06z model discussions

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Now, where can I get a high resolution radar which updates every 5 minutes?

[Slinky]

Now, where can I get a high resolution radar which updates every 5 minutes?

errrrrrrm you can get one by clicking my NWextra link in my sig

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Thank you!

HAHAHAHAHA.

Right...anyone joining in?

[Tim Bland]

So far south of the M4 / Thames Valley have rain by 6am! could be some dissapointed southerners if the METO keep ramping up snow for the south! Could be washed away by the time people are getting up!

[Supacell]

Looks quite similar so far up to 48h with a SE'ly flow for most of England away from the south coast. Where will that LP go?

EDIT: Answering my own question i think its further north which won't please those further south - and its STILL marginal for me in Derby.

Edited February 6, 2007 by Supacell

[TEITS]

Another day and the plot thickens this morning and im not talking about the possible snow event on Thurs either.

A majority are concentrating on the snow so my post this morning shall concentrate on when will it turn milder or will it!!

The pattern so far from all the models has been to breakdown this cold spell far to early. At first Wednesday was going to be the day when the Atlantic comes marching back in and now it looks based on the GFS/UKMO it shall be the weekend but will it??.

Already today we are seeing signs from some models that this won't be the case as some are reluctant to see the LP come crashing in and instead of this we actually see heights increasing over Scandi with the potential for this to ridge further W.

The GME shows this very clearly.

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2060000_168.gif

The ECM hints at this

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...t!chart.gif

Then we have the GEM which continues the blocking over Greenland which extends into Scandi.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1561.gif

Now im not saying this will happen because based on the UKMO/GFS the more likely scenario is the atlantic moving back in but even if this was the case I don't believe the less cold conditions would last to long because of the suggestions from all the models that blocking shall dominate this month. Having said this I would not dismiss the charts as shown on the links for the simple reason the models have tried to be too progressive as shown by our cold spell being extended.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Something of a backtrack by GFS this morning- it's worth noting that the NOAA discussions and Met Office FAX inputs both suggested that the experts felt that this would ultimately happen.

Cold spell could end by Friday in the south, but may well hold on a few days longer in the north; I think, though, that the 06Z looks set to be more progressive than the 00Z, as was also the case yesterday. I expect the 12Z GFS to show a longer retention of cold easterly winds in the north than the 06Z- and also that such an outcome is more likely to be nearer the mark.

[nick sussex]

It looks like the atlantic lows are further south and the overall pattern better, although the shorter term looks a little less exciting but at this range we should stick to the ukmo fax charts. Anyway this is all gearing up to trend towards a better longer term outlook.

[Theresnoway]

Looks quite similar so far up to 48h with a SE'ly flow for most of England away from the south coast. Where will that LP go?

EDIT: Answering my own question i think its further north which won't please those further south - and its STILL marginal for me in Derby.

I wonder if the GFS is still being over progressive as it was yesterday, could the low still track further south? Will be interesting to see the fax charts at 10:30, will they colaborate? I am guessing even at +T48 we will still see some disagreements between the models.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

It looks like the atlantic lows are further south and the overall pattern better, although the shorter term looks a little less exciting but at this range we should stick to the ukmo fax charts. Anyway this is all gearing up to trend towards a better longer term outlook.

Conflicting views there chaps – which I cannot verify as I am at work – shucks

[nick sussex]

Conflicting views there chaps – which I cannot verify as I am at work – shucks

The lows in the atlantic are further south with more forcing from the north as the ridge builds westwards from the east, as long as the PV right to the ne of scandi doesnt head south then theres only one way this run is going and thats cold!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I wouldn't place much confidence in the GEM as it has been performing very poorly recently. In particular the GEM positions lows a good few hundred miles further south than UKMO and ECMWF, giving rise to a cold, potentially showery east-north-east flow (in view of cold upper air temps, warm SSTs and the slackness of HP to our north) and the lows missing Britain completely.

However, it's worth noting that even if the actual outcome had lows even slightly further south than on UKMO and ECM, we could be looking at something more prolonged. The most likely outcome, though, I think has to be that the mild air reaches the south by Friday, and then hangs around in the north until the end of the weekend. It doesn't look like the northern blocking is set to desist anytime soon so even if the Atlantic does come in, it's quite possible that cold north-easterly winds could return after midmonth as the high-latitude HP cells extend back southwards, in common with Glacier Point's post last night in the technical model discussion thread.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The main concern this morning in the short term is that the snow line is alot further north which is a bit annoying for the south. Looks like in leicester I will still be in the firing line but anywhere much further south than me and it's progging heavy rain from the first assult. I expected the snow line to fall further south than this being as were getting into 36 hours now. 6z has had to back track on what it was showing a couple of days ago so hpefully could be wrong again.

Edited February 6, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[MKN]

The main concern this morning in the short term is that the snow line is alot further north which is a bit annoying for the south. Looks like in leicester I will still be in the firing line but anywhere much further south than me and it's progging heavy rain from the first assult. I expected the snow line to fall further south than this being as were getting into 36 hours now. 6z has had to back track on what it was showing a couple of days ago so hpefully could be wrong again.

