December 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2021-2022

[Midlands Ice Age]

Wow...

So difficult this month... Going for 4.2C and 102mms.

MIA 

[Roger J Smith]

On 27/11/2021 at 15:08, rwtwm said:

I can see good reason to guess quite high or quite low, with nothing in between. After the last few runs, and the incessant amplification of the jet, I'm gambling on the cooler end.

3.6c please with 72mm rainfall.

Btw, how does the scoring work in the contest? I've been doing these for half the year and haven't managed to cotton on.

Scoring for CET contest is done by J10. The basic idea is that each month is ranked by closest forecasts scoring highest, larger your error, lower your score. Also you fall in behind anyone who guessed the same error as yourself. There are adjustments made by average scores and errors (which can boost somebody who has missed a contest or two), accuracy points and being on same side of normal. And you have to play at least 10/12 by end of year to be ranked in the scoring table. The EWP is very similar in scoring, but there is no minimum requirement, you get a total score from however many months you enter. The scoring systems are basically like the football leagues only if they also added a few fractional points for shots taken, corners etc (in other words not quite as simple as win-loss). The CET contest reports scores that can total as high as 500, so winning scores are usually above 450. The EWP contest gives scores out of 10.00 each month so the most you could score in a contest year would be 120.0 and the annual winning score is usually around 80. Hope that helps. 

[Roger J Smith]

For the benefit of late arrivals, the current consensus is around 4.8 C and 90 mm, and the following reasonable CET picks are not yet taken by anybody ... 6.9 to 7.5, 6.1 to 6.7, 5.8, 3.8, 3.4, 3.0, 1.6 to 2.8. 

Table of forecasts is ready to post around midnight. 

[damianslaw]

Playing safe 4.5 degrees. A variable first half some colder air at times more so in the north. Second half could go two ways either more of the same or trending colder generally which would push us into the 3s.

[Roger J Smith]

Going to revise down to 3.8, still 118.8 mm. Liking the coldish start more. 

[emmett garland]

3.4oc and 97mm please Roger

[Dancerwithwings]

On 27/11/2021 at 17:01, Dancerwithwings said:

4.9c cheers

I’ll stick with my CET guess Roger

But it’s about time I started with the EWP contest....

So my first go is....

95mm ️ Well ! hopefully when thawing is apparent that is  

[J10]

5.1c and 120mm

Edited November 30, 2021 by J10

[richie3846]

6.3c please, if it is possible to join on the last month of the year? Or do I have to wait until January?

[Roger J Smith]

11 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

6.3c please, if it is possible to join on the last month of the year? Or do I have to wait until January?

This is when it is best to join, because the annual contests run from December to next November, so we can also have seasonal portions.

But anyone is welcome to join in while the year is in progress too, you can only compete in the eventual contest standings with a high number of entries (10 or more for the CET) but you don't have to enter every month to remain in the contest. So welcome to the asylum.

 

[February1978]

5.2c and 112mm please

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with a milder and wetter than normal December with a battleground scenario in the U.K. between the Atlantic and Scandi cold cell - 5.3c and 119mm please.

Edited November 30, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover
Edit text

[richie3846]

43 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

This is when it is best to join, because the annual contests run from December to next November, so we can also have seasonal portions.

But anyone is welcome to join in while the year is in progress too, you can only compete in the eventual contest standings with a high number of entries (10 or more for the CET) but you don't have to enter every month to remain in the contest. So welcome to the asylum.

 

So by sheer fluke I've entered at the beginning of the new year! I should have known it would run by season and not calendar year!!

[Don]

4.7C and 120mm please.  Cold snaps and mild snaps alternating, largely cancelling each other out, but a colder and drier final week may allow December to come in just below the more recent averages.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Don

[davehsug]

4.6C & 102mm please.

[Godber 1]

4.2c and 116mm please.

[Derecho]

4.0C please.

[booferking]

4.0c 99mm please

Edited November 30, 2021 by booferking

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6.3c and 77.6mm please 

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of entries for December 2021

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (entry) ___________________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (entry) ______

7.6 _ 140.0 _ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 06 ) _________4.7 _ 119.0 _ Reef ( 23 ) __________________

6.8 _ 110.0 _ freeze ( 34 ) ____________________________ 4.7 _ 102.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 42 ) ____

6.3 __ ------ __Richie3846 ( 54 ) _______________________ 4.7 _ 120.0 _ Don ( 57 ) __________________

6.3 __ 77.6 __Kirkcaldy Weather ( 62 ) ______________

6.0 _ 120.0 _ syed2878 ( 21 ) _________________________4.6 __ 96.0 __Summer18 ( 10 ) __________ 

6.0 __ 85.0 __Froze were the Days ( 47 ) _____________4.6 _ 102.0 _ davehsug ( 58 ) ____________

5.9 _ 132.0 _ Stationary Front ( 05 ) _________________ 4.6 __ 97.4 __Average 1981-2010 ______ 

