Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[knocker]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Well we all know the rare breed on here who are mild lovers will go for P16 at the same time frame

 

 

Speaking as one of the rare breed, it really quite despicable to tar us with the same brush as the cold fraternity.

[Cambrian]

It really is such fine margins at the moment. The 6z GFS mean T850 chart has the UK and Ireland under subzero uppers at 192h, not particularly cold but certainly not mild either.

 

A look at the ensemble pack shows that the most popular solution for our neck of the woods is for high pressure, either sitting directly over us or nearby to our west or southwest, 17 of the 30. However, 10 of the 30 show us under low pressure and 3 are marginal, typically giving a westerly. 
 

Around 8 of the 30 have amplification reaching up into Greenland, 6 have us in some form of northerly, even more with prospects soon thereafter, admittedly all probably transient northerlies, and 10 show us with uppers of -4 or below. This type of counting and clustering is always a bit subjective but I’ve tried to be fair and split the difference.

On this run then, most likely to be primarily under the influence of high pressure by day 8, though great variations in its position relative to us, with consequently milder or colder surface conditions, though notably, about a third of the set indicating the possibility of something very different. 

[markw2680]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

After looking at this mornings runs 'Limpet High' is the first thing that comes to mind, ECM brings little joy and in fact is a snooze fest whilst naturally GFS tries to bring in a bit more amplification and the odd brief Am plunge (mainly a glimpsing shot).

As for the cherry picky perturbations...when has a rogue really cold one ever come to fruition? pointless...

As I clearly say it’s cherry picked was just showing it’s there so you never no, what’s pointless about discussing it as it’s model related? Would rather I just said mild for the foreseeable and that’s that?

[Cold Winter Night]

There is still a lot going on with the transfer of tPV core East and an attempt to bring it back later.

The EPS regime chart illustrates the uncertainty surrounding the placement of the High up to 192h. Lots of scatter, no clear direction.
Heights somewhere in the Atlantic, the members going furthest to the bottom left are associated with more Greenland ridging and Scandi troughing, but they don't have much support for now.

This picture continues in the days after that, as seen on the 192h-240h clusters, for the most part it's heights where we like them, but they are not accompanied by low heights where we like them (over Europe). So a WNW flow it is, with temperatures close to average.

Comparing the 240h clusters to the same day at 360h, five days ago, it's interesting to see that the NE trough is generally brought closer to Europe. Also more prominent Greenland heights connecting to Atlantic heights. But without these heights getting undercut from West and East, we should not expect miracles from it.

The change in output in FI five days laterdDoes not have to mean much, we cannot extrapolate such a trend, but perhaps the EPS is a bit slower to bring the tPV back to Canada in its entirety.

[Froze were the Days]

16 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

As I clearly say it’s cherry picked was just showing it’s there so you never no, what’s pointless about discussing it as it’s model related? Would rather I just said mild for the foreseeable and that’s that?

No problem at all particularly if there are a number of other perts along the same theme but when it's a rogue one I see it as a bit 'pointless' and a -20 northerly? if you believe that but then the GFS comes out with some over the top modelling at times or outcomes, what would us 'coldies' do without it? as another poster said it's there to fantasise over or as another has pointed out to amuse over, Keep the comedy coming! 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[LetItSnow!]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No problem at all particularly if there are a number of other perts along the same theme but when it's a rogue one I see it as a bit 'pointless' and a -20 northerly? if you believe that but then the GFS comes out with some over the top modelling at times or outcomes, what would us 'coldies' do without it? as another poster said it's there to fantasise over or as another has pointed out to amuse over, Keep the comedy coming! 

Knowing how things can get, I support all the amusement possible... within reason 

[Lukesluckybunch]

afternoon all!..im surprised that nobody posted the 6z ensembles i thought it looked slightly better then 0z with a more ridging showing particular before and around the 300h mark..and as for pert 11 yes it was unbelivably cold! number 12 wasnt too shabby also

Edited January 10, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
speilling mistake

[Staffmoorlands]

22 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

afternoon all!..im surprised that nobody posted the 6z ensembles i thought it looked slightly better then 0z with a more ridging showing particular before and around the 300h mark..and as for pert 11 yes it was unbelivably cold! number 12 wasnt too shabby also

Not worth looking at the 6z until we see an improved ECM/UKMO and a better outlook from the Met Office 30 day forecast imo 

The Met office are expecting the high to stick around for sometime and slowly move south east to allow more unsettled  conditions for the north west.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[Battleground Snow]

Another near miss on the icon, an improvement at least on its 00z run.

