Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Dorsetbred]

On 12/10/2021 at 00:13, legritter said:

Hi gang ,not posting much lately but i have been lurking in the shadows .my early thoughts for this upcoming winter are , apart from sausage baps etc etc ,im expecting a very mixed up winter in our part of the world .I wont get too man made climate doomer ,i was always a bit of a non believer ,but after some thought and reading and research and looking at the total population of our planet ,yes we are warming up the planet .But even given this , the earth still tilts its axis ,polar vortex keeps us guessing, long range forecasts still go wrong ,whatever happens im sure it will keep us on our toes gang .im hoping we see the advance guard of winter in November, with some flurries of snow ,then alternating mild and cold spells till the second week of January, then let the fun begin ,Biting winds from the east and north east , ice flows in the channel with people trying to cross from france to uk Walking , More snow than 46 /47 winter and happy Net weather posters ,take care all, cheers Legritter . 

I know you're spoofing up to the part where you say "ice flows in the channel with people trying to cross from france to uk Walking..." now I am taking you seriously!

[sebastiaan1973]

To me the Glosea5 output is reasonable. Research point to the types of La Nina. This coming winter (with glosea5) we have a central pacific La Nina. This teleconnects with a positive phase NAO bringing mild weather. There is an escape which is the stratosphere. MJO phase 7 and 8. This is a possibility if la Nina is not that strong. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Christmas 2021 Update Number 2

Christmas update number 2 is now upon me as I have collected another weeks worth of 2m temperature data so here we go. Time to present the data I have gathered so far in the image below

As we can see here just like with week 1 we have a whole range of outcomes from cold through to mild again. The main thing to take away from this week 2 is how we set a new minimum high of 11C which is highlighted in red. No new cold value was set however

Week 1 came out like this

              Average Min     Average Max     Average Mean

Temp          3.61                      5.79                    4.70

Anom        +1.52                     -1.24                  +0.14

Week 2 Summary

How does week 2 compare with week 1 and will we be milder or colder than last week

                    Average Min       Average Max      Average Mean

Temp          4.21 (up 0.60C)   5.96 (up 0.17C)  5.09 (up 0.39C)

Anom        +2.12                     -1.07                    +0.53

When we averaged out all of the max, min and mean data for week 1 it wasn't a great start for cold fans with the overall +0.14C milder anomaly. The coldies misery continues this week as we have headed in the direction of milder overall with an increase in all 3 means for max, min and mean. We now stand at a weekly average of 5.09C which is now +0.53C above the 1991-2020 25th December mean. At present the CFS is leaning towards a mild green or muddy wet Christmas rather than a white one.

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Christmas 2021 Update Number 2

Christmas update number 2 is now upon me as I have collected another weeks worth of 2m temperature data so here we go. Time to present the data I have gathered so far in the image below

As we can see here just like with week 1 we have a whole range of outcomes from cold through to mild again. The main thing to take away from this week 2 is how we set a new minimum high of 11C which is highlighted in red. No new cold value was set however

Week 1 came out like this

              Average Min     Average Max     Average Mean

Temp          3.61                      5.79                    4.70

Anom        +1.52                     -1.24                  +0.14

Week 2 Summary

How does week 2 compare with week 1 and will we be milder or colder than last week

                    Average Min       Average Max      Average Mean

Temp          4.21 (up 0.60C)   5.96 (up 0.17C)  5.09 (up 0.39C)

Anom        +2.12                     -1.07                    +0.53

When we averaged out all of the max, min and mean data for week 1 it wasn't a great start for cold fans with the overall +0.14C milder anomaly. The coldies misery continues this week as we have headed in the direction of milder overall with an increase in all 3 means for max, min and mean. We now stand at a weekly average of 5.09C which is now +0.53C above the 1991-2020 25th December mean. At present the CFS is leaning towards a mild green or muddy wet Christmas rather than a white one.

I would love a repeat of Christmas 2020, with cold dry clear sunny weather, or cold and dull. 

[claret047]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

Looking further ahead, the cfs 0z says Christmas Day will be cold! …well, that would make a pleasant change wouldn’t it!?…  

 

Sadly not so for Knocker, but Sid should be happy.

I like seasonal weather for Christmas Day but all too often the Festive period from Christmas Eve to New Years Eve is often mild.

Boxing Day 1962 is one day I will never forget. I was 15 at the time

Kind Regards

Dave

[Cloudman]

6 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Sadly not so for Knocker, but Sid should be happy.

I like seasonal weather for Christmas Day but all too often the Festive period from Christmas Eve to New Years Eve is often mild.