5.9 __ 59.0 __shillitocettwo ( 18 ) _____________________4.5 __ 85.0 __JeffC ( 20 ) __________________

5.9 _ 115.0 _ Typhoon John ( 14 ) ____________________ 4.5 __ 77.0 __weather-history ( 35 ) _____

5.9 __ 82.0 __stevew ( 28 ) ____________________________4.5 __ 85.0 __Norrance ( 37 ) _____________

5.8 _ 100.0 _ Blast From the Past ( L1-2 ) ___________ 4.5 __ ------ __damianslaw ( 50 ) __________

5.7 _ 121.4 _ coldest winter ( 41 ) ____________________4.4 _ 110.0 _ Mapantz ( 13 ) _____________

5.6 __ ------ __Kentish Man ( 44 ) ______________________ 4.4 __ 72.0 __snowray ( 30 ) ______________

5.5 __ 85.0 __DR(S)NO ( 17 ) __________________________ 4.3 __ 50.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 16 ) _

5.5 __ 70.0 __The PIT ( 31 ) ____________________________4.2 _ 102.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 49 ) _

5.4 _ 105.0 _ seaside60 ( 43 ) ________________________ 4.2 _ 116.0 _ Godber 1 ( 59 ) _________

5.3 _ 120.0 _ Weather26 ( 09 ) _______________________ 4.1 _ 130.0 _ leo97t ( 38 ) _____________

5.3 _ 101.0 _ AWD ( 46 ) ______________________________4.1 __ 90.0 __daniel* ( L1-3 ) __________

5.3 _ 119.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 56 ) ____________4.0 _ 100.2 _ Polar Gael ( 07 ) _________

5.2 __ ------ __Summer Sun ( 36 ) _____________________ 4.0 __ 95.0 __Mulzy ( 45 ) _____________

5.2 _ 112.0 _ February1978 ( 55 ) ____________________4.0 __ 88.0 __noname_weather ( 48 ) _

5.1 __ 89.0 __virtualsphere ( 15 ) _____________________4.0 __ ------ __Quicksilver1989 ( 60 ) ___ 

5.1 _ 120.0 _ J 10 ( 53 ) ________________________________4.0 __ 99.0 __Booferking ( 61 ) ________

5.0 _ 100.0 _ John88B ( 22 ) ___________________________3.9 __ 75.0 __Frigid ( 04 ) ______________

5.0 __ 83.0 __stargazer ( 26 ) __________________________3.8 _ 118.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 51, 17.5 ) _

5.0 __ 60.0 __summer blizzard ( 33 ) _________________3.7 __ 84.0 __jonboy ( 03 ) _______________

5.0 _ 103.6 _ Average 1991-2020 ___________________ 3.7 __ 95.0 __Ed Stone ( 27 ) ______________

4.9 __ 95.0 __dancerwithwings ( 24, 51.5 ) ___________3.6 __ 72.0 __ rwtwm ( 25 ) ______________

4.8 __ 81.6 __Bobd29 ( 01 ) ___________________________3.5 __ 45.0 __Ross Andrew Hemphill ( 12 )

4.8 __ 79.0 __SteveB ( 08 ) ____________________________ 3.4 __ 97.0 __Emmett Garland ( 52 ) ___

4.8 __125.0 __stewfox ( 19 ) ___________________________3.3 __ 45.0 __Earthshine ( 02 ) ________

4.8 __ 84.0 __Mr Maunder ( 40 ) ______________________3.2 __ 90.0 __LetItSnow! ( 11 ) _________

4.8 __ ------ __Mark Bayley ( L1-1 ) ____________________ 3.1 __ 66.0 __NeilN ( 29 ) ______________

4.8 __ ------ Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) ______________ 2.9 __ ------ __Walsall Wood Snow ( 32 ) 

4.75__ 95.5 __ consensus ____________________________ 1.5 __ 98.0 __SLEETY ( 39 ) _____________

 

62 on-time entries, plus four so far that are one day late, 66 in total __ consensus 4.75 C

--- =================================================================== ---

EWP entries in order

140_Irem ... 132_SF ... 130_leo ... 125_stew ... 121.4_cw ... 120_Wx26, syed, J10, Don ... 119_Reef, pSL ... 118.8_RJS

116_godb .. 115_TJ .. 112_Feb78 .. 110_Map, fre .. 105_sea .. 103.6_91-20 .. 102_Feb91, MIA, dave .. 101_AWD .. 100.2_PG

100_John, BFTP^ ... 99_boof ... 98_SLE ... 97.4_81-10 ... 97_EG .. 96_sum18 ..96.5_con .. 95_EdS, Mul, dww, ... 91_dan^ ...90_LIS

 89_virt ... 88_non ...  85_Jeff, DR(S), Norr, froze ... 84_jon, MrM ... 83_star ... 82.0_stevew ... 81.6_Bobd ... 79_Ste ... 77.6_KW

 77_wx-h ... 75_Frig ... 72_rwtwm, snow ... 70_PIT ...  66_NN ... 60_SB ... 59_shil ... 50_DRL ... 45_Earth, RAH

______________________

56 on-time entries, plus two marked one day late ^ ... 58 total entries, consensus 95.5 mm

==================================================

Late entries accepted to end of 3 Dec, and will be added to this table. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Roger J Smith
EWP consensus error fixed

[Mark Bayley]

Sorry, late this time, 4.8c please 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Starting late, sorry currently overcoming Covid (Delta variant).  
 

