Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[NEVES SCREAMER]

BBC app goes in to mid December and no frost or snow highlighted.  Long may it continue.

[Summer8906]

Looks like the typical winter mix on the GFS 00Z - wet, stormy and somewhat mild this week, then drier, very mild and probably dull the following week. A decent enough setup for October or March later the following week (with a realistic chance of cloud breaking and pleasantly warm, bright conditions), but not at all inspiring for mid-winter when many want Pm or Am air from high latitudes as they give us the best chance of sun.

Don't mind the occasional storm but the one factor that makes UK (and NW European, in general) winters so tedious is the endless southwesterlies. If we had a persistent NW-SE jetstream we'd still get the stormy weather at times but the fronts would move through fast and we'd spend much of our time in Pm or Am airmasses, with I suspect frequent toppling anticyclones. Basically like this past week in fact. Southwesterly types in winter just mean very wet and dull, and when it's dry it's also dull (the exception is February, when mild and sunny becomes a realistic prospect). If we have to have southwesterlies in the winter, let's have them at the end when the longer days give more of a chance of cloud breaking if pressure is high. If the mean wind direction in both December and January was northwesterly, our winters would be considerably more bearable.

Hoping the suggestion of a winter improving as time passes (e.g. in the netweather forecast) does come to pass.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Summer8906

[Froze were the Days]

Getting the feeling this month is turning out to be similar to last December (well in my neck of the woods anyway) - a cool/chilly start slowly getting progressively milder towards mid-month, what happens thereafter is anyone's guess but as Xmas comes into sight rarely does cold conditions come onto the agenda...

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Windy out there tonight.

 

 

[damianslaw]

17 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Getting the feeling this month is turning out to be similar to last December (well in my neck of the woods anyway) - a cool/chilly start slowly getting progressively milder towards mid-month, what happens thereafter is anyone's guess but as Xmas comes into sight rarely does cold conditions come onto the agenda...

Last year it turned cold at Christmas. I agree could be looking at another 2008, 2020 both delivered chilly cold first halves then milder then cold in the last week. Not had a cold run in to Christmas since 2010. My hope is high pressure will build in a position that at least brings decent frost and chilly temps by day in the run up to Christmas. A high overhead could go either two ways sunny clear and cold or dank cloudy and just chilly but no frost. Hope for the former please.

Edited December 5, 2021 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

The key temperature I'm looking at is +6C anything above that we have haven't ever recorded a cold winter. The best try was 1971/72 but zippo really from 1955. A strange quirk. Rodger went trawled through CET data and it seems to be the case. Of course stats like these are setup to change.

Edited December 5, 2021 by The PIT

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Last year it turned cold at Christmas. I agree could be looking at another 2008, 2020 both delivered chilly cold first halves then milder then cold in the last week. Not had a cold run in to Christmas since 2010. My hope is high pressure will build in a position that at least brings decent frost and chilly temps by day in the run up to Christmas. A high overhead could go either two ways sunny clear and cold or dank cloudy and just chilly but no frost. Hope for the former please.

Yes Xmas day and Xmas Eve 2020 was fairly cold but the run up bordering on very mild...thereafter colder towards the New Year followed by the abysmal January where here it rained and rained and was fairly cold at times.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I think the ECM will be rubbish for a few days yet, looking beyond T280 for any chances of decent blocking going off the GEFS. It will be I retesting to know what the clusters say, snd see if there are more cold runs in the de-bilt spread!! 

let's hope something starts to appear,as December could quickly become a right off! And we don't want that continuing into january!

[Tn9]

On 05/12/2021 at 08:48, damianslaw said:

Last year it turned cold at Christmas. I agree could be looking at another 2008, 2020 both delivered chilly cold first halves then milder then cold in the last week. Not had a cold run in to Christmas since 2010. My hope is high pressure will build in a position that at least brings decent frost and chilly temps by day in the run up to Christmas. A high overhead could go either two ways sunny clear and cold or dank cloudy and just chilly but no frost. Hope for the former please.

depending where you are of course. What your moaning about and ramping up ,lack of ,more of ,etc etc ,regional would be better because everywhere is different to a certain degree(excuse the pun ) lol,but i could moan  ..but ..this should be the busiest tread really with swearing and proper having a pop at who you want  about whatever you  wanted ..no questions asked lol

ps i dont mean at each other but forecasts ,computer modelling ,when we  lose plot wilh it all..:-)  dank and chilly is the worst ..add cold drizzle ,drives the most sensible insane 

Edited December 5, 2021 by TN9

[Guest]

Usual setup. Logging off now until Christmas due to the usual fair of cold rain. By then I hope HP is being established before the floods begin mid Jan.

