Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

In general I agree with you, however the article is by Andrej Flis (Recretos), pretty sure he's posted in the start thread in the past if it's the same guy.

@weirpig I agree with you.

Anyway apologies the thread has gone a wry, I'll move on.

Let's hope we all get snow for Christmas!

Here's an excerpt from one I prepared earlier, just so no one thinks I'm dissing scientists:

'I believe that research into the behaviour of the GS-NAD is a valuable endeavour and that each finding deserves the same respect/scrutiny as any other . . . it's when the Press get involved that the problems arise!'

I agree. Let it snow!

Edited October 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[throwoff]

Already some doom mongering in here!

We have not had a truly good snow experience in the SE in 2010, it will not take much to beat the last few years that is for sure. 

Personally, I am hoping for a week of snow. That is all I want.

[Yarmy]

18 hours ago, knocker said:

 Stories of the Gulf Stream collapsing or drastically slowing dowm, thus impacting the climate of western Europe, are basically urban legend. Apart from anything else the earths spin would have to change.

http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/

Thanks for this: very interesting. I must confess I was in possession of the received wisdom that a conjectured sudden freshening of the North Atlantic from the Lake Agassiz flood was the instigator of the Younger Dryas period, but it seems that it is somewhat up for debate. The Broecker article referenced is interesting too:

http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/broecker_science.pdf

"Despite the flies in the flood ointment described above, my money remains on a flood of water stored in Lake Aggasiz.Otherwise, the confluence of dates for the cessation of the Big Stone Moraine overflow, the Moorhead low- stand, and the rise in à18O in the Gulf of Mexico would have to be attributed to coincidence. But our inability to identify the path taken by the flood is disconcerting."

A later article from the same author casts further doubt:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hai-Cheng-2/publication/236943863_Putting_the_Younger_Dryas_cold_event_into_context/links/5cdb682092851c4eaba051fd/Putting-the-Younger-Dryas-cold-event-into-context.pdf

Anyway, don't want to derail the thread further.

[knocker]

Further to my earlier post I have added a relevant extract from Tim Woolling;s book, ' jet Stream', in the links to reports and papers in the Climate section

[knocker]

Looking good

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

[snowy weather]

48 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking good

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Does that show a mild weather? Does orange and red show higher temperature above the mean? 

[Don]

27 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

Does that show a mild weather? Does orange and red show higher temperature above the mean? 

Yes and yes!  A kick in the teeth for those hoping for a front loaded winter!  Infact, it looks mild all the way until end of March on that update.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Don

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes and yes!  A kick in the teeth for those hoping for a front loaded winter!

Not really, it is a three month mean after all.

In fact, I think it shows Northerly chances with Western Greenland well above average and Iceland below average.

[snowy weather]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes and yes!  A kick in the teeth for those hoping for a front loaded winter!

True but having just checked now, this same forecast looked worse (?) in 2010 so there is hope haha.  

[Don]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Not really, it is a three month mean after all.

In fact, I think it shows Northerly chances with Western Greenland well above average and Iceland below average.

Obviously it doesn't rule out colder periods, but still not a good update.  Anyway, it could be completely wrong at this range of course!

[Leo97t]

Met office October update looks good for Nov/Dec, but raging mild for Jan/Feb

[Don]

3 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

True but having just checked now, this same forecast looked worse (?) in 2010 so there is hope haha.  

Yes you're correct, the October 2010 update did look rather grim, too! 

Edited October 11, 2021 by Don

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Met office October update looks good for Nov/Dec, but raging mild for Jan/Feb

Are there monthly breakdowns?  I've only ever seen the quarterlies here. 

[Frigid]

On 11/10/2021 at 16:39, Leo97t said:

Met office October update looks good for Nov/Dec, but raging mild for Jan/Feb

Basically what happened in the winter of 2010/11. A repeat of prolonged cold over the three months or 2012/13 would be decent. 

[Downburst]

That some temperature over Hudson on the Met Office forecast. Wow., although ECM cools it off a bit quicker, Comparing the latest ECM and MET Office (The Copernicus site will be updated shortly with UK Met Office contribution etc. and you can view more data there in my experience, why the MetOffice doesn't do that on their own site who knows?)

 

UK Met

ECMWF

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Looking good

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

GW in all its glory.

Or not so glorious depending on one's preference! 

[Methuselah]

But don't forget, peeps: there were mild days in October/November 1962, '68, '69, '78, '81, '83, '84, '86, '90, '95, 2000, '09, '10, '12? And look how the subsequent winters periods turned out? I could've of course started with cold days in just about any year!?

Edited October 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[jules216]

Why bother with UKMO if this is how spring 2021 panned out against forecast with same lead time? Every year these seasonal models get thrown around like swiss rolls yet they even cant get 7 days forecast right,

[Premiere Neige]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

Looking good

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Do charts depicting similar not get wheeled out before most winters though? There is, as I'm sure you are aware, a warming commencing in the stratosphere with a further, stronger warming forecast to commence over north east Siberia in November. These are earlier than normal, so with the stratosphere seemingly predisposed to warming this season, I'm not sure how an accurate long range forecast could be produced. Just my thoughts and, as ever, we shall see.

[damianslaw]

Just now, Premier Neige said:

Do charts depicting similar not get wheeled out before most winters though? There is, as I'm sure you are aware, a warming commencing in the stratosphere with a further, stronger warming forecast to commence over north east Siberia in November. These are earlier than normal, so with the stratosphere seemingly predisposed to warming this season, I'm not sure how an accurate long range forecast could be produced. Just my thoughts and, as ever, we shall see.

These anomaly charts I doubt factor in stratospheric developments.. these are tricky to predict and there effects always unknown. I suspect they are based on factors such as Enso, SST's primarily.. solar influence, QBO probably not factored into account either.

[Premiere Neige]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

These anomaly charts I doubt factor in stratospheric developments.. these are tricky to predict and there effects always unknown. I suspect they are based on factors such as Enso, SST's primarily.. solar influence, QBO probably not factored into account either.

Precisely my point. I'm of the opinion LRF's may be like a chocolate teapot this winter. 

[Mapantz]

It always amuses me, that if these longer range charts don't show a members desired outcome, said members get their backs up. If it is the other way around, then December 2010 is on its way! 

[Premiere Neige]

For the record, and before I get shot down (if I haven't already) I am not stating I think it will be either a cold or mild winter. I am merely pointing out that a long range forecast seems difficult given the warming taking place and forecast to take place. Where the pieces fall following these warming events (and how many/how strong they will be) is anyone's guess.

[legritter]

Hi gang ,not posting much lately but i have been lurking in the shadows .my early thoughts for this upcoming winter are , apart from sausage baps etc etc ,im expecting a very mixed up winter in our part of the world .I wont get too man made climate doomer ,i was always a bit of a non believer ,but after some thought and reading and research and looking at the total population of our planet ,yes we are warming up the planet .But even given this , the earth still tilts its axis ,polar vortex keeps us guessing, long range forecasts still go wrong ,whatever happens im sure it will keep us on our toes gang .im hoping we see the advance guard of winter in November, with some flurries of snow ,then alternating mild and cold spells till the second week of January, then let the fun begin ,Biting winds from the east and north east , ice flows in the channel with people trying to cross from france to uk Walking , More snow than 46 /47 winter and happy Net weather posters ,take care all, cheers Legritter . 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I believe the GLOSEA has one of the best strat modelling reputations out there!