Cold hunt is a bit of a slog atm

We need the low to hang back west as much as possible over Canada to keep driving WAA up

Edited January 10, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Another near miss on the icon, an improvement at least on its 00z run.

Cold hunt is a bit of a slog atm

 

 

it sitll may make it?..i was just about to post ICON i think it looks a good run

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

it sitll may make it?..i was just about to post ICON i think it looks a good run

A cold high is better than nothing I suppose and, there is enough time for incremental improvements over the next 48 hours to get a few cold days in

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

A cold high is better than nothing I suppose and, there is enough time for incremental improvements over the next 48 hours to get a few cold days in

yes i agree on the ICON the 2m temps were actually cold throughout if not very cold! think maybe the highest was around 5/6c

[Methuselah]

Looks to me as if the signal gets utterly lost, among the noise, by Day 7 or so? At least, that's how I see a perb that shows -18C T850s. Even if it is at Day 10!

    

[supernova]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks to me as if the signal gets utterly lost, among the noise, by Day 7 or so? At least, that's how I see a perb that shows -18C T850s. Even if it is at Day 10!

    

Agree with that. Although if you're going to get lost, Perb 11 is exactly the way to do it.

PV relocating almost exclusively East thereby allowing a Greenie high to roll into a Scandi high into a 2010ish redux. GEFS says 3% chance. Common sense says no chance! Let's see tonight's run can increase the odds (methinks probably not).

EDIT: Hang on a minute....Northerly incoming 12z?

Edited January 10, 2022 by supernova

[johncam]

40 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Not worth looking at the 6z until we see an improved ECM/UKMO and a better outlook from the Met Office 30 day forecast imo 

The Met office are expecting the high to stick around for sometime and slowly move south east to allow more unsettled  conditions for the north west.

Mild and mostly dry up here, nothing  in charts to suggest anything really cold 

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO looking ok imo better upstream angle of the trough over scandi

[Kasim Awan]

I can only see the northerly attempt 144h to 168h going mostly east of the UK before the Azores / Atlantic high topples in from the west. No data suggests otherwise atm.

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO looking ok imo better upstream angle of the trough over scandi

GFS is so much different compared to the UKMO, the low propping up the high,

this run will be very close to a decent northerly around 174 I think

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO looking ok imo better upstream angle of the trough over scandi

Yes, heights building far enough West to maybe give us a better chance of a decent northerly - even if it’s only for a day or so. If we could get a northerly and some snow before the HP kicks in it would be great for more severe frosts moving forward !! 

 

GFS May also bring us a good northerly

Edited January 10, 2022 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS is so much different compared to the UKMO, the low propping up the high,

this run will be very close to a decent northerly around 174 I think

indeed lets hope so,pressure starting to rise up west side of greenland

[Ali1977]

I’m hoping this is a decent upgrade for a northerly - we aren’t in FI here but I’ll wait to see where it goes before getting carried away!! Heights doing very well here ️️️

[alexisj9]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks to me as if the signal gets utterly lost, among the noise, by Day 7 or so? At least, that's how I see a perb that shows -18C T850s. Even if it is at Day 10!

    

There's enough scatter at day four, possibly even day three, to call that FL, position of the high, whether west, over us or just to the south, anything after that and it shows in the scatter, is fl.

Edited January 10, 2022 by alexisj9

[Ali1977]

I’d booom this if I had any faith, I mean this is only day 6!! It won’t take a lot to give me a boom

[SqueakheartLW]

High further NW on 12z vs 06z and the low is also further west as well. Maybe more of a direct hit but will we see the 06z P11's insanely cold uppers on the op?

Edited January 10, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’d booom this if I had any faith, I mean this is only day 6!! It won’t take a lot to give me a boom

AO tanking too

ECM was an outlier on its 00z run on pressure and temps, need that on board at 144 later.