of things are uncertain to what will happen in 2-3 months time.

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Everything is uncertain, some things are just more likely than others, and I must say I am surprised at how strong the language used is.

Claiming this winter will "very likely" be very dry (never mind next spring!) seems a touch sensational and unscientific.

I also noted with interest that CFS forecasts were considered - given their recent ,and in fact general, poor perfotmance, I would think that they would have been largely ignored.

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Thanks Stewart for the forecast. Let's hope that you keep up your good record.

Ps. Paul, you have spelt Stewart's surname as Ranmping at the top!

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Ps. Paul, you have spelt Stewart's surname as Ranmping at the top!

Oops, thanks - have fixed that!!

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The precipitation forecast is interesting to say the least!

The initial general reaction of cold-lovers seems to be one of disappointment, but if this forecast were to come off then I would expect many of us to be more than satisfied when all is said and done. I do get the feeling that many folks are contorting "average" with "mild", when in reality a winter of average temperature would be expected to provide some good opportunities for cold and snow (stubborn high pressure over the North Atlantic always helps with this). If you don't expect a severe winter, you shouldn't be too disappointed. Also of course, despite GP's undoubted and highly impressive erudition, no forecast at this range is set in stone.

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Very interesting read. Although it may seem like a disappointment for cold lovers, actually for a modern La Nina winter we'll be doing pretty well if it verifies.

Good luck with it guys. :)

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Sounds like a lovely winter to me - dry and chilly but not too cold, snow around xmas/new year with a warm up in Feb.

Of course dryness doesn't mean sunny so 'lovely winter' might be replaced by 'dull, irritatingly cold and boring' but we shall see!

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Sounds like a boring winter in my book.

If it's going to be cold, i'd rather see snow as well - otherwise dry and cold means the central heating still needs to be cranked up and the dryness means problems for some areas of the UK re drought into next spring and summer.

Plus, if the coldest is for Iberia and parts of France, with the likelihood of low pressure they'll get all our snow!:doh:

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I love the fact how snow (if it happens) would affect the west first :D

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I'm going for rainfall totals to be above average over the winter, of course meaning fairly heavy snowfalls.

I have never known a pattern from a dry summer to a dry winter, they very rarely come hand in hand. Don't forget we had a cold early spring, with snowfall, then all of a sudden temps hitting the 27-28c mark. Im never one myself for forecasting the long term, i'm a short term kind of guy, good job i'm not like that with the ladies lol.

Netweather winter forecast is fairly plain tbh, and is probably one of the easiest situations to forecast, there is credibility there of course as they are great forecasters on here, I just think when your doing a long range forecast, a little more of "sticking your neck out" is important.

Regards

Lewis

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Thanks for this GP. A forecast with all the reasoning behind it added. Not that different to Brian over on TWO in terms of snowfall with you both suggesting that any snow we get is likely to be in western regions. Although I think Brian thinks the high pressure will also be to our northeast at times rather than the northwest. Never mind I'll take a combination of yours and Brian's any day.

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I'm going for rainfall totals to be above average over the winter, of course meaning fairly heavy snowfalls.

I have never known a pattern from a dry summer to a dry winter, they very rarely come hand in hand. Don't forget we had a cold early spring, with snowfall, then all of a sudden temps hitting the 27-28c mark. Im never one myself for forecasting the long term, i'm a short term kind of guy, good job i'm not like that with the ladies lol.

Netweather winter forecast is fairly plain tbh, and is probably one of the easiest situations to forecast, there is credibility there of course as they are great forecasters on here, I just think when your doing a long range forecast, a little more of "sticking your neck out" is important.

Regards

Lewis

Im not sure why you think its 'safe' to predict an average, dry winter over any other type? Whatever you forecast when its long range you are always 'sticking your neck out' as its by no means easy. Anyone can say 'it'll be wetter than average' or 'there will be heavy snowfalls', but unless you show your reasoning then its nothing but a guess.

Also, 1995/96, 1996/97 and 2005/06 were all recent winters drier than average following summers drier than average.

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The interesting point for me is the expectation of a 'typical' Nina driven set up. Its a well thought out forecast, more cagey than last year for sure though, erring on side of caution but maybe not it could be spot on. It is an early LRF too so credit for that.

BFTP

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Im not sure why you think its 'safe' to predict an average, dry winter over any other type? Whatever you forecast when its long range you are always 'sticking your neck out' as its by no means easy. Anyone can say 'it'll be wetter than average' or 'there will be heavy snowfalls', but unless you show your reasoning then its nothing but a guess.

Also, 1995/96, 1996/97 and 2005/06 were all recent winters drier than average following summers drier than average.