5.8c and 100mm.  
 

BFTP

Edited December 1, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Daniel*]

Oh dear late 4.1c and 90mm thanks

Edited December 1, 2021 by Daniel*

[Duncan McAlister]

Late guess for me of 4.8 please. Think there is potential for some decent wintriness.

[Roger J Smith]

Average and extreme CET values 1772 to 2020

 

 _______________________ Daily record values ____ Extremes of running CET

DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN _______ MAX _______ MIN

01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947) ____ 12.1 (1775) __ --3.0 (1947)

02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796) ____ 11.1 (1775) __ --3.4 (1796)

03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879) ____ 10.9 (1985) __ --3.1 (1879)

04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925) _10.9 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844) ____ 10.6 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844) ____ 10.7 (1898) __ --3.3 (1879)

07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879) ____ 10.3 (2015) __ --3.64(1879)

08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807) ____ 10.4 (2015) __ --3.65(1879)

09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803) ____ 10.1 (2015) __ --3.2 (1879)

10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784) ____ 9.9 (1979, 2015)_--2.8 (1879)

11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784) ____ 9.7 (1898,2000)_--2.8 (1879)

12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981) _____ 9.9 (2000) __ --2.7 (1879)

 13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981) _____ 9.7 (2000) __ --2.4 (1879)

14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878) _____ 9.4 (2000) __ --2.1 (1879)

15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788) _____ 9.2 (1898) __ --1.6 (1879)

16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) _____ 9.1 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) _____ 9.3 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) _____ 9.5 (2015) __ --1.2 (1879)

19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1879)

20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __--0.9 (1878,79)

21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1878, 2010)

24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (1878)

25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _--10.8 (1796) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.5 (1878)

26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.4 (1878, 2010)

27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.4 (2010)

28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (2010)

29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (2010)

30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870) _____ 9.8 (2015) __ --0.9 (2010)

31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --0.8 (1890)

________________________________________________________________ 

So from this we see that 2015 had one crack at being warmest Dec (7th to 10th), fell out of first place for a while, then resumed the lead from 16th to end of month. The closest to 2015 that any year came after the 20th was 8.7 (1898 - 21st). As for 2010, it moved into first by the 21st, had a running battle with 1878, shook that off but got nipped at the very end by 1890 which never held the lead at any other stage. Other noteworthy late negative running CET values would include 1788 which was -0.4 on 23rd and -0.3 on 30th-31st, 1796 which was running at -1.0 from 26th to 28th, 1844 which was -0.2 on 25th, 1879 held on at -0.4 to 25th, and more recently 1981 was running at -0.2 from 24th to 27th (finished 0.3). 

===============================================================

1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values

01 ___ 5.8 __ 5.8 _______ 11 ___ 4.8 __ 5.5 _______ 21 ___ 4.6 __ 5.1 

02 ___ 6.0 __ 5.9 _______ 12 ___ 4.8 __ 5.4 _______ 22 ___ 5.3 __ 5.1 

03 ___ 6.0 __ 5.9 _______ 13 ___ 5.0 __ 5.4 _______ 23 ___ 5.6 __ 5.2 

04 ___ 5.5 __ 5.8 _______ 14 ___ 4.6 __ 5.3 _______ 24 ___ 5.0 __ 5.2 

05 ___ 5.6 __ 5.8 _______ 15 ___ 5.0 __ 5.3 _______ 25 ___ 4.6 __ 5.1 

06 ___ 5.4 __ 5.7 _______ 16 ___ 5.1 __ 5.3 _______ 26 ___ 4.5 __ 5.1 

07 ___ 5.4 __ 5.7 _______ 17 ___ 4.7 __ 5.3 _______ 27 ___ 4.1 __ 5.1 

08 ___ 5.4 __ 5.6 _______ 18 ___ 4.9 __ 5.2 _______ 28 ___ 4.0 __ 5.0 

09 ___ 5.1 __ 5.6 _______ 19 ___ 4.8 __ 5.2 _______ 29 ___ 4.1 __ 5.0 

10 ___ 5.2 __ 5.5 _______ 20 ___ 4.1 __ 5.2 _______ 30 ___ 4.4 __ 5.0 

________________________________________________ _31 ___ 4.5 __ 5.0

There is a noticeable spike in mean temperature around the 22nd-23rd Dec.