Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022

[Wold Topper]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:58, Mizzle said:

I understand your point with regard to current outlook in terms of the current calm in the weather. But I like the short term overviews because it helps me get a better handle on learning how weather systems evolve when I can focus on the reliable. I enjoy the winter chase in the MOD thread ( as an ever hopeful coldie), but it can be so confusing with discussions around different evolutions, across multiple models, over extended time frames

So many thanks again @knockerfor your valuable and enjoyable posts.

I echo your post, to learn i need to understand the basics, the Mod thread is pretty confusing but i keep reading thro and i am starting to read certain members posts that seem balanced and in plain English and skip by the one's who talk in rhymes n riddles (secretly showing off) so they think, a big thanks to @knocker as well

[BlueHedgehog074]

9 hours ago, richie3846 said:

Are you referring to toys being flung out of prams?

I am indeed  

To be fair, I can understand the emotion that occurs in the main Model thread at times (even though some can be prone to overreacting sometimes). I think in some ways it’s worth trying not to get our hopes filled up too much with the disappointment they can lead to when they don’t happen. However with the time of year we’re in, it can be quite easy to get caught up in some of juicy charts that arise in the shadows of Fantasy Island, even when you realise the chances of them coming off as shown can be very unlikely

Edited December 17, 2021 by DiagonalRedLine

[richie3846]

14 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I am indeed  

To be fair, I can understand the emotion that occurs in the main Model thread at times (even though some can be prone to overreacting sometimes). I think in some ways it’s worth trying not to get our hopes filled up too much with the disappointment they can lead to when they don’t happen. However with the time of year we’re in, it can be quite easy to get caught up in some of juicy charts that arise in the shadows of Fantasy Island, even when you realise the chances of them coming off as shown can be very unlikely

Yes I think our climate lends itself to wishcasting. Take today as an example, the met forecast 7 hours of glorious sun for my area. I looked out the window at 750 and had no doubt we wouldn't see a minute of sun. Indeed, there wasn't even a gap in the cloud all day and the met forecast sun right up until 2pm when they finally gave up on the idea. If I'd expected sun all day the disappointment would have been off the scale.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Sounds like your instincts regarding how cloudy it was, was right on the money. The darn sunshine shield lol.

All about not keeping your expectations too high really when it comes to things like the weather and their models/forecasts/charts. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by DiagonalRedLine

[Seasonal Trim]

2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Sounds like your instincts regarding how cloudy it was, was right on the money. The darn sunshine shield lol.

All about not keeping your expectations too high really when it comes to things like the weather and their models/forecasts/charts. 

Bib. Learned this the hard way. Took me a decade of following things on this forum to expect the worst case scenario and you'll avoid disappointment.

[Paul]

As per the message in the new model thread (hunt for cold version), this thread is now open to all model related discussion and not just short-range. For those who want a slower paced look at the models.

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, Paul said:

As per the message in the new model thread (hunt for cold version), this thread is now open to all model related discussion and not just short-range. For those who want a slower paced look at the models.

The main model thread is a bit busy so this thread could come in handy. I may just post my short range snow analysis in here vs in the main model thread.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Have edited my original post in this thread to reflect that of the name change. You’re certainly welcome to continue to use this thread for short range model discussion if you wish, though

Edited December 18, 2021 by DiagonalRedLine

[knocker]

The Russian/Greenland connection still a feature of the medium term anomalies this morning but the ecm gives more traction to the tpv lobe northern Europe and thus tends to keep the UK temps a tad colder over the period, but generally temps below average, albeit with a N/S bias. The weather detail remains a bit tricky with the two energy flows. particularly the Atlantic jet,  which is running a fair way south of the Greenland block

Edited December 19, 2021 by knocker

[knocker]

At the end of the day the clusters 120 > 168 are not going to help firm up the detail regarding the movement of the low and associated fronts and the movement south  of the colder air from the north, but they give and idea of the options on the table

[knocker]

The 06 gfs continues to push the front NE on Thursday

And then further fronts with some wave developments later Friday and through Saturday

Edited December 19, 2021 by knocker

[phil nw.]

The last fax from the MO for noon Wednesday.

 

The pattern shows frontal systems trying to make inroads from the south west.Cold air further north  as they move into the UK .

[Kasim Awan]

Summary so far

Icon - slight shift south but not quite enough for xmas day snow

- Ukmo - holds strong to easterly 

- Gfs - low to SW to strong so a lack of cold

GFS ENS - still rolling out

[Kasim Awan]

Let's not forgot 144h is still way enough time for a major shift south again.

[Kasim Awan]

Quite a bit of support within gfs ens 12z for the UKMO.

[The Northern Ramper]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Quite a bit of support within gfs ens 12z for the UKMO.

What is the gem showing?

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

What is the gem showing?

GEM is a halfway house between gfs & ukmo during xmas, very good after xmas tho with a resurgence of Greenland blocking. Still all to play for especially Boxing day onwards.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Summerstorm]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

What is the gem showing?

Not so great for Xmas Day/Boxing Day but thereafter the low moves east and allows a cooler flow 

Ah @Kasim Awan beat me to it 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Summerstorm

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

What is the gem showing?

Wonderful things unless you are in the other thread and all heights have drained away etc etc

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Wonderful things unless you are in the other thread and all heights have drained away etc etc

On the other thread it is a god awful run

Edited December 19, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Hullsnow87]

Kasim how are you what is your thinking honest which way this will go are we in for a prolonged cold spell !possibly historic or do you think we will miss out again?

[Hullsnow87]

Do we honestly believe that them ec46 and mogaps could have got this so wrong I know CFS is known for its crazy outputs and reliability?

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:

Kasim how are you what is your thinking honest which way this will go are we in for a prolonged cold spell !possibly historic or do you think we will miss out again?

Boxing day onwards looking pretty high confidence for cold and wintry now

Xmas day more 55/45 for cold into England

[Georgina]

Well I for one am very confused by the other thread 

[Summerstorm]

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

I see this threads been hijacked....

Think some of us are looking for non-biased posts as well and that's all I'll say hopefully the ECM in a while is good for everyone. 

In the meantime GEM still looks good out to day 10 with strong blocking still over Greenland maybe we should look for longevity instead of this potentially fruitless pursuit for Christmas Day. 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Summerstorm