[Mapantz]

Relax and watch this:

 

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

I actually watched that a couple of days ago.

I find some of the Maths videos on that channel hard going but the science videos are a lot easier to understand.

[cheese]

An absolutely frigid day across Scandinavia and the Baltic states today. Anyone jealous?

[BarometerCat]

12Z GFS  - so far I'm seeing Low after low etc..   <<< That's a but of a moan.      On the plus side, I don't think that's it and it's the GFS..

[Stabilo19]

So when is the front loaded winter supposed to start?

[johncam]

On 06/12/2021 at 16:40, Stabilo19 said:

So when is the front loaded winter supposed to start?

Exactly  mate

[Staffmoorlands]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

An absolutely frigid day across Scandinavia and the Baltic states today. Anyone jealous?

That will soon be replaced with much milder temperatures in the coming days sadly

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, Stabilo19 said:

So when is the front loaded winter supposed to start?

It gets said every year in autumn, never happens though.

Edited December 6, 2021 by Freeze

[ChannelThunder]

5 consecutive days of southerlies or southwesterlies on the latest ECM from Sunday. Hardly the blocked cold set-up promised in the model thread for mid-month

[damianslaw]

57 minutes ago, Lance M said:

5 consecutive days of southerlies or southwesterlies on the latest ECM from Sunday. Hardly the blocked cold set-up promised in the model thread for mid-month

It's the longer term focus needed here.. we'll have to endure a few days of mild south westerlies/southerlies in exchange for something increasingly colder, heights building from the south building north more in time, cold surface air in the depths of winter - cold. It's about the bigger picture, and setting of foundations.. atlantic will be forced to apply it brakes abruptly!

Edited December 6, 2021 by damianslaw

[Evening thunder]

Really hope we don't get a stagnant or 'mild' high set up in about 10 days like hinted. Don't want the weather to become a snoozefest just as I go back to Devon for Christmas, with little meteorological interest, little cold/snow interest, and little chance for me to get out kitesurfing which I can at least do with breezy mild or Atlantic weather. 

Would be fitting though, I missed interesting weather events in Devon starting literally the night I left, as usual, and the weather turns off as soon as I get back.
Last year the Christmas hols were mostly just a cold and grey waste in Devon too.

And just for an additional kick in the teeth the pattern shows west Canada getting plastered, as typical with La Nina, where I might have got to do a ski season had COVID not closed the IEC visa until recently. 
 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Evening thunder

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

Really hope we don't get a stagnant or 'mild' high set up in about 10 days like hinted. Don't want the weather to become a snoozefest just as I go back to Devon for Christmas, with little meteorological interest, little cold/snow interest, and little chance for me to get out kitesurfing which I can at least do with breezy mild or Atlantic weather. 

Would be fitting though, I missed interesting weather events in Devon starting literally the night I left, as usual, and the weather turns off as soon as I get back.
Last year the Christmas hols were mostly just a cold and grey waste in Devon too.

And just for an additional kick in the teeth the pattern shows west Canada getting plastered, as typical with La Nina, where I might have got to do a ski season had COVID not closed the IEC visa until recently. 
 

Agreed ET.

Would be depressing if all we end up with on MJO phase 7 is a 'faux cold' (copyright Steve Murr) high pressure. I really hope it can push into Scandanavia proper with the Atlantic sliding underneath.

[Yarmy]

On 04/12/2021 at 13:04, NEVES SCREAMER said:

BBC app goes in to mid December and no frost or snow highlighted.  Long may it continue.

Just a huge destructive storm with localised flooding. Joy to the World!

[Freeze]

Very strong winds later with a potential squall line, the kind of exciting weather I'm all about! Hopefully some embedded convection aswell. 

[AderynCoch]

A decent start to winter here, nothing exceptional but good all the same. Had one major snowfall and two or three light ones already. They didn't stick around too long but it's only early December.

Some pictures from last weekend in the forest: