Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 13 Jan - Saturday 22 Jan

A continuation of largely settled conditions is most likely as we head into the middle of January with high pressure in charge across the south of the country. Most areas will be dry with any spells of rain and stronger winds likely to be restricted to northern parts of the country. The settled weather will bring widespread overnight frost as well as morning fog patches. Amounts of sunshine are uncertain with areas of fog and low cloud potentially lingering by day in places, especially in the south. How long the predominantly settled condition persist is uncertain with an increasing chance of some unsettled spells returning to many parts as we head towards the end of the period.

Sunday 23 Jan - Sunday 6 Feb

A more unsettled regime is most likely during late January and into early February with spells of wet and windy weather followed by brighter but showery interludes. Northwestern areas are likely to be wettest with southern and eastern areas seeing the best of any drier interludes. Overall temperatures are most likely to be near or a little above average though some colder interludes are possible. Snow could fall to lower levels at times in any colder interludes but is most likely over higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled, mostly mild. No sustained cold expected

____________________

Saturday 8 January to – Sunday 16 January

Mild with a drier pattern in the South

This weekend will be affected by a series of fronts driven by low pressure systems near Iceland. On Saturday a band of rain will move in from the west to affect all regions through the day. The rain will clear to the east by the evening, but showers will develop over western parts. Sunday is expected to be a better day except for the western areas where a further band of rain moves across later. Temperatures should be around 1C above average for the time of year.

We stay under the influence of Atlantic lows early next week. Monday will see the wetter weather over Northern Ireland and Scotland and then possibly Northern England later in the day. All regions apart from Scotland become drier through Tuesday and conditions remain settled into the latter half of the week except for Scotland where windier and wetter weather may continue at times. Temperatures will be mild with Monday and Tuesday peaking at 3-4C above average.

Monday 17 January to – Sunday 23 January

More unsettled for all parts by mid-week. Mild

Into the third week of January, low pressure is favoured from Northwest to Eastern Europe with high-pressure west of Iberia. This would bring a wetter and windier pattern over northern and western parts of the United Kingdom.

Monday and Tuesday will see a similar pattern to the weekend, so dry and settled over Northern Ireland, Wales and England while Scotland will see occasional bouts of rain. A change to the pattern with periods of rain further south may come mid-week and then persist into the weekend. It's also likely to become windier. Temperatures over the week should be around 1-2C above average for England, Northern Ireland and Wales but nearer to average in Scotland.

The weather is more uncertain this week with the computer models suggesting different solutions. It is possible the high pressure is located further northeast across Western Europe and the low pressure is more over Scandinavia and Northwest Russia which would bring more settled conditions.

Monday 24 January to – Sunday 6 February

Periods of wind & rain. No sustained cold periods

By late January high pressure over the Central North Atlantic extends to Iberia with low pressure over Northwest Europe and Scandinavia This would maintain a seasonal to slightly mild pattern. Wet and windy over all regions, possibly very windy over Northern Ireland and Scotland. We can also expect some calmer drier days between the fronts. This would bring near average or slightly mild temperatures overall for the week.

Into February the models are performing poorly, and confidence is low this far out. Low pressure is favoured near Iceland across to Scandinavia with the Azores high extending across Southern Europe although some northward movement of the high over the week is possible. This would maintain the seasonal to mild pattern. Periods of rain and wind are likely for most regions although Southeast England should have more settled days.

Further ahead

In the next update we'll find out if the computer models are in better agreement for the pattern from late January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Don]

And so it goes on......

A slightly better Metoffice update for cold seekers though.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Don

[Dancerwithwings]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

And so it goes on......

A slightly better Metoffice update for cold seekers though.

Further head made me chuckle, never seen that before.

“We’ll find out IF the Models are in a better agreement”....I thought they had the biggest computers in the world that done that for them

Oh! sorry, I missed (agreement) don’t we know  

Edited January 8, 2022 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

Friday 14 Jan - Sunday 23 Jan

A continuation of largely settled conditions is most likely as we head into the middle of January with high pressure in charge across the south of the country. Most areas will be dry with any spells of rain and stronger winds likely to be restricted to northern parts of the country. The settled weather will bring widespread overnight frost as well as fog patches, these sometimes freezing. Amounts of sunshine are uncertain with areas of fog and low cloud potentially lingering all day in places, especially in the south. How long the predominantly settled conditions persist is uncertain with an increasing chance of some unsettled spells returning to many parts as we head towards the end of the period.

Monday 24 Jan - Monday 7 Feb

A more unsettled regime is most likely during late January and into early February with spells of wet and windy weather followed by brighter but showery interludes. Northwestern areas are likely to be wettest with southern and eastern areas seeing the best of any drier interludes. Overall temperatures are most likely to be near or a little above average though some colder interludes are possible. Snow could fall to lower levels at times in any colder interludes but is most likely over higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

• North - Mild and breezy
• South - Colder with mist and fog

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/59928769

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 15 Jan - Monday 24 Jan

A continuation of largely settled conditions is most likely as we head into the middle of January with high pressure remaining in charge across the south of the country. Most areas are set to be dry with any spells of rain and stronger winds likely to be restricted to northern parts of the country. The settled weather will bring widespread overnight frost as well as fog patches, these sometimes freezing. Amounts of sunshine are uncertain with areas of fog and low cloud potentially lingering throughout the day in places, especially in the south. There is an increasing chance of some unsettled spells returning to many parts as we head towards the end of the period.

Tuesday 25 Jan - Tuesday 8 Feb

A more unsettled regime is most likely during late January and into early February with spells of wet and windy weather followed by brighter but showery interludes. Northwestern areas are likely to be wettest with southern and eastern areas seeing the best of any drier interludes. Overall temperatures are most likely to be near or a little above average though some colder interludes are possible. Snow could fall to lower levels at times in any colder interludes but is most likely over higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 16 Jan - Tuesday 25 Jan

Initially some brighter conditions to be seen once low cloud and patchy fog clear, before becoming increasingly less settled, particularly in the north, as frontal systems arrive from the Atlantic. Drier and more settled conditions persist for longer in the south with light winds and clear skies leading to overnight frost and fog, which may be slow to clear through the morning. Towards the middle of this period there remains a possibility that low pressure could move east, bringing strong winds and cold wintry showers to windward coasts. Temperatures are most likely to be slightly above average in the north whilst remaining near normal towards the south, with a low likelihood of a short-lived colder spell.

Wednesday 26 Jan - Wednesday 9 Feb

This period is likely to see a gradual transition to more unsettled conditions. Heaviest precipitation is likely to occur across the northwest, particularly later in the period, whilst drier than average conditions are more likely to affect the southeast, particularly earlier in the period. Spells of strong wind are likely, particularly in the north. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall. Some colder interludes are still expected though, bringing a risk of occasional snow, most likely over northern hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Don]

Rather uninspiring updates continue, although they do acknowledge the small chance of a short lived colder spell in the south.  Apart from that though, a pretty mediocre outlook away from northern areas.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Don

[Summer Sun]

Monday 17 Jan - Wednesday 26 Jan

Settled with sunny spells Monday with mist and fog clearing. Cloudier conditions with rain possible in far northeast, initially wintry turning back to rain later. Light winds expected, with a risk of gales for far northeast. Temperatures around average, possibly cold in northeastern parts. Thereafter becoming increasingly less settled, particularly in the north, as frontal systems cross the Atlantic. Drier more settled conditions persist further south, with light winds and clear skies leading to overnight frost and fog. Later in the period there remains a possibility that low pressure could move east, bringing strong winds and cold wintry showers to windward coasts. Temperatures are most likely to be slightly above average in the north whilst remaining near normal towards the south, with a low likelihood of a short-lived colder spell.

Thursday 27 Jan - Thursday 10 Feb

This period is likely to see a gradual transition to more unsettled conditions. Heaviest precipitation is likely to occur across the northwest, particularly later in the period, whilst drier than average conditions are more likely to affect the southeast, particularly earlier in the period. Spells of strong wind are likely, particularly in the north. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall. Some colder interludes are still expected though, bringing a risk of occasional snow, most likely over northern hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A more unsettled pattern from late January

____________________

Wednesday 12 January to – Sunday 16 January

Some rain for Scotland, mainly fair elsewhere

Over the remainder of the working week, high pressure stays centred over the UK. During the weekend the high over the country drifts south-east into the continent as a weather front clips the far north. On Sunday a new area of high pressure approaches the country from the Atlantic.

Wednesday will be calm and dry over much of the country, but western Scotland may still see some light rain. Fog will be a risk over England and Wales. A similar pattern is expected on Thursday but by Friday the risk of rain over Scotland recedes. Temperatures over the working week will start near to average but then become cooler from Thursday.

England, Wales and Northern Ireland should remain dry throughout most of Saturday. Scotland will see some light rain affecting northern and western parts at times, but it will be drier elsewhere. Sunday is looking fair for all parts except perhaps for northern Scotland where some rain or drizzle is possible. Temperatures over the weekend start around 1C below average on Saturday but rise nearer to average on Sunday.

Monday 17 January to – Sunday 23 January

Some rain in the north, drier in the south. Mild

Next week low pressure is most likely from Scandinavia to eastern Europe with high pressure over western Europe. The high may become centred over the UK at times bringing a wetter and windier pattern to northern areas. Monday should be dry and settled over Northern Ireland, Wales and England. Fog is possible. Scotland will have occasional outbreaks of rain.

Tuesday starts with a similar pattern but a more organised band of rain may move across Northern Ireland and Scotland later in the day. Wednesday continues with the drier, settled weather south of northern England. Thursday may see some drier conditions for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The settled conditions may persist into the weekend although some weather systems could clip the far north of the country. Temperatures next week should be around 1C above average.

The weather pattern does become more uncertain during this week with the computer models suggesting different outcomes. It is possible the high pressure moves further to the south over the Azores. This would bring a wetter and windier pattern to the country.

Monday 24 January to – Sunday 6 February

Periods of wind & rain. No sustained cold spells

By late January low pressure is favoured over Iceland and Scandinavia with high pressure west of Iberia. This would drive a series of frontal systems across the UK and bring periods of enhanced wind and rain over all regions. It may be very windy for a time over Northern Ireland and Scotland. With this pattern we can expect some lulls in the unsettled conditions as well but forecasting exactly when this far out is difficult. Temperatures later in January should be around 1C above average for most parts but perhaps nearer to average in Scotland.

Into February the weather models are performing poorly which means confidence in the extended forecast is low. High pressure is favoured over the central North Atlantic extending to Iberia with low pressure over north-west Europe and Scandinavia. This would maintain a seasonally average or slightly mild pattern for most parts. It will be wet and windy or Northern Ireland and Scotland. Temperatures into early February should be around 1C above average for most parts.

Over the last two weeks of the forecast, it is possible that the high pressure is more favoured over north-west Europe or even becomes centred over the UK, and we would see a drier, calmer forecast. The risk of this is estimated at 35-40%.

Further ahead

In the next update will see if the computer models are in agreement with the pattern from late January onwards. We will also check for any disruption to the polar vortex which could indicate a colder period of weather in the late winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 18 Jan - Thursday 27 Jan

Settled through Tuesday across the south with fog patches clearing to leave some sunny spells, although some patchy low cloud possible in places. Cloudier, and windier in the north with rain on western upslopes. Temperatures near normal in the south likely milder in the north. Thereafter likely becoming increasingly less settled in the north, as frontal systems cross the Atlantic. Drier more settled conditions persist further south, with light winds and clear skies leading to overnight frost and fog. Later in the period there remains a possibility that low pressure could move east, bringing strong winds and cold wintry showers to windward coasts. Temperatures are most likely to be slightly above average in the north whilst remaining near normal towards the south, with a low likelihood of short-lived colder spell.

Friday 28 Jan - Friday 11 Feb

This period is likely to see a gradual transition to more unsettled conditions. Heaviest precipitation is likely to occur across the northwest, particularly later in the period, whilst drier than average conditions are more likely to prevail in the southeast, particularly earlier in the period. Spells of strong winds are likely, mainly in the north. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall. Some colder interludes are still expected though, bringing a risk of occasional snow, most likely over northern hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Norrance]

All looking rather meh I'm afraid.