Boxing Day 1962 is one day I will never forget. I was 15 at the time

Kind Regards

Dave

Yes that was an exciting day, I was  9 . I recall helping the milk man with his deliveries, the snow turned to rain for a time in Manchester but the remnants of the snow that day remained until the end of January as I recall

[Weather Enthusiast91]

54 minutes ago, Cloudman said:

Yes that was an exciting day, I was  9 . I recall helping the milk man with his deliveries, the snow turned to rain for a time in Manchester but the remnants of the snow that day remained until the end of January as I recall

No central heating or double glazing in those days. 

[Dorsetbred]

Based on the CFS suggestion of somewhat cooler air across the Uk, I think I'll wait 71days before I really consider if they are going to be anywhere near accurate..

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, claret047 said:

Sadly not so for Knocker, but Sid should be happy.

I like seasonal weather for Christmas Day but all too often the Festive period from Christmas Eve to New Years Eve is often mild.

Boxing Day 1962 is one day I will never forget. I was 15 at the time

Kind Regards

Dave

Last year bucked the trend, predominantly cold between Christmas Eve and New Year. Coldest since 2010 in temp, longevity wise since 2009. I enjoyed the cold dry weather and we had a bit of snow early New Years Eve. Sadly most same periods have been mostly wet mild and windy. Exceptions 2014 bit of snow high ground 27th.. 2017 brought a couple of inches 29th that quickly thawed.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 14/10/2021 at 18:03, damianslaw said:

Last year bucked the trend, predominantly cold between Christmas Eve and New Year. Coldest since 2010 in temp, longevity wise since 2009. I enjoyed the cold dry weather and we had a bit of snow early New Years Eve. Sadly most same periods have been mostly wet mild and windy. Exceptions 2014 bit of snow high ground 27th.. 2017 brought a couple of inches 29th that quickly thawed.

The thing that crippled the spell for here last year was pockets of higher DPs and warmer uppers that coincided with precipitation. There was very little snow here all winter. It was just naggingly cold.

There was a chronic lack of deep cold air over our side of the hemisphere.

Edited October 14, 2021 by CreweCold

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The thing that crippled the spell for here last year was pockets of higher DPs and warmer uppers that coincided with precipitation. There was very little snow here all winter. It was just naggingly cold.

There was a chronic lack of deep cold air over our side of the hemisphere.

Yes we never tapped into any proper cold uppers other than briefly in the Feb easterly which was watered down. However we grew homegrown cold especially late December and early January and it was cold. We were often on the margins of the polar front.. I was happy with the cold spell between late Dec and mid Jan given how mild this period has been since 2010.

[TSNWK]

Hehe  and just like  that! A flurry of winter names emerge from their summer slumber fresh and dandy for another winter of fun... 

 

 

[weirpig]

36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes we never tapped into any proper cold uppers other than briefly in the Feb easterly which was watered down. However we grew homegrown cold especially late December and early January and it was cold. We were often on the margins of the polar front.. I was happy with the cold spell between late Dec and mid Jan given how mild this period has been since 2010.

Last winter although marginal  delivered in these parts not armagedon by any means but multiple snow days non the less  ranging from 5_6 inches to a covering   optimistic this season for much of the same  cold November would be ideal 

[SqueakheartLW]

8th winter 2021/2022 update based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 14/10/2021

As per usual we have reached my winter update time again and after the let down of an update for coldies last week lets hope the CFS can get us back on track again for a colder outlook.

December 2021

On this particular run for December 2021 the coldies better look away now or hide as this December 2021 update has returned the 2nd mildest outcome so far of all of my updates. The mean here came in at 6.35C which is +1.38C above the 1991-2020 mean beating last weeks anomaly of +1.16C above. Some very mild days within this month on this particular run, especially earlier in the month although the Christmas Day temps on this run are about the coldest we get in the month on this run so something to take away from this one at least.

Not all doom and gloom anyhow as the CFS in all of my updates has generally had December 2021 down as the mildest or least cold of the months overall.

January 2022

Last week January 2022 came back with a slightly milder than average outcome and after that I was hoping this week was going to come back as cold again. The good news for coldies is that today's January 2022 run on the CFS 00z 9 monthly came back colder than average once more with a mean of 2.74C which is -1.92C below the 1991-2020 mean compared with the +0.63C anomaly last week. What a relief we have swung back colder so quickly and gives hope that last week was very much a blip and not a part of a new trend.

February 2022

Overall February 2022 has come out as the most consistent and reliable month for some very cold anomalies apart from last week which totally blew that away with a very mild anomaly of +1.82C. This week good news has returned as the mean came in at 4.27C which is -0.62C below the 1991-2020 mean. Not a particularly cold anomaly this week but at least it has swung back colder again and we didn't end up with a very mild update for February 2022 again as if that had happened again then I would have been seriously reconsidering the back loaded winter idea the CFS has generally come up with so far.

