August 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 7th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.0c to the 6th & 7th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm estimates 16.36C to the 22nd. Recent years have tended to produce cooler second halves of August. There is a current model divide though regarding the mid month.

[damianslaw]

Would be good to know the running maxima value for August. Must be on course for a notably cool start to August maxima wise, its the minima which is holding the CET up.. not surprising though, given unsettled conditions in August tend to produce suppressed maxima but mild minima. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.8C -0.9C below average. Rainfall 18mm 26.2% of the monthly average.

Max value for us is 20.2C  -1.2C below average.

 

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 8th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.0c to the 6th, 7th & 8th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[seabreeze86]

14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Would be good to know the running maxima value for August. Must be on course for a notably cool start to August maxima wise, its the minima which is holding the CET up.. not surprising though, given unsettled conditions in August tend to produce suppressed maxima but mild minima. 

I can’t believe we are on the 61-90 average like you say must be the minima as the maxima has been dire 

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

I can’t believe we are on the 61-90 average like you say must be the minima as the maxima has been dire 

Maxima -0.4C below average, minima +0.5C above average.

[DAVID SNOW]

On 09/08/2021 at 12:47, seabreeze86 said:

I can’t believe we are on the 61-90 average like you say must be the minima as the maxima has been dire 

I make the provisional CET to be 15.6, so a bit below Hadley.

[Roger J Smith]

Somewhat drier look to EWP projections, 30 mm at present (25 to 7th, approx 5 mm 8th), only 10-15 more in next ten days and perhaps 5-10 days 11-16. 

That all adds up to around 45-55 mm by 25th. 

CET not showing much signs of movement staying close to 16 C. 

[Stargazer]

9 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Maxima -0.4C below average, minima +0.5C above average.

Yes, somewhere it must be warmer relative to average than down here at the southern edge of the CET zone. Reading University is showing -1.8C / -0.6C compared to average (although they are using 1991-2020 figures now, so you can take a bit off those figures for CET).

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 9th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.0c to the 6th, 7th, 8th & 9th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[Derecho]

If this mornings EC is to be believed, we'll be below the 1961-1990 average by the 20th, probably not by much but another mediocre August again. I know 2016 and 2019 had their moments but last year was exceptionally wet. 

It would be nice if we could get a warm, dry Autumn though before the onset of winter 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.9C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 18.7mm 27.2% of the monthly average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

If this mornings EC is to be believed, we'll be below the 1961-1990 average by the 20th, probably not by much but another mediocre August again. I know 2016 and 2019 had their moments but last year was exceptionally wet. 

It would be nice if we could get a warm, dry Autumn though before the onset of winter 

August 2020 had a CET of 17.6, of which only seven were warmer in the past 100 years, and only eleven were warmer in the CET record from 1659 - so it was still a significantly warm August, and did contain a notable heatwave in the first half with the most notable August hot spell since 2003.  August 2020 was actually similar in many ways to August 2004 - warm overall but also wet, although possibly less so than 2004.  

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

August 2020 had a CET of 17.6, of which only seven were warmer in the past 100 years, and only eleven were warmer in the CET record from 1659 - so it was still a significantly warm August, and did contain a notable heatwave in the first half with the most notable August hot spell since 2003.  August 2020 was actually similar in many ways to August 2004 - warm overall but also wet, although possibly less so than 2004.  

Yup, temperature wise it was a notably good August (and the heatwave was very notable for its run of 35C+ days)... but not so much in the way of useable weather, much like 2004 as you say. 2003 was the last time we had a really warm and dry August but that wait goes on another year.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup, temperature wise it was a notably good August (and the heatwave was very notable for its run of 35C+ days)... but not so much in the way of useable weather, much like 2004 as you say. 2003 was the last time we had a really warm and dry August but that wait goes on another year.

When you say a warm and dry August I have to say that they are very rare - in times past I can only recall two notably warm and dry Augusts - 1995 and 2003.  August 1997 despite being the second warmest on record for the CET, I do not think was especially dry overall as compared with those of 1995 and 2003.  Prior to this the previous warm and dry August examples I can think of were 1975 and 1976.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall 19.3mm 28.1% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 10th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.1c to the 10th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[damianslaw]

CET unlikely to change much over next few days, indeed could drop a little with maxima a little below average and the prospect of cooler nights, the latter already in evidence for the north.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[reef]

On 12/08/2021 at 07:30, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield still at 16C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Quite the change compared to July when we were over a degree below you but this month so far we're running at 17.1C.

Edited August 12, 2021 by reef

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 11th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.2c to the 11th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.1C -0.6C below normal, Rainfall unchanged at 19.3mm 28.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 12th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.2c to the 11th & 12th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.2C -0.4C. Rainfall unchanged.