Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[CoxR]

06z GFS ensemble suite

18z GFS ensemble suite

What a difference 12 hours makes  GFS seemingly performing very poorly so far this winter - at least for our neck of the woods!

 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Op pretty much an outlier then.

Last chance saloon for a big Northerly 00z runs..

Stranger things have happened ..

I'm just glad we've a few days of calm ,seasonal weather.

Yeah agree though it's a very slim risk.This winter so far has been a conveyer of last chance saloons that no model has decided to get on

[Cheshire Freeze]

First out is the ICON- awful again...just a conveyor belt of mid latitude heights pushing in from the Atlantic, PV draped to the N of these heights like a heavy lid.

If we move towards ENSO neutral in spring, we're heading for the likelihood of a 2018 May-July like period with continued and repeated Azores HP ridging. You can mark my words on that one. Everything is so static and there's seemingly nothing to force us out of this pattern. 

I'm sure @Mike Poole will be pleased to hear my (very) early thoughts on this  

[Battleground Snow]

Just a little bit of a difference at 144

More runs needed!

GFS v UKMO

They both actually moved the ESB storm a tiny bit west, but the ukmo doesn't cut the low off in the mid Atlantic, hence the massive difference

Edited January 12, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Mean is actually a slight improvement over the 18z,

I've got a feeling its modelling the mid Atlantic low wrong and we will see a flip on future runs 

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean is actually a slight improvement over the 18z,

I've got a feeling its modelling the mid Atlantic low wrong and we will see a flip on future runs 

But it's only the GFS playing these games. As far as I can see, no other output is interested in sharpening the pattern up at all. UKMO is as disinterested as it could be

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

But it's only the GFS playing these games. As far as I can see, no other output is interested in sharpening the pattern up at all. UKMO is as disinterested as it could be

Yes, by flip I mean to what the icon and ukmo are showing, the icon hasn't once cut that low off, if ECM doesn't later it will have smashed all the models again.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, by flip I mean to what the icon and ukmo are showing, the icon hasn't once cut that low off, if ECM doesn't later it will have smashed all the models again.

Ahhh yes just re-read...not slept yet!

I concur.

[Weather-history]

Starting to wonder just how anticyclonic this January could turn out. January 1997 was a pretty anticyclonic month

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Starting to wonder just how anticyclonic this January could turn out. January 1997 was a pretty anticyclonic month

50/50 chance of drought come summer IMO. 

Next month and perhaps April may bring some rain. We'll see how it pans out, but yes the persistence of HP is noteworthy. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

No wonder a lot of people in the southern states don't believe in climate change and a warming world- every winter recently they're hit by brutal Arctic cold

All to do with that ever present HP just off the west coast. It's that which has helped ruin our winters recently.

Edited January 12, 2022 by CreweCold

[Weather-history]

The lowest pressure in the GFS 0z ensembles up to 240 hrs and it is just under 1000mb. A complete pressure outlier as well for that timeframe. 

[Chesil View]

Rolling rolling rolling 

Keep that high just Rolling

More of the same old same old from the gfs with just another little tease at 384. Which I for one won't be chasing.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Rolling rolling rolling 

Keep that high just Rolling

More of the same old same old from the gfs with just another little tease at 384. Which I for one won't be chasing.

That’s precisely the timescale we should be looking at, not the phantom 18th.  
Excellent run the 00z GFS imho

BFTP

[Chesil View]

31 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That’s precisely the timescale we should be looking at, not the phantom 18th.  
Excellent run the 00z GFS imho

BFTP

It's an excellent run if you like dry weather. Fred I,d agree, but hanging ones hat on a cold blast at 384 is a fools game.  Very much hope your right of course.

[Ali1977]

ECM has another attempt at a decent ridge at 192, maybe more opportunities will arise once the blocks a little further north and west. 

Edited January 12, 2022 by Ali1977

[That ECM]

The hunt goes on.  The models found the middle ground and that’s not what we wanted.  People will moan about gfs cause it promised snow and took it away. I would say have a look at ecm and see how much it moved. Yes it promised no snow and that’s likely but only 1/2 the story imo.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That’s precisely the timescale we should be looking at, not the phantom 18th.  
Excellent run the 00z GFS imho

BFTP

We’ll all three 12z eps extended clusters had some kind of northerly come the back end of week 2 ……..

[That ECM]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We’ll all three 12z eps extended clusters had some kind of northerly come the back end of week 2 ……..

This one?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We’ll all three 12z eps extended clusters had some kind of northerly come the back end of week 2 ……..

Did they? That’s good news.  Were they showing them end of week 4 , two weeks ago?  I don’t look at the clusters, other members like yourself helpfully bring them up far more efficiently than I could

 BFTP

Edited January 12, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[IDO]

The GFS op is HP dominated, but it spotted the cut-off low before EC (usual caveats that it is the right solution) and that was a better synoptic to previous runs where the high was lower latitude. With WAA knocking on the door of the tPV from the end of this week it could lead to a brute force attack on the higher latitudes towards Greenland? If this is indeed the status quo then late Jan into Feb could give us a better shot of cold and hopefully snow. Of course, that is my optimistic take, the reality is that the NH looks a tough underlying signature to break with blocks of Pacific, Siberian and Atlantic highs, so we need the tPV to be weakened to break this chain.

Looks dry and slightly below average (2m temps) for the foreseeable down south:

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

It's an excellent run if you like dry weather. Fred I,d agree, but hanging ones hat on a cold blast at 384 is a fools game.  Very much hope your right of course.

Yes, dry will be great for now (winter golf). It’s not t384 of interest it’s the period from 26th (if you see my meaning)

 

BFTP

[weathercold]

9 hours ago, markw2680 said:

Game over? Christ the models can’t agree at all on the earlier stages let alone the later, until they can agree early on then nobody knows. Game over is soooo over used on here it’s ridiculous 

Really? Would say it’s fairly accurate- cannot see any cold spell across any of the NWP- maybe I’m looking at the wrong charts
It’s a bust for next week, simple as.

[mountain shadow]

Experience tells me that long lasting UK highs do have a tendency to move North West in the extended rather than sink, so we look towards month end for interest.

Until then, a good time to calibrate those barometers!

Edited January 12, 2022 by mountain shadow

[weathercold]

Garden and path seems apt to describe the models this winter - as quickly as they give they take away.

Poor runs overnight off the back of poor 12z and 18z. I’m sure we can all find the odd ensemble run to argue a cold spell is still a viable option but let’s be honest here - it’s a bust.

On to the next chase….surely one has to land just hopefully not by the time we reach late March.