Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[sheikhy]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Some slight signs of promise on the ECM mean. Trough down the east of the UK starts to lift out between day 6-10, with 850 temps recovering as this happens. Note the gradual shift north of the 5c line between day 6-10.


   

And maybe why all of a sudden the gfs 06z looks pretty darn good with the high centred more over the uk than to the west!good signs!!

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

And maybe why all of a sudden the gfs 06z looks pretty darn good with the high centred more over the uk than to the west!good signs!!

Lets hope the GFS 6Z has this right and not the ECM. Unlikely of course.

[Frosty.]

Lovely stuff from the Gfs 6z operational!…permission to Boom Sir?! Permission granted! ️ ? 

[Scorcher]

For all the criticism it gets, the GFS is often the first to buck a trend before the other models start to follow suit. So I wouldn't rule out the scenario the 06Z run shows just yet. I've said all along that I think the models are overdoing the retrogression and there is certainly still time for changes before the weekend.

 

[Hoghtonwhite]

Wow! What an interesting GFS 06z run!!

[StormChaseUK]

Yes we are heading to peak heating time of year now,  the high pressure from SW will be too strong for those northerlies  

I did a have a feeling a few days ago the models were overdoing low pressure.

[sheikhy]

Just to add the gfs control is even better than the op!!something maybe afoot!!!!!!!

Signs were there on the gfs ensembles this morning and also on the messy ecm!!!!

Edited May 24, 2022 by sheikhy

[mushymanrob]

Well these charts dont agree with the current Ops, and insist the high pressure will remain to our West, this chart being the mean for May 31st - June 6th.

Chillingly, the anomaly charts also issued on May 23rd in 2012 and 2007 are very similar... does a cool wet June beckon?

 

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Well these charts dont agree with the current Ops, and insist the high pressure will remain to our West, this chart being the mean for May 31st - June 6th.

Chillingly, the anomaly charts also issued on May 23rd in 2012 and 2007 are very similar... does a cool wet June beckon?

 

June 2007 wasn't a bad month overall in these parts. I don't think you can compare June 2012 and 2007- completely different months. The first two thirds of June 2007 around here were actually very decent and the first 10 days were very good indeed with unbroken sunshine on several days. Of course it then went rapidly downhill in the last 10 days or so.

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well these charts dont agree with the current Ops, and insist the high pressure will remain to our West, this chart being the mean for May 31st - June 6th.

Chillingly, the anomaly charts also issued on May 23rd in 2012 and 2007 are very similar... does a cool wet June beckon?

 

Going off the ensembles....probably not at this stage. Could all change mind you.

[mushymanrob]

54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

June 2007 wasn't a bad month overall in these parts. I don't think you can compare June 2012 and 2007- completely different months. The first two thirds of June 2007 around here were actually very decent and the first 10 days were very good indeed with unbroken sunshine on several days. Of course it then went rapidly downhill in the last 10 days or so.

june 2012 and june 2007 were very wet months... 2 of the wettest junes on record.. so i think the comparison is sound. 07 wasnt overly cool though, ill give you that.
both summers ended up being very poor... see the manchester summer index..

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by mushymanrob

[summer blizzard]

Interesting to see the divergence between the 0z Euro following the typical progression of recent days and the GFS6z which strangely completes the retrogression but leaves a secondary core of the high around. Both still have significant Greenland blocking out by day 10 (so one assumes the GFS solution would be temporary).

On the 07 talk it's worth noting that until the 12th the charts were not dissimilar to those seen recently however in that case we got a double whammy of the high orientating e-w and then a Scandi Trough which essentially opened up a path for low pressure to follow. As a whole though, Maxima ended below average while minima were well above. 

[sheikhy]

Much improved ukmo compared to 00z!!its not a gfs 06z but its better and flatter to the north which means the high is slightly closer!

Edited May 24, 2022 by sheikhy

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Much improved ukmo compared to 00z!!its not a gfs 06z but its better and flatter to the north which means the high is slightly closer!

Would you Adam and Eve it - now GFS holds the UK high to T192 - I would, I’ve been sceptical of the seemingly favoured outcome for some days:

[Earthshine]

No real indication of anything disastrously cold.  Sure, we might see a "cooler" spell but at this time of year in any sunshine it'll will still feel warm.  If we do see a NE component to winds it may be a "west is best" type situation.

[sheikhy]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Would you Adam and Eve it - now GFS holds the UK high to T192 - I would, I’ve been sceptical of the seemingly favoured outcome for some days:

Yup and now gfs is looking pretty much same as the 06z!high more over us and sunny and dry with a few cloudy days in the mix!!if ecm goes the same way then this will be brilliant news for us!!

[mountain shadow]

Much improved UKMO and GFS 12z. Let's hope the ECM follows suite.

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Much improved UKMO and GFS 12z. Let's hope the ECM follows suite.

UKMO isn’t that great. No idea what’s happened to the GFS though, full on high pressure domination. Very much at odds with the rest of the models. I think it had too many bevvies and is drunk!

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

june 2012 and june 2007 were very wet months... 2 of the wettest junes on record.. so i think the comparison is sound. 07 wasnt overly cool though, ill give you that.
both summers ended up being very poor... see the manchester summer index..

 

 

Totally different patterns in the two months though. June 2007 was a far better month than 2012 which was awful from the word go.

[sheikhy]

Ecm having none of it!!on to the 00zs!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, follows the new trend to re establish high pressure close to the UK, not to the extent of GFS but the doom scenarios are gradually being wiped from the model output this afternoon as expected:

To be fair, worsens considerably by T240.  Difficult to know where FI starts at the moment, it all looks a bit messy.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Mike Poole

[summer blizzard]

Euro is a small movement to the GFS in that it closes the route for low pressure to approach however the Scandi Trough remains in place through day 10. Northern blocking remains strong unlike the GFS which almost fully topples.

[mb018538]

GFS 12z outlier as expected…

[Singularity]

It’s now hard to say what’s most likely to occur this weekend, as it’s too soon for the AAM change to be a likely reason for GFS’ huge adjustments to the weekend evolution. Possibly it just handles the Atlantic low differently due to how it’s dynamics now resolve the situation, which is obviously different to the other models, though they have budged slightly.

 This in turn lowers confidence in next week’s pattern. A renewed AAM surge should mean movement toward establishing a high across Western Europe and southern UK and GFS does that, but it happens to soon and the pattern actually drifts the wrong way later in the week.

ECM has the right direction of travel until Thu but then stutters unexpectedly. It sort of restarts the drift on D10 buts it’s a bit half-hearted with the UK in a nomansland between a weak west Euro high & one to the northwest.

To my understanding, the best fit to the AAM sequence would be a slack N flow Sun-Mon followed by temps steadily climbing as high pressure slowly becomes focused over W Europe while the high latitude blocking high moves fully away from us to form a sort of west based negative NAO pattern.

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 12z outlier as expected…

Still a very dry outlook for the SE