While I agree,

It's like saying next summer is going to be hot and dry, although recent summers may have been rather wet, you could argue that the summers of late have had above rainfall averages than below.

Our normal winters are wet, with above average temps, with colder interludes (accept for last years which was noticably colder).

I just thought the forecast was a little too plain tbh, with not much detail in terms of expected conditions, saying its going to be dry and cold for most parts with snow possible in the North West etc. How can a long range forecast be so specific one area, for example snow in the north west, with other areas generally much drier but colder.

From what I have seen upto now, this winters pattern is following suite from last years, and it's started early. The Atlantic has been pretty quiet upto now, and thats a good sign.

Im not flaming at the forecast in general, it's ok relying on charts 3-4 months out, and larger models, but that long range forecast seems to be missing a large part of our weather pattern now, and it does not add up.

Regards

lewis

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I'm going for rainfall totals to be above average over the winter, of course meaning fairly heavy snowfalls.

I have never known a pattern from a dry summer to a dry winter, they very rarely come hand in hand. Don't forget we had a cold early spring, with snowfall, then all of a sudden temps hitting the 27-28c mark. Im never one myself for forecasting the long term, i'm a short term kind of guy, good job i'm not like that with the ladies lol.

Netweather winter forecast is fairly plain tbh, and is probably one of the easiest situations to forecast, there is credibility there of course as they are great forecasters on here, I just think when your doing a long range forecast, a little more of "sticking your neck out" is important.

Regards

Lewis

Lewis, with respect, its not about sticking your neck out its about giving a forecast that you feel is as accurate as you can be, short or lrf. Stewart has given abundant reasons in his forecast but I notice your prediction of rainfall totals etc has no explanation as to why. How about you do just that for us all?

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Interesting read.

As a fan of GP, I very much hope you are wrong this time as dry cool and cloudy is pbly my most hated type of weather.

If we cant have cold and snow we might aswell have a good ol storm or two.

Still it's your most educated guess at this point and appreciate your thoughts!

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Im not sure why you think its 'safe' to predict an average, dry winter over any other type? Whatever you forecast when its long range you are always 'sticking your neck out' as its by no means easy. Anyone can say 'it'll be wetter than average' or 'there will be heavy snowfalls', but unless you show your reasoning then its nothing but a guess.

Also, 1995/96, 1996/97 and 2005/06 were all recent winters drier than average following summers drier than average.

Lets get the cold air in place first wait for the the precipation , its a good forecaste for us in the swest of the uk ,because i expect a number of low pressure attacks from the swest.

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Our normal winters are wet, with above average temps, with colder interludes (accept for last years which was noticably colder).
So, just suppose....if after careful consideration, a forecaster concludes conditions are likely to be average, should they not state this, lest they be accused of taking an easy route, or should they, perhaps, state that?I'm not saying that is the case here, but the principle stands.

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Well if that forecast works out I'll be happy.

If it's okay add some of the details (with a link to the full forecast) to my relevant blog page - first time I've done this but thought it'd be useful to get as many as possible winter forecasts together in one place for future reference.

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/10/winter-201011-forecasts.html

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After having another read through I can't wait for the more detailed forecast, GP. From, where I am standing I see it as a very reasonable forecast with a flatter jet, tighter and stronger PV, decreasing likelihood of northern blocking. I think that in the next few weeks when we can ascertain the early stratospheric pattern it will give us a better idea of how likely things will pan out.

I also think that you have stuck your neck out in suggesting that it will be drier than average, because it would be very easy to suggest mild and wet.

Lewis, perhaps you could be a little more gracious and actually stick your own neck a little less out?

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After having another read through I can't wait for the more detailed forecast, GP. From, where I am standing I see it as a very reasonable forecast with a flatter jet, tighter and stronger PV, decreasing likelihood of northern blocking. I think that in the next few weeks when we can ascertain the early stratospheric pattern it will give us a better idea of how likely things will pan out.

I also think that you have stuck your neck out in suggesting that it will be drier than average, because it would be very easy to suggest mild and wet.

Lewis, perhaps you could be a little more gracious and actually stick your own neck a little less out?

Sure,

I won't post and say what I think, after-all this isn't a forum is it?

Theres not only one outcome in a LRF, hence why a few people have a pop at doing them, some people don't agree of course, but your comment above is rather rude. TEITS etc will probably do a LRF soon as will many other members, like John Holmes for example, I was not disrespecting the netweather forecast at all, as I said there is credibility there, netweather holds some truely great forecasters, I don't have to agree with everything do I? Just like you didn't agree with me.

Regards

Lewis

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