March 2022

March 2022 has also been very reliable for producing colder than average outcomes in my updates and after last week was the only month of the 4 that had produced a colder than average update in every update of mine since the start. This week is no exception either as the mean came back at 4.53C which is -2.21C below the 1991-2020 mean. This maintains the cold March signal and is in fact one of my colder March updates and joins several updates of mine for March 2022 that have got anomalies below -2C from the 1991-2020 mean.

Overall December 2021 - March 2022 based on CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 14/10/2021

Overall we came away with a mean on this run of 4.47C which is -0.85C below the 1991-2020 mean for December to March. After last week that was the first overall milder than average run it is pleasing to see that we have immediately swung back colder than average overall once more and makes last week look more of a blip than a trend setter. I can at least say we can keep our hopes of a colder than average winter alive if the CFS is anything to go on at least.

 

A new feature and a better idea of the overall trends

Up to last week I have simply merged the new update into the previous one meaning we get an overall average of all of the runs. This to me masks the latest trends for each month as well as the overall figures and means the earlier and more likely less accurate updates are always included in the figures so I have decided to do a 3 update running mean meaning the previous 3 updates figure is used as the latest mean.

Update batch                  December 2021        January 2022        February 2022        March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 1, 2 and 3         4.17C (-0.80C)           3.11C (-1.55C)        2.76C (-2.13C)         4.02C (-2.72C)     3.51C (-1.81C)

Updates 2, 3 and 4         3.45C (-1.52C)           3.26C (-1.40C)        2.99C (-1.90C)         4.67C (-2.07C)     3.59C (-1.73C)

Updates 3, 4 and 5         4.58C (-0.39C)           3.61C (-1.05C)        2.88C (-2.02C)         5.03C (-1.71C)     4.02C (-1.30C)

Updates 4, 5 and 6         4.51C (-0.46C)           3.88C (-0.78C)        2.67C (-2.22C)         5.37C (-1.37C)     4.10C (-1.22C)

Updates 5, 6 and 7         5.70C (+0.73C)          4.84C (+0.18C)       3.51C (-1.38C)         5.16C (-1.58C)     4.80C (-0.52C)

Latest                              December 2021       January 2022       February 2022      March 2022       OVERALL

Updates 6, 7 and 8       5.55C (+0.58C)          4.26C (-0.40C)       4.57C (-0.32C)        5.01C (-1.73C)     4.85C (-0.47C)

 

As you can see above we get a better idea of the recent trends vs the previous trends.

December 2021 - As noted in several updates December 2021 has generally come out as the mildest or least cold month overall and the 3 update rolling averages generally show it to be the least cold or mildest month but the overall trend has been to shift from colder to milder unfortunately

January 2022 - A bit more reliable to produce a colder outcome compared with December 2021 but the trend had been getting worse for coldies until the latest update pushed the 3 update mean back into colder than average territory again although only by a modest negative anomaly though

February 2022 - This had been the most reliable month predicted to be cold but last weeks very mild February 2022 update has really put a dent into that colder anomaly as it works its way through the rolling means. It will still feature in next weeks rolling average too so the anomaly is unlikely to drop very much next week either if we get another colder February 2022 update.

March 2022 - With producing colder anomalies for every update it is now no surprise that March 2022 comes away with the coldest anomaly 3 update rolling mean. Perhaps we are going to get a back loaded winter and a very back loaded one too if CFS is to be believed at present

Overall - The only bad point for coldies here is how we have started out colder and have in general been getting less cold overall throughout and last weeks mild update doesn't help matters here as it is included in the latest 2 rolling averages and will also feature next week too.

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Last year bucked the trend, predominantly cold between Christmas Eve and New Year. Coldest since 2010 in temp, longevity wise since 2009. I enjoyed the cold dry weather and we had a bit of snow early New Years Eve. Sadly most same periods have been mostly wet mild and windy. Exceptions 2014 bit of snow high ground 27th.. 2017 brought a couple of inches 29th that quickly thawed.

Christmas 2020 was indeed a cold and dry one. I remember Christmas Day was clear and cold. I recorded a daytime max of around 3-4c. 
 

2017, and 14 were mixed, as they started off mild but turned colder after Christmas Day. 

