Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MATTWOLVES 3]

43 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A fair initial comment. But the madden ju Osc-is in current switch/ transitions/ along with a get set.. ready .. wait tropical maritime response. So raw operationals are going to swing and sway with coordination/ dynamics!.. the ens will be forward in noting.. and a relaxing on the infant outs will likely catch up . Again for me July the summer show stopper.. and once nearing, @ early nxt week I’m sure we’ll get packing order in this. Tampering and compare ( IMO) the heat and uk swathers are immenent, and for the country as a whole..@ least on base scale.

I'm with you on this tight...I really do sense an uptick in fortunes moving into the new month. Fair enough there is a trough glued towards the NW for much of the next 10 days...but it looks to me that away from those areas could infact improve and become much warmer at times.

10 days is a very long time in forecasting and as we witnessed earlier this week with the heat and the sunshine...which was originally scheduled to be cool and wet!

Any of you feeling uneasy with the next 7 days or so of weather I will bring you some pointers if your not liking it.

1...theres some fab bronzing parlours now...bring the Mediterranean to your own area.

2..Book numerous package deal Holidays preferably cancellations to save you some money.

3...Do none of the above and sink a few cold ones and say too hell with the British climate..

Have a little patience folks...Good Times will roll..

[tight isobar]

I’m done here for a while... but I’ll drop this gefs 12z en- clicks!. @ fill the spaces!. A classic formed- yet sinking/ evaporated trough format. And I’m sure the spaces WILL fill in coming days.. then, those following members uptick , and also want the toffee.. we’ll note/watch.. heatwave beacons @ early July.. then deciphering.

[Cambrian]

This weekend not up to much for many, but next weekend is getting to look better with each run of the ECM. The 12z operational run for days 6, 7 and 8 is now clearly signalling the clearing out of the trough, with it getting pushed north. While on Friday, we’re looking at 1010 and 1015mb isobars, Saturday 1015 and 1020mb….

 

….by Sunday it’s 1020mb+ under a weak ridge of the Azores high, having lost that nagging northwesterly. Temperatures responding by later on Sunday, with 22 degrees in the offing for a good part of England. 
 

It goes downhill again for day 9 and 10 with some lower heights spilling south again, forming a low over northern France and southern UK - it’s the kind of summer period where you grab the better days when you can, but there are better days in the mix for sure.

 

I know it’s a long way off but I like the look of aspects of this day 10 chart - look at the heights pushing up from the Azores high to Iceland. With the low moving south, away over France, it looks like those heights could topple down over us and link with those over the Baltic. This is the first ECM op chart I’ve seen offering to cut off the trough that far north - the Azores high is actually ridging all the way over to Scandinavia to the north of Scotland. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Looking windy from now to next week,very unseasonably

[Methuselah]

47 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm with you on this tight...I really do sense an uptick in fortunes moving into the new month. Fair enough there is a trough glued towards the NW for much of the next 10 days...but it looks to me that away from those areas could infact improve and become much warmer at times.

10 days is a very long time in forecasting and as we witnessed earlier this week with the heat and the sunshine...which was originally scheduled to be cool and wet!

Any of you feeling uneasy with the next 7 days or so of weather I will bring you some pointers if your not liking it.

1...theres some fab bronzing parlours now...bring the Mediterranean to your own area.

2..Book numerous package deal Holidays preferably cancellations to save you some money.

3...Do none of the above and sink a few cold ones and say too hell with the British climate..

Have a little patience folks...Good Times will roll..

Oh dear, Matt: some folks (not you) do like to moan: it's unseasonably cold, cloudy, wet or whatever; but it isn't! How many times have peeps (it's always the same few?) written off summer, every single year, based on one or two individual model runs?

[minus10]

Well the ecm 12z prec totals have decided very much on a nw se split for rain distribution

Think we will need some water piped from the nw if this continues...felt pretty summery here today despite the breeze....

[mushymanrob]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear, Matt: some folks (not you) do like to moan: it's unseasonably cold, cloudy, wet or whatever; but it isn't! How many times have peeps (it's always the same few?) written off summer, every single year, based on one or two individual model runs?

