Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Turquoise]

Yet another day of missing all the showers and all the storms. You cant make it up. It is literally incredible how we can be this unlucky day in day out.. Absolutely incredible.

We have had 28 different cells pass us within 20 miles over the last 2 or 3 weeks in all directions, and not one has come close enough to even be worth it. One rumble of thunder all year so far despite it being one of the most thundery summers in the UK so far for a very long time.

[Coops241180]

That’s the problem with storms off to the N / NW. house faces the wrong way to get a good view

[Weather-history]

Developing stages of storm

 

[TJS1998Tom]

Off to the Lakes on Friday, can tell Lincolns going to get storms again as its usually the case whenever I'm away  one thing I've noticed though, potential forecast for tomorrow night, will most likely change 

Edited August 4, 2021 by TJS1998Tom

[Chris.R]

Cell quickly developing near me let’s see what it doess.

[Chris.R]

Supposed to be raining heavily now but nothing falling yet.

[Chris.R]

Started raining now. Wind has gone back south-easterly again so under the convergence zone.

[Coops241180]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Started raining now. Wind has gone back south-easterly again so under the convergence zone.

Aye. I’ve just looked that way and Seen something coming in. I’ll be impressed if we get as much as the last one. 

[Chris.R]

Torrential rain now. First rain for 5 days so it smells nice. Waiting to see if it will electrify.

[Coops241180]

Haha, it’s not reached us yet and I can smell it.

[Chris.R]

Extreme rain, easing off now. How is there no lightning from this?

[Coops241180]

11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Extreme rain, easing off now. How is there no lightning from this?

Wonder if it’s cooled just slightly by the earlier storm and not pushed it up high enough. That convergence zone was a bit further east of you too so might have had a hand in it not pushing up as high. 

[IanR]

good storm to east of here about an hour ago ,  a very close ground shaker cg too ,   didnt see any forks though, just the flickers  

[Chris.R]

50 minutes ago, Coops241180 said:

Wonder if it’s cooled just slightly by the earlier storm and not pushed it up high enough. That convergence zone was a bit further east of you too so might have had a hand in it not pushing up as high. 

Think you are right. Just not quite conducive. Also spend some time over the cold river before passing over me which doesn’t help.

[Weather-history]

Timelapse of today

It was a real growler

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Heavy but v localised rain on the N Yorkshire Moors this afternoon.

[Chris.R]

Tomorrow evening looking a little bit interesting now up here. Showers after the front clears with a fast moving southerly flow. Perhaps stuff in West Midlands/Welsh border travelling north in the evening. not that much instability but little bit of shear.I like fast moving days.

Friday then looks quite similar to last Wednesday 28th just slightly warmer t500s. So less potent overall.

[mac_]

3 separate storms here today in Co Antrim with some really intense rain. More forecast for tomorrow and Friday. 

[A Face like Thunder]

Good to see a number of NW posts from yesterday on this thread. I'm travelling back to Cheshire from N Yorkshire later and, despite the bright start to the day, it is not a journey I'm particularly looking forward to.

[Turquoise]

3 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Good to see a number of NW posts from yesterday on this thread. I'm travelling back to Cheshire from N Yorkshire later and, despite the bright start to the day, it is not a journey I'm particularly looking forward to.

Congleton still managd to miraculosly avoid everything once again. 

[TJS1998Tom]

Forecast still hinting storms for tonight... most likely outcome will be rain no doubt

[BrickFielder]

Main focus of storms today likely to be over Ireland with slow moving heavy downpours.

Possible storm developments for Wales, South West, West Midlands, maybe further across the south.

Not all the models agree on timing so for some models surface based storms are limited to Wales and the South West while others move the instability further East I to the early evening perhaps even getting to East Anglia or London.

Fairly weak instability across the board but some low base cloud possible in post frontal low level convergence zones which when combined with low level wind shear suggests roll up vorticity ingestion possible.

Mid to upper level wind shear is declining at this point so only the leading edge storms likely to have sufficient updraft and downdraft separation to utilize vorticity ingestion.

Overall temperatures are low for High enough instability for severe storms and timing of various components will be critical for storm initiation. Gut feeling looking at Satellite then I am not impressed with storm potential, yet something tells me we could have a surprise moderately severe storm. Over to radar watching now.

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by BrickFielder

[BrickFielder]

A few higher topped clouds with increased rainfall rates showing up in the South West with perhaps a rear frontal squall line.  No Lightning showing up apart from Ireland.  Currently affecting Swansea but speed estimate would bring it to Cardiff within the hour and towards Bristol stretching up to the west midlands within maybe two hours. Not exactly what was forecast but interesting development and typically these lines have low cloud bases, have gusty rear downdrafts and can create tail end storms at out flow boundaries which can benefit from a little insolation (rise in surface temperature) and low level wind speed shear. In other words you can get very weak spout like tornadoes from tail end convection.  At the moment cloud tops don't look high enough to give much more than a swift deluge of rain and gusty wind conditions, but worth watching to see how things develop  (beginning to show up on EUMETSAT Images along the tail edge of vorticity band).

 

[Chris.R]

There has been no rain here yet at all today. Must be in a rain shadow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 05/08/2021 at 15:39, BrickFielder said:

A few higher topped clouds with increased rainfall rates showing up in the South West with perhaps a rear frontal squall line.  No Lightning showing up apart from Ireland.  Currently affecting Swansea but speed estimate would bring it to Cardiff within the hour and towards Bristol stretching up to the west midlands within maybe two hours. Not exactly what was forecast but interesting development and typically these lines have low cloud bases, have gusty rear downdrafts and can create tail end storms at out flow boundaries which can benefit from a little insolation (rise in surface temperature) and low level wind speed shear. In other words you can get very weak spout like tornadoes from tail end convection.  At the moment cloud tops don't look high enough to give much more than a swift deluge of rain and gusty wind conditions, but worth watching to see how things develop  (beginning to show up on EUMETSAT Images along the tail edge of vorticity band).

 

It was picked up by the GFS yesterday...you can see it on the 6z run here as the darker patch of precip E wales into the Midlands