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 19 Jan - Friday 28 Jan

Cloudy with some brighter spells in the south on Wednesday. The rain across the north and northwest is expected to become intermittent as it moves south through the day resulting in spells of sunshine in the north later. For the rest of the period high pressure is likely to dominate, particularly in the south, resulting in drier and more settled weather with the possibility of overnight frost and fog which may linger through the day. Any unsettled weather is likely to be in the north and northwest with a risk of a few showers but otherwise predominately dry. Windy in the north at times. Temperatures are expected to be around or slightly above average, although colder where fog persists.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 14 Jan 2022

Saturday 29 Jan - Saturday 12 Feb

High pressure is expected to remain dominant across the UK. This leads to generally settled conditions prevailing, resulting in an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog which may linger in places, otherwise bright or sunny spells. Into February outbreaks of rain and stronger winds are likely at times across the far north, whereas settled conditions are likely to persist in the south. Temperatures are looking to be slightly above average, particularly in the north however some colder interludes remain likely, bringing a risk of occasional snow, most likely over northern hills.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 14 Jan 2022

[Don]

Yes, nowt exciting ahead, although there looks to be plenty of frosts, particularly in the southern half of the UK.  Those in the north and Scotland are experiencing a somewhat different winter this year!

Edited January 14, 2022 by Don

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A more unsettled pattern from late January

____________________

Saturday 15 January to – Sunday 23 January

Rain at times in the northern half of the country

Over the weekend a fragmenting front will move south-east across the UK as an area of high pressure builds in behind it. The high will become centred over the Republic of Ireland on Sunday. Saturday will start dry for all areas, but a band of rain will move over Northern Ireland and Scotland in the evening.

The rain clears into northern England and Wales early on Sunday but then begins to fizzle out leaving a dry day for the south of the UK. Temperatures over the weekend start around 1C below average on Saturday, then rise 1-2C above average on Sunday. Early next week, high pressure will be centred over north-west France as a series of fronts clip the far north of the UK. By Wednesday the high has slipped further south-east as a weakening cold front moves south across the country. Monday looks dry for all parts.

Tuesday will see rain move over Northern Ireland early on then over Scotland later. The rain will begin to die out in the afternoon before a further band of rain moves over the northern half of the country early on Wednesday. The rain will begin to move south but largely fizzles out south of the border. Temperatures over the first half of the working week are around 1-2C above average.

Over the latter half of the week, further high pressure develops to the west of the country that moves south-east over France into the weekend. Meanwhile, some weak weather systems may affect the far north of the country at times.

Thursday is looking dry for most of the country. Some showery rain is possible over Scotland from Friday and over next weekend, but it should not be too heavy or prolonged. Temperatures over the latter part of the week and over next weekend are near average to 1C above.

Monday 24 January to – Sunday 30 January

Becoming unsettled from midweek

Towards the end of January, high pressure seems most likely over the north-east Atlantic extending east across western Europe. Low pressure systems lie near Greenland, Iceland and northern Scandinavia. Occasionally frontal systems could cross the country as the high retreats further away into the Atlantic. This looks more likely over the latter half of the week.

The first half of the week looks dry for most parts but again some fronts may push across Scotland bringing some spells of rain, but it should be on the lighter side. Temperatures later in January should be around 1.0C above average.

Things could change from midweek as the pattern becomes more mobile with a series of fronts set to cross the country. It may also get windier and Scotland could see some very high winds. There will be some drier periods as the fronts clear. We cannot time these systems well this far out, but the signs currently indicate the unsettled weather is towards the latter half of the week. Temperatures should be around 1C above average overall for the week.

Things are becoming more uncertain this far ahead. Should the high pressure occur across central Europe with low pressure across Scandinavia, this could bring a more settled, slightly cooler period of weather for the UK. We estimate this as a 35% chance.

Monday 31 January to – Sunday 13 February

Windy and slightly mild

Into February, low pressure looks most likely over Iceland and Scandinavia, with high pressure west of Iberia, extending a ridge north-east. This would maintain the near seasonal temperatures for all parts of the country, though it will be windier than average overall. Wetter weather would be expected over Scotland, but all parts of the country may be affected by some bouts of rain at times, which is typical for the season.

Into the second week of February, model performance is poor, which means our confidence for the forecast is low. We think high pressure over the north-east Atlantic extending to Iberia with low pressure near Iceland and northern Scandinavia is most likely. This would maintain typical season conditions, or slightly milder, and a windy pattern for us. Some rain could affect all parts of the country from time to time. No extremes are expected but Scotland could see some further very windy days.

Over these last two weeks, it is possible that the high pressure could be over Europe rather than the Atlantic, which would give us drier, calmer conditions. The chance of this is estimated at 40%. The polar vortex remains strong over the next few weeks and could even reach record intensity for the time of year. This confirms our belief that no sustained cold periods are likely into mid-February.

Further ahead

In the next update we hope to get a better picture of the weather over the first two weeks of February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 21 Jan - Sunday 30 Jan

Through Friday and into the weekend it is expected to be dry for many but often rather cloudy, with some light rain at times in the far north. For the rest of the period high pressure is likely to dominate, particularly in the south of the country, resulting in drier and more settled weather with the possibility of overnight frost and fog which may linger through the day. Any unsettled weather is likely to be in the north and northwest with rain at times but otherwise predominately dry. It will also be windy in the north at times. Temperatures are expected to be around or slightly above average, although colder where fog persists by day.

Monday 31 Jan - Monday 14 Feb

High pressure is expected to remain dominant across the UK. This means that generally settled conditions will prevail with bright or sunny spells for many. There is the ongoing likelihood of overnight frost and fog, which may linger in places. Into February outbreaks of rain and stronger winds are likely at times across the north, whereas settled conditions are likely to persist in the south. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above average, particularly in the north, however some colder interludes remain possible, bringing a risk of occasional snow, this most likely over northern hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 22 Jan - Monday 31 Jan

Through the weekend it is expected to be dry for many but often rather cloudy, with some light rain at times in the far north. Through the following week, high pressure is likely to be centred across or near to the UK, with dry and settled conditions for most but with the ongoing risk of frost and fog, the fog stubborn to clear in places. There is also an increasing risk of weather fronts across the northwest making erratic progress southeastwards. Behind these there could be brief, but rather cold periods, especially in the north and down the east coast where it will be windy. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly above average in the north, though below average in the south, especially where fog persists.

Saturday 22 Jan - Monday 31 Jan

Through the weekend it is expected to be dry for many but often rather cloudy, with some light rain at times in the far north. Through the following week, high pressure is likely to be centred across or near to the UK, with dry and settled conditions for most but with the ongoing risk of frost and fog, the fog stubborn to clear in places. There is also an increasing risk of weather fronts across the northwest making erratic progress southeastwards. Behind these there could be brief, but rather cold periods, especially in the north and down the east coast where it will be windy. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly above average in the north, though below average in the south, especially where fog persists.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 23 Jan - Tuesday 1 Feb

Through this period, it is likely to be settled, but often cloudy in the south with overnight frost and fog forming under any clear skies and temperatures around or slightly below average. In the north, conditions are expected to be milder and more changeable, with a band of heavier rain in the far northwest later on Sunday and strong winds and gales possible in the far north. Through the rest of the period rain or showers at times for the north, with stronger winds mainly restricted to the far north, although possibly bringing unsettled conditions further south at times. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly above average. Conditions are likely to remain similar into the start of February, with drier than average conditions for most.

Wednesday 2 Feb - Wednesday 16 Feb

Early February is likely to see a north/south split with more settled and cloudy weather expected in the south, while the north will be more changeable, milder, and drier than average for most. There is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, where the northwest is likely to be wettest, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, while the southeast is likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times in February. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Don]

A very poor update for snow and looking increasingly zonal as February progresses.......

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

A very poor update for snow and looking increasingly zonal as February progresses.......

Hard to be positive .

Another sorry excuse for a winter passes by.

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hard to be positive .

Another sorry excuse for a winter passes by.

 

Certainly looking that way isn't it! 

[Bricriu]

It's a disaster.It looks like blast from the pasts forecast is going to be a bust. Can we just fast forward to next winter?

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It's a disaster.It looks like blast from the pasts forecast is going to be a bust. Can we just fast forward to next winter?

Last winter now looks very decent indeed by comparison, even though I did not get that much snow!

[Frost HoIIow]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hard to be positive .

Another sorry excuse for a winter passes by.

 

One of the most boring winters I can remember mate. Zzzzzz zzzzz. At least we can look forward to a good summer in good old Oldham, oh wait northern blocking will no doubt rule by then!

[Bricriu]

14 hours ago, Don said:

Last winter now looks very decent indeed by comparison, even though I did not get that much snow!

Indeed it does. We've had one slight dusting of snow so far this winter. Last Winter  we had  a few days with reasonable snow cover.