[jules216]

Once again another let down this autumn. Second La Nina in a row without anything noteworthy re.winter potential in November. I was hoping that next MJO cycle will emerge in Indian Ocean early November as convection feedback from -IOD, but all models have it inactive or somewhere in Western Africa,phases 1-2, that is not going to generate Rossby wave response to typical of La Nina. If you look at typical MJO progression in years with early European cold in Novembers they all had a carbon copy phases 4-7 in November that telleconnected to that mid Atlantic ridge Sceuro trough. All forecast models have no MJO activity and if one would emerge it be in phases 1-2 sometime in third week of November. Paul Roundy plots exactly indicate the pattern that has that ugly SE Europe, NW Russian High which is ultimate cold killer pattern as if even with -NAO it would be west based with limited cold potential. Once again there will be people hyping the so called "potential" of that Ural blocking and hoping for a 2 week cold snap in February. For me its a dissapointment as I did always receive lots if snow in typical La Nina Novembers and dont care of what might the Ural blocking bring if other 10000 variables line up. I just dont understand how with -IOD there is no emergence of new MJO wave. i have checked the autumn La Nina years even with slight -IOD and all had MJO phases 4-6, dont understand how even with SST favorable there is no convection

[northwestsnow]

Early days Jules ...

I tend to agree regarding Nov.

I'm not Overly bothered about mild in Oct but I hate mild SW winds November onwards,the continent can cool rapidly with minimal solar input in the right set up.

Do not want to see a Euro high !

[Don]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Early days Jules ...

I tend to agree regarding Nov.

I'm not Overly bothered about mild in Oct but I hate mild SW winds November onwards,the continent can cool rapidly with minimal solar input in the right set up.

Do not want to see a Euro high !

Although November last year was mild, at least the winter itself wasn't so bad.  Agree though, last thing we want to see developing is that winter killer Euro high!

[jules216]

This is what we will get in November this year,if you see all models agree with slow non active mjo in phases 1-2. Slow moving trough and Sceru/NW Russian high which of course will help re.Strat but it will augment any November cold potential. You can see how different it would look if we were to have MJO in phases 4-5 for same dates. I expect UKMO to change their outlook for Nov from setlled cold to unsettled.

[jules216]

Based on some guidance, the Pacific subsidence will revert eastwards in time later in November which may permit the MJO to move trough MC, this needs to happen sooner then later as phase 4 is ugly late November, while 5 and 6 bring us back in game. So there is hope. So phase 4 lingering around 25.11 is ugly, but phases 5-6 between 20.11 - 30.11 nice.

[Downburst]

UK Met Office  Europe For Winter Dec/Jan/Feb. The chances of greater than median. So it's becoming increasingly clear a likely +NAO and if we are lucky slightly shifted north of mean position Jet. Last chart is the excellent amalgamation of the various bodies, showing the +NAO. 

 

In terms of Snow, which is what this seems to be about even if we live in a temperate climate and it's simply not a major part of the weather experience, this doesn't exclude chances of snow at all. Most years you might get a dusting or the odd year a little more, so what? Are we to read post after post that only searches for semi permeant Arctic conditions that simply aren't possible? I don't get it myself as it seems to exclude discussion of all the other winter parameters (or the weather) and actually dampens learning and discussion, with some unconscious and even conscious bullying of anyone who simply mentions the forecasts if they don't focus on the remote chances that are showing for "snow". It's great to ramp snow when it happens or about to happen, I get that. 

 

 

Individual centres' contributions to the C3S multi-system are combined so that each one weighs the same, regardless of whether they come from a single forecasting system or a multi-model (ECCC).

Produced by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, using Copernicus data. The forecasts from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) are in-kind contributions to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which we acknowledge with gratitude.

[northwestsnow]

Well the mood seems to be lurching towards pessimistic...

Have to say the W Ruusian anticyclone seems to be gathering momentum in recent November's....broadly speaking this would favour a +NAO and mild Europe with Euro high featured.

High pressure sat across Europe is horrible.

 

[Don]

53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the mood seems to be lurching towards pessimistic...

It does a bit doesn’t it?!  Still never mind, what will be will be!  I’m starting to think that the best case scenario this year may be a similar winter to last year?

Edited October 15, 2021 by Don

[damianslaw]

Alot of reference to the MJO being main factor... but hasn't 2021 been the year when MJO forecasts have failed time and time again.. I may be wrong.

[jules216]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Alot of reference to the MJO being main factor... but hasn't 2021 been the year when MJO forecasts have failed time and time again.. I may be wrong.

I have found P.Roundys regression maps connected to MJO as best tool so far and a lot medium range forecasts turned out to be carbon copies to his maps based on MJO phases. I agree with uncetainty about 30+ days ahead, but its the week 2+3 that are quite good in prediction terms that look ugly, thats why Iam rulling out anything of interest at least to about second week of November.