June hasnt been bad has it... certainly no dull washout for most places, and the outlook is average which for late June/early July isnt bad... and most "classic" summers dont get going until July anyway!
Currently the CET is 14.8c, which is higher than 1995 (june 14.2c) 1983 (14.3c) and many more classic great Summers...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

This weekend not up to much for many, but next weekend is getting to look better with each run of the ECM. The 12z operational run for days 6, 7 and 8 is now clearly signalling the clearing out of the trough, with it getting pushed north. While on Friday, we’re looking at 1010 and 1015mb isobars, Saturday 1015 and 1020mb….

 

….by Sunday it’s 1020mb+ under a weak ridge of the Azores high, having lost that nagging northwesterly. Temperatures responding by later on Sunday, with 22 degrees in the offing for a good part of England. 
 

It goes downhill again for day 9 and 10 with some lower heights spilling south again, forming a low over northern France and southern UK - it’s the kind of summer period where you grab the better days when you can, but there are better days in the mix for sure.

 

I know it’s a long way off but I like the look of aspects of this day 10 chart - look at the heights pushing up from the Azores high to Iceland. With the low moving south, away over France, it looks like those heights could topple down over us and link with those over the Baltic. This is the first ECM op chart I’ve seen offering to cut off the trough that far north - the Azores high is actually ridging all the way over to Scandinavia to the north of Scotland. 

Excellent summary mate as usual...your posting as really become quite impressive if I may so.

I agree in what you say regarding  that 9 or 10 day period, Heights look potentially more robust and primed to bring us a change in fortunes...just worth mentioning the op was perhaps a little extreme with that pressure drop later...the mean looks more keen shall we say!

@Ed Stone yes Pete it's not been that bad at all around these parts so far...already a couple of really warm spells and I'm sure many more to come...granted some further North and West would have grounds to be a little peeved with the deal thay have recieved so far. Hoping we see a more extensive improvement with time. You being in the East I feel are looking pretty good for plenty of dry conditions the coming week....very usable I'm sure you will agree  

[offerman]

The problem we have had for quite a while which at the moment does not look like changing is the azores HP is just too stagnant in its positioning. 
 

Its too far west and south to allow any sustained warmth to encroach to our shores. Any warm incursions are very shorter livee before cooler N/W N biase takes over. 
 

Normally would see some decent Azores HP moving up from the SW parking over us for a week or two before either:  passing by dragging up a plume behind it or retreating back sw.

However, This current setup is particularly strange for the times of year in its longevity. Cast your minds back to winter as well when we had this exact stagnant setup where for coldies the HP was in the exact same place for so long preventing any cold to take hold too.

Whatever is happening i don’t know but the HP is a massive controller of our weather in all seasons and it has become hugely stubbourn to sit in this position almost to me what seems on a yearly basis. 

 

[Uncertainty]

The Long awaited early July improvement is finally being signalled, perhaps from as early as next weekend as the stubborn trough that will be plaguing the NW this week gets replaced by a ridge from the Azores

GEFS 174

EC op 168

Followed by a renewed surge of heights towards day 10

 

Still a long way off mind, the GEM not interested.

The trough never clears out and the Atlantic heights build over the top. 
 

Broadly though even the GEM ensembles clear the trough eventually and build the hp back in from the SW

Given the entrenched La Niña base state, what could be behind this +NAO suggestion?

Surely this big push into the maritimes, aided and abetted by the rather negative IOD is the big shaker. 
 

I think this is a pivotal point in the summer, a bit like the Christmas Easterly Disaster (remember that ) and it could go a long way in determining how the season develops. If we do get the momentum push, then a period of warm/hot HP could well dominate early July. If we don’t then expect the base state to revert, Atlantic heights to blossom once again and the green snot magnet to activate once more.

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Uncertainy

[richie3846]

4 hours ago, offerman said:

The problem we have had for quite a while which at the moment does not look like changing is the azores HP is just too stagnant in its positioning. 
 

Its too far west and south to allow any sustained warmth to encroach to our shores. Any warm incursions are very shorter livee before cooler N/W N biase takes over. 
 

Normally would see some decent Azores HP moving up from the SW parking over us for a week or two before either:  passing by dragging up a plume behind it or retreating back sw.

However, This current setup is particularly strange for the times of year in its longevity. Cast your minds back to winter as well when we had this exact stagnant setup where for coldies the HP was in the exact same place for so long preventing any cold to take hold too.

