Model Discussion - A Sensible Scottish Perspective

[JoeShmoe]

Its interesting as to what they see as 'great' is worse for us as the snow line is further south and scotland is dry/cold. Hopefully swings back to the 0z

[jellybaby1969]

17 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Its interesting as to what they see as 'great' is worse for us as the snow line is further south and scotland is dry/cold. Hopefully swings back to the 0z

There are a greater number of options for the potential snow to be north of the Midlands and even for it to be further north than Scotland. Snow south of the Midlands is now shown least likely of the options. Interesting times tho

[ghoneym]

Some Christmas day ICON predictions. Will it be cold enough for snow for many in Scotland based on these? Absoloutly on higher ground.  Costal areas /lower ground may miss out?

Edited December 20, 2021 by ghoneym

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 me when this is the chart on Christmas day 

I'm not ashamed to say that's a turn on 

[Mair Snaw]

Its all champagne and cigars in the mad house... ukmo has saved the day.. watch the gfs and ecm chuck out a stinker.. 

[JoeShmoe]

i will laugh if it all ends up in N France and there's a good chance it might. looking increasingly dry and cold xmas day here though unless we get some convection off the N Sea

[Bullseye]

Colder uppers for the big day compared to 6z run (which was very good too for us)

[Ravelin]

Once the ECM is out later I'll try to post a summary of all 4 models again. From what I've seen though the GFS seems to be stubbornly heading for a cold outlook up until the New Year despite most of the MOD thread claiming last night that it MUST be wrong. The much lauded UKMO however took a big step towards the GFS solution even although "the UKMO is never wrong at that range" being the mantra yesterday. If ECM moves towards the GFS solution in a bit, and GEM stays on it's recent path then we might finally have an idea if what it going to happen at the end of the week. That could mean more of a cold, bright outlook with flurries rather than a countrywide covering though. At this juncture I'll take that compared to the last 2 days junk.

[jellybaby1969]

Don't see much of a white Xmas in ecosse except for morning frost. Should at least be a benign chilly day and useable.

[Ravelin]

As promised, Xmas day afternoon as per the 12Zmodel runs... 

GFS

  

GEM

  

UKMO

 

ECM

 

All showing cold air across Scotland, and last 2 further South than thus morning. Also further south is any sustained precipitation, we'll probably be in a showery flow at best, but what falls will be white and fluffy. 

 

[Sceptical]

4 hours ago, Mair Snaw said:

Its all champagne and cigars in the mad house... ukmo has saved the day.. watch the gfs and ecm chuck out a stinker.. 

The ECM was not a crowd pleaser, you could've heard a pin drop.

[Mair Snaw]

6 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The ECM was not a crowd pleaser, you could've heard a pin drop.

Back to Strongbow and roll ups then..

[Ravelin]

Not much to say about the GFS 18Z, it brings the Xmas cold in a bit later again but doesn't really change much of any significance for us from what can see. 

[Norrance]

STV forecast said possible snow showers on Christmas day indicating that they think tbe fronts will be well South by then. Any ideas what models STV base their forecasts on?

[Stormeh]

Just finished a 12 hour shift at work and disappointed to find out the charts are not looking as good as they did a couple of days ago. It’s still early days as far as winter is concerned. Hopefully January can deliver for us.

[Ravelin]

Morning update and I'll stick with Xmas day for now, but hopefully that'll soon be set in stone and we can start looking further out. 

GFS

  

GEM

  

UKMO

 

ECM

 

All much the same by this point but no doubt there will be some variation to come, especially in precipitation patterns. 

Out of interest, the 850s 48hrs later... 

   

The zero line further south on all of them, with the UKMO probably being the pick of the bunch? 

[JoeShmoe]

GFS Op has a small feature bringing snow to many on the east cost xmas day afternoon

[Ravelin]

43 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

GFS Op has a small feature bringing snow to many on the east cost xmas day afternoon

  

Precipitation patterns are going to change every run between now and Xmas day though. I'd also have thought with 850s of -9/10C and temps even on the coast of 3C that it would be snow, or sleet at least, much closer to the Moray Firth coastline.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Ravelin

[Ravelin]

GFS 06Z holding iit's ground on the timing of the colder air...

Some snow potential along the Eastern part of Scotland?

 

Again, with the one for 25th I can't see why that wouldn't be mainly snow. Maybe this?

That's where my lack of knowledge kicks in big time.

[shuggee]

2 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

GFS Op has a small feature bringing snow to many on the east cost xmas day afternoon

Indeed it does - but more of a morning thing, fizzles out by 3pm:

 

[Ruzzi]

UKV pepping up the North Sea activity.... We're not talking beast style convective heaven, but still good to see some showers appearing and drifting inland a little at parts on Xmas night and into boxing day. 

Having said all that..... The way the models are, I'm still not confident on what's going to happen on Xmas yet with the constant changes and adjustments. 

I really can't help but get the feeling that the southward corrections are going continue right up to the day its happening. Seen it so many times where the front was initially shown in Scotland only for it to miss the South altogether come the day. 

The southward corrections obviously have ramifications for us as well.

Curious to see if we land a bit of snow tomorrow before it turns to rain aswell 

 

[JoeShmoe]

There are going to be so many disappointed folks in the Mad house. I can see somewhere (yorkshire, peaks etc) getting a decent fall but will be very marginal everywhere else and will only last 6 hours. Thousands of posts and most here will have seen more snow back in November lol

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Norrance]

Fax chart for Boxing Day is interesting for us North of the border.  I have a bit of across the country driving to do that day so hope that the roads are treated. Edit. This is Christmas day

edit again. Here is Boxing day.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Norrance

[Penicuikblizzard]

5 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Confident??