Out of the 3 gfs runs i see each day 06z, 12z and 18z the 06z always seems to progressive, the best and most cosistant run for me has to be the 12z, the 18z seems to flip from 1 extreme to the other.

[Jude_foster]

The main concern this morning in the short term is that the snow line is alot further north which is a bit annoying for the south. Looks like in leicester I will still be in the firing line but anywhere much further south than me and it's progging heavy rain from the first assult. I expected the snow line to fall further south than this being as were getting into 36 hours now. 6z has had to back track on what it was showing a couple of days ago so hpefully could be wrong again.

Tbh the 06z likes reapeating this senario over the past few days.

I would probably put money on that the snow line will be back over southern counties on the 12z

[Slinky]

The main concern this morning in the short term is that the snow line is alot further north which is a bit annoying for the south. Looks like in leicester I will still be in the firing line but anywhere much further south than me and it's progging heavy rain from the first assult. I expected the snow line to fall further south than this being as were getting into 36 hours now. 6z has had to back track on what it was showing a couple of days ago so hpefully could be wrong again.

Its going to be marginal for our locations Snowmad, although past experience does lend its weight for a snowy outcome for us........

Its a fingers crossed situation

[Thundery wintry showers]

Out of the 3 gfs runs i see each day 06z, 12z and 18z the 06z always seems to progressive, the best and most cosistant run for me has to be the 12z, the 18z seems to flip from 1 extreme to the other.

Before anyone says "that's being said because the 12Z has generally shown the coldest/snowiest scenario" (which is a possible point to raise), I often think of the 12Z as being the most reliable of the GFS runs, on average, regardless of whether it shows mild or cold.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Out of the 3 gfs runs i see each day 06z, 12z and 18z the 06z always seems to progressive, the best and most cosistant run for me has to be the 12z, the 18z seems to flip from 1 extreme to the other.

well leicester always seem to do well from these south west setups ppn wise anyway as it doesnt lose its power as much when it comes from sw as it does comeing from the nw. not as many hills and mountains to cross. I would be supprissed if it was a rain event for us. I do also think it would help if the first band could arrive about 6am in the morning when the due's are alot lower. once we get an origanal covering it should continue to settle on top. Thre is still total disagreement when it comes to the snow line anyway and the bbc are ramping it up so thats all good. the metoffice are not saying anything though and in there forecasts just saying rain sleet and snow which covers there backs basicly. also no early warnings and that just shows how uncertain they are as they normally issue a warning about 4-5 days in advance of a majour weather situation.

Edited February 6, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[johnholmes]

well leicester always seem to do well from these south west setups ppn wise anyway as it doesnt lose its power as much when it comes from sw as it does comeing from the nw. not as many hills and mountains to cross. I would be supprissed if it was a rain event for us. I do also think it would help if the first band could arrive about 6am in the morning when the due's are alot lower. once we get an origanal covering it should continue to settle on top. Thre is still total disagreement when it comes to the snow line anyway and the bbc are ramping it up so thats all good. the metoffice are not saying anything though and in there forecasts just saying rain sleet and snow which covers there backs basicly. also no early warnings and that just shows how uncertain they are as they normally issue a warning about 4-5 days in advance of a majour weather situation.

not for snow they don't, usually 48 hours but at times only 24 hours. I would have expected something by now but it looks like they will hang on until this afternoon now.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Can anybody give me a link for the gem charts please. I seem to be able to access every other model apart from the gem.

Edited February 6, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[wellington boot]

Can anybody give me a link for the gem charts please. I seem to be able to access every other model apart from the gem.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgemeur.html

[TEITS]

Irrespective of model performance and the outcome the GEM is totally amazing from start to finish

Feb 1986 re-run anyone ??

After what the JMA showed last week and the other models actually moving slightly towards that - don't bet against further twists in the next day or two towards the GEM.

In times like this with all the models in total confusion - you just never know!

Tamara

This chart below is dedicated specially for you Tamara which was taken from a GEFS a few days ago.

[Glacier Point]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.html

I like where this is heading....

[chilly milly]

So it looks like its all shifted further north again and I'm likely to miss out here. Are we too close in now for this to change again?

The 06z is too progressive some people say, but surely this close to the event, it should have the basics down and the fine detail could come later?

Also would the fact that this is coming up from the SW make a difference to this area, as most snow events that hit us are coming down fromt he NE.

[wellington boot]

The Gem chart at 240 is a beaut. Its a shame it doesn also give us the 850s or the ppn, because after a week of an easterly, arctic sourced flow, with -10s near us in the first place, that one would be a cold chart. And pressures low too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

Ah if only...

Oh and furthermore, you know what GEM is actually giving us out past 200. That's right, that-which-must-not-be-named, (hushed voice), the omega block. Look at the high splitting, suggesting a switch from easterly to northerly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

Now to see that even in FI is a rare experience, and one to be cherished.