Whatever is happening i don’t know but the HP is a massive controller of our weather in all seasons and it has become hugely stubbourn to sit in this position almost to me what seems on a yearly basis. 

 

I often hear people talk of the summer Azores high which is supposedly a big feature of the UK weather. Maybe people don't talk about it when it actually arrives, because I can't remember anyone referring to the Azores high in the present tense, and only ever heard it mentioned when it's not in situ. Does the thing actually exist? I've been baffled by this for a long time.

[bluearmy]

36 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

The Long awaited early July improvement is finally being signalled, perhaps from as early as next weekend as the stubborn trough that will be plaguing the NW this week gets replaced by a ridge from the Azores

GEFS 174

EC op 168

Followed by a renewed surge of heights towards day 10

 

Still a long way off mind, the GEM not interested.

The trough never clears out and the Atlantic heights build over the top. 
 

Broadly though even the GEM ensembles clear the trough eventually and build the hp back in from the SW

Given the entrenched La Niña base state, what could be behind this +NAO suggestion?

Surely this big push into the maritimes, aided and abetted by the rather negative IOD is the big shaker. 
 

I think this is a pivotal point in the summer, a bit like the Christmas Easterly Disaster (remember that ) and it could go a long way in determining how the season develops. If we do get the momentum push, then a period of warm/hot HP could well dominate early July. If we don’t then expect the base state to revert, Atlantic heights to blossom once again and the green snot magnet to activate once more.

 

The gefs are still way more optimistic on the amplitude of the MJO in phase 4/5 than the other models 

we seem to be headed back to the extended period prior to the sceuro high with the displaced Azores and scandi trough creating a mean wnw flow for us with cut off upper lows created by traversing the ebbs and flows of the mid Atlantic ridge driving occasional plumes. This was a very decent period of summer weather for most of the country. As long as the Azores is stronger than the scandi trough we should be ok.  We did see the odd few days when the reverse was true but it was isolated. 

[mb018538]

4 hours ago, offerman said:

The problem we have had for quite a while which at the moment does not look like changing is the azores HP is just too stagnant in its positioning. 
 

Its too far west and south to allow any sustained warmth to encroach to our shores. Any warm incursions are very shorter livee before cooler N/W N biase takes over. 
 

Normally would see some decent Azores HP moving up from the SW parking over us for a week or two before either:  passing by dragging up a plume behind it or retreating back sw.

However, This current setup is particularly strange for the times of year in its longevity. Cast your minds back to winter as well when we had this exact stagnant setup where for coldies the HP was in the exact same place for so long preventing any cold to take hold too.

Whatever is happening i don’t know but the HP is a massive controller of our weather in all seasons and it has become hugely stubbourn to sit in this position almost to me what seems on a yearly basis. 

 

A suppressed Azores high in a La Niña set up isn’t uncommon…..it’s the more default position. We could break the shackles in early July. Been flagging this for a couple of weeks as a possible change of fortunes, it’s still not guaranteed, but some of the output is tentatively heading that way this morning. 

[ANYWEATHER]

37 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I often hear people talk of the summer Azores high which is supposedly a big feature of the UK weather. Maybe people don't talk about it when it actually arrives, because I can't remember anyone referring to the Azores high in the present tense, and only ever heard it mentioned when it's not in situ. Does the thing actually exist? I've been baffled by this for a long time.

Hello .Yes it does exist and is yes generally located around the as it's name suggests the Azores and is a Semi- permanent feature as a result of the Polar, Ferril ,Hadley cells influenced by the Corriolis effect. It does however influence our weather, quite often in some years and can give us some memorable summers. The Burmada high is another by example of another semi- permanent high.....☺

[Mike Poole]

Finally, a signal is taking hold for something warmer and more settled into July.  First the 0z op runs at T240:

GEM the odd one out there retaining a trough, but GFS and ECM show a ridge from the Azores nosing in, and this is well backed up by the ensembles for both models:

Both mean charts at T240 have the 1020 hPa line over much of the south and west - I think this is a strong signal from the models, and with some support from the background signals too as explained by others, we could be in the game for a significant improvement into next month, caveat being it will benefit the south predominantly, at least to start with.  SSTs remain warmer than usual around the UK and to the south, which will improve chances of drawing up some heat from the south, if the wind directions permit a substantial southerly component.

Bring it on!

Edited June 26, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Singularity]

EPS produce more interference with the MJO signal in the RMM measure used by Hendon & Wheeler, probably related to the probable existence of at least one tropical cyclone in the tropical Atlantic / Caribbean, along with unusually strong tropical waves for the time of year.

GFS/GEFS have been underestimating those features, leading to less interference.

Regardless, the actual MJO forcing exists & as the ECM 00z shows, maybe strong enough to force an onset of extension of the Azores High across the UK in early July.

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

I often hear people talk of the summer Azores high which is supposedly a big feature of the UK weather. Maybe people don't talk about it when it actually arrives, because I can't remember anyone referring to the Azores high in the present tense, and only ever heard it mentioned when it's not in situ. Does the thing actually exist? I've been baffled by this for a long time.

I think it's probably because it doesn't bring particularly *interesting* weather.  Just classic summery conditions without the extremeness of plumes, etc.

[mb018538]

 

6z day 9….here comes the Azores high  

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

I think it's probably because it doesn't bring particularly *interesting* weather.  Just classic summery conditions without the extremeness of plumes, etc.

So when it's here nobody talks about it making me think it's not real

[Earthshine]

18 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

So when it's here nobody talks about it making me think it's not real

Rule 1 if the Azores High club:

Don't talk about the Azores High.

[Penrith Snow]

Like in Winter, when it’s 

Dont mention a Greenland High

[Cambrian]

The 6z operational run of the GFS is keener yet on the prospects for next weekend, day 7 offering up a reasonable looking chart for this point in summer, 1020-1028mb just about the range for the UK and Ireland. Still some light rain possible in parts of the northwest next Sunday, but getting warm in central and southern parts, 24 degrees or higher in the southeast in the late afternoon.
  

By day 8, Monday, largely dry in all parts and the warmer temperatures extend north. 

 

The mean not quite as bullish on heights or pressure, but with the ridging of the Azores high well into Europe, the direction of travel is becoming clearer, the northward extent of the ridging perhaps becoming the main question during this coming week. 

The 6z op flatters for pressure throughout when compared with the ensemble, but interestingly, (finally) shunts the trough eastwards away from the north of Scotland into Scandinavia by day 12, with the Azores high continuing to build over the UK and Ireland. 

[Singularity]

The usual question of progressiveness arises - with the deterministic model runs, we often see a new direction of travel brought on a bit too fast at first. ECM 00z felt like a good effort, with the slack ridge next weekend before a more emphatic one arrives on D10, though I’d not surprised if it happened a day or two later in reality with LP staying closer to the NE beforehand.

At this time, the 2nd & perhaps 3rd weeks of July looks to me to hold highest potential for a lengthy very warm or hot (but potentially very hot at times, which is a concern) spell of weather affecting more than just a little of the UK.

[damianslaw]

Its all about the azores high it seems at present! The immediate outlook forecast to be rather unsettled, most rain rerserved for the NW, all will temps average at very best, in northern and western parts a bit below.. 

The models are suggesting the azores high will gain the upper hand as we move into early July and may exert enough influence to kick the atlantic trough aside, and bring a more longer lasting settled and increasingly warm period. 

As someone pointed out, developments around now often give a good signal for how the rest of the summer pans out.. whether the azores high wins out against the trough through the rest of the summer remains to be seen, my hunch is it may do so into and through middle of July - our window for a long settled warm period being then, but due to seasonal wavelengths as we go through latter part of July it will weaken and generally unsettled thereafter order of play - just in time for school holidays! 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Its all about the azores high it seems at present! The immediate outlook forecast to be rather unsettled, most rain rerserved for the NW, all will temps average at very best, in northern and western parts a bit below.. 

The models are suggesting the azores high will gain the upper hand as we move into early July and may exert enough influence to kick the atlantic trough aside, and bring a more longer lasting settled and increasingly warm period. 

As someone pointed out, developments around now often give a good signal for how the rest of the summer pans out.. whether the azores high wins out against the trough through the rest of the summer remains to be seen, my hunch is it may do so into and through middle of July - our window for a long settled warm period being then, but due to seasonal wavelengths as we go through latter part of July it will weaken and generally unsettled thereafter order of play - just in time for school holidays! 

That last paragraph has some unerring truth to it  

It'd be a daring choice to bet against a warm and settled first half of July before the pattern breaks!