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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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SqueakheartLW Accomplished

SqueakheartLW

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
Posted
53 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes, and there’s just about enough time to Thursday for an upgrade or two, now maybe if the high could shift just marginally out further west.....

Also a bit further north to put the winds more to the NE to bring more areas into the snow game too

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

It's not impossible we'll get a period of snow grains on Thursday/Friday. That kind of trajectory on the main models may suggest dry due to the high pressure level, but occasionally can drag some temporary dross down with it. At those temps though, possibly white not wet.

Slight clutching of straws but the point is for coldies that there is a straw to clutch.

General picture though, cool and dry, though potentially feeling pleasant in afternoon sun if any.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

ICON 18z..

FC3AB618-EFC9-4D66-8318-3BCE0B16A615.png

Get roughly a million tug boats to pull that HP West, and yes we’ll be in the money, but that’s been us lot looking on and on and run after run, without no change  

Hopefully things will change soon and give us coldies hope

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's not impossible we'll get a period of snow grains on Thursday/Friday. 

What a winter this is turning out to be!  Sorry but you just have to !

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Don said:

What a winter this is turning out to be!  Sorry but you just have to !

Laughter is the only way sometimes lol. 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Better than a poke in the eye, as the saying goes, if your in easternmost  areas, maybe the East of kent around Thanet might get a look in too. 

960670BE-EB9B-4F3B-94A4-7994A9302D4B.gif

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

As said if the high could nudge a bit further west then something a bit more wintry might occur mid week, more so east parts. Alas a glancing cold blow it seems possibly some flurries in the NE. We aren't far off a good cold spell certainly blocked but the PV to the NW is preventing it.. if more split was happening with energy in the eastern lobe we'd have the amplification needed to send heights further west and north. Instead it's a stalemate pattern.. the high unusually stubborn with little variation though we do look to be trending nearer average temp wise if not colder at times which will knock the CET down from the silly high starting point this month.

Need some major forcing to shake things up. Not sure what will do it and when mind.. our weather patterns last 14 months have been stuck it seems.. lost count of the number of lengthy blocked spells upwards 2 weeks or more we've had.. the Atlantic has been notable by it's absence.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Can't remember the last time GFS has shown a dead Atlantic run after run... the GFS 18z turning its hand to something from the east in far outer reaches..  unusual. ECM on the other hand has been more progressive at times in its output. Normally the other way around. Its turning into a very odd winter for model watching this year.. 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Wow, what a rare site this is ....jff

263774081_h850t850eu(86).thumb.png.e1756c7f233bea3b19c2031140d375d9.png

Flatters to deceive...as usual....still a change from looking at the persistent dartboard high...

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Short ENS 18z showing a further reduction for the mean on the 20th to just under -8C 850hPa uppers. Short term upgrades for a change.

image.thumb.png.73b3b18f5d36320dceb68c53376be7a9.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
14 minutes ago, Purga said:

Short ENS 18z showing a further reduction for the mean on the 20th to just under -8C 850hPa uppers. Short term upgrades for a change.

image.thumb.png.73b3b18f5d36320dceb68c53376be7a9.png

Couple of -12 uppers there. 

If only the block was 200 miles west !

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

6 hours since the last post. No need to look at the models, me thinks.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

6 hours since the last post. No need to look at the models, me thinks.

GEFS - maybe a couple of more cold runs than the 18 run - thats it though.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Cold plunge later this week as shown on ensembles. Should be cold and at crisp least. 

 

17C92038-A3AD-4A12-94ED-EEBA41393A00.thumb.png.268a7e8bdc487f71cc24ae048c01ee3c.png


 

P26 with best case scenario with pattern backed west and a slight easterly feed developing in the south afterwards. 
 

0AAB592D-C3D6-4D08-90E0-17C12CC5AB97.thumb.png.c82f346170d5d1b60d24b40a730e6387.png


250B16C6-D9E2-46EB-8991-286A6DA83AA0.thumb.png.83c918200063e3d9d1918fdc7fd34353.png

Edited by chris55
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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Persistent strong stubborn high pressure, watch these highs disappear to the far south and west when summer arrives and we get some northerlies /NWs  lol 

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Watch the pattern reverse as spring arrives nevermind summer lol,turn the current images upside down to see an example of the spring and summer ouput.

Woeful ECM again.

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Watch the pattern reverse as spring arrives nevermind summer lol,turn the current images upside down to see an example of the spring and summer ouput.

Woeful ECM again.

Yes, Sleety woeful regarding prospects of snow but I think it would be rather nice down on the Sussex coast with winter sunshine and some frost at night in the mix. I suppose better than a howling SWly with sludge conditions !

C

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

May as well take a few more days off from watching. It won’t stay like this forever, just feels like it at the moment.

C044EB9C-CD17-4535-8A75-8F00E73833F8.png

6C28AA41-8293-40EC-B7C0-D203CDD56837.png

6C2A3679-6CF5-4567-B39E-755BEEC5B21B.png

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Ill repost a comment i made a week ago, this time with a chart from 10 days in the future (ecm)....this combination of heights between Greenland and Europe is a real killer for the UK for some time in terms of what most are looking for here.

 

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Morning all. Just a bit of a ramp from me. That cold front shown on the fax is now currently producing a fair bit of fresh snowfall and lowering of temps in the Eastern Alps. I know you lot are barren of any snow prospects but a High Centre close to the British Isles produces some really good snowfalls synoptics on its most Eastern  boundary, especially when a localised NEly flow develops in these parts of the Austrian Alps.

20220117.0628.PPVA89.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

The proposed repeated dumbelling displaced Azores high has indeed been edged east by the models (we expected it wouldn’t become a set feature which the nwp seemed keen on ).  So we are left with a nw euro high for a period. At the moment, it looks like the flow is more likely to flatten than amplify further.  whilst the south could remain close enough to a euro high to keep some frost (and possibly fog), the north will likely see a succession of Atlantic systems headed across.  That’s the way the ens are headed and have been for a few runs …..the ec and gem ops keenest whilst the gfs less so. 

Edited by bluearmy
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