Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Ali1977]

Control at T120 looks much better than earlier - heights heading up in the right area 

[CoxR]

AO does seem to be trending more negative across models...

[northwestsnow]

Yes the control has moved towards the High getting further North...

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I agree. If we still end up cold, I'd rather it snow rather than just cold weather though.

Yes, you need the low heights down the whole country, not just the uppers and not just the East coast, ala 17th or 18th Dec 2010, yes a straight Northerly even with -13c uppers wouldn't deliver well inland but wind direction can vary once we get to that point.

[northwestsnow]

Control 12z

Control 6z

[Lukesluckybunch]

op and control identical at 120,good signs guys and yes a much better mean at the same timeframe!

[TSNWK]

Still cold at surface and what do we think round 2 with Greenland heights or a cheeky wedge to our norther ?

Edited January 10, 2022 by TSNWK

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Icon has far better dealing of short wave spoiler lows it has nailed every single North Atlantic storm since 2015. So will likely have the more accurate projection here.

You're probably right. To me it looks like which model has the best handle of how much to amplify the jet buckling north towards / over Greenland ahead of the eastern seaboard storm moving over NE Canada late in the weekend and the resultant downstream trough amplification over NE Europe. The longitude of the equatorward jet coming down from Greenland into northern Europe will determine how far east/west the northerly will be as well.

[ICE COLD]

Still going cold at day 11

[Ali1977]

GEM sending heights up the west of Greenland too

[Daniel*]

GFS triumphed with colder higher pressure it took ECM days to follow so don’t always dismiss it. The polar vortex visiting Europe could be a big force on pattern just need high pressure sufficiently west no need for spectacular blocking. It might not be the most prolonged spectacle but in my opinion the potential is clear to see.

[northwestsnow]

GEM also much better than the 00z run..

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM sending heights up the west of Greenland too

Ukmo looking isolated atm, it's 168 run gives us a cold high.

Icon was so close to going down the GFS route, plenty of time for corrections either way

[Mike Poole]

GEM T144 looking good so far too:

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo looking isolated atm, it's 168 run gives us a cold high.

Icon was so close to going down the GFS route, plenty of time for corrections either way

So are we saying that worse of the lot up to 168 is ukm and even that gives as a cold high?

[Ali1977]

The Control will be great and as cold as the Op I’d say , and so will 6/7 ENS but not as much ENS support as I hoped. Nice having the GEM on board. Need ECM on board 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, TSNWK said:

So are we saying that worse of the lot up to 168 is ukm and even that gives as a cold high?

Yes it's pops out the low around the Azores at 108, which stops the high from being propped up towards greenland, so when the storm rides up the east coast of USA it's not in the right place for the jet stream to drag it up

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168 is close to being a very good chart ..

There is troughing acting to help the High from sinking under the weight of the jet..

clearly the smart money is on the block sinking away ...It may do, it may not.

Ps ,that's a split TPV on ukmo ?

 

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So are we saying that worse of the lot up to 168 is ukm and even that gives as a cold high?

Not sure I would call it a cold high but I know expectations have been modified in recent years

[Kasim Awan]

GEM move towards Gfs.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Not sure I would call it a cold high but I know expectations have been modified in recent years

Inversion cold then codge!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

GEM move towards Gfs.

I dont rate GEM if honest.

But,I do tonight.

[Lukesluckybunch]

the op as was expected right at the cold end of ens! GEM is absolutley brilliant best of the bunch

Edited January 10, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont rate GEM if honest.

But,I do tonight.

Let's hope ECM copies it's homework later 

[alexisj9]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, you need the low heights down the whole country, not just the uppers and not just the East coast, ala 17th or 18th Dec 2010, yes a straight Northerly even with -13c uppers wouldn't deliver well inland but wind direction can vary once we get to that point.

Or south moving troughs.