Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Guest]

95% of the population live away from height and northern areas, which are naturally cooler so it's fair to exclude them from the general doom fest that is westerly driven weather.

I can't get excited about cold rain, so not keen on this setup. Although might be good for the 5% living on hills up north.

[Damp and dreary]

14 hours ago, DCee said:

This winter looks to be quite mild but very wet at times. Cold and snow no where to be seen as the Icelandic lows continue the theme probably well into January and February. The pattern is set now.

Should be better for fuel bills however.

Damn. does this mean I need to give up on this winter already? What a shame. Amazing how weather patterns can be locked in so early. here's hoping winter 2022 is better than this one is then.  

[stainesbloke]

Nice early snowfall here in Prague, 5cm and still falling

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 hours ago, DCee said:

95% of the population live away from height and northern areas, which are naturally cooler so it's fair to exclude them from the general doom fest that is westerly driven weather.

I can't get excited about cold rain, so not keen on this setup. Although might be good for the 5% living on hills up north.

Same thoughts as me usually, mild winter believer, todays 06Z shows just that, only snow is for around 300m further north, certainly no low level snow for south in next 2 weeks or so, Xmas though never know

[SLEETY]

Losing faith of seeing any snow this December, nothing new in that is their! 

[Summer8906]

There was previously more of a suggestion of a NW-SE oriented jet stream this month, producing average temperatures. Looks like that has somewhat evaporated now, with the typical mix of wet and windy plus mild, anticyclonic and dull sadly so typical of the southern English winter (as discussed in the similar winter thread). The problem is, the low pressure zone over continental Europe to the E and SE of here seems to be evaporating this week, and it's that which is currently steering the lows NW-SE. After that goes, we end up with the tedious WSW-ENE movement of lows meaning true polar air never gets a look in after about midweek.

The trouble is once you get locked into a southwesterly type (including the cyclonic/anticyclonic mix showing in the models) it seems to take a while to shake it off. We are in an incredibly long run of Decembers without any prolonged 'classic' winter weather.

While some years lock in the southwesterly well into January, there are thankfully some exceptions. 1984 into 1985 and 1986 into 1987 flipped at the end of December and early in the new year respectively. More recently 2016 into 2017 and 2018 into 2019 flipped to something more anticyclonic and seasonal with frosts, though not notably cold, early in January.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Summer8906

[HellItsHot]

I love the model discussion I really do, but if in October someone said we’re getting varying levels of miserable crap for the next 6ish months they’d be more accurate than most of the contributors. 

[Guest]

I'd expect wet, cool than milder weather as the HP sets up over and around the UK later in Dec.

Then a rinse and repeat of Nov and Dec, so a cool northerly or two followed by Icelandic lows spawning very wet weather for Jan and Feb.

That's the pattern. The forecasters can discuss the noise around it all, but it will come to nothing, I guess one in ten years something more interesting might happen.

[Nick L]

Couple of things, can we keep winter discussion to the winter thread please?

Also, this is not the thread for berating the quality of posts in the model thread. If you think they're against forum rules, report it. If you think the quality of posting is poor, you're very welcome to go in there and make your own contributions. Moaning in here about the model thread isn't acceptable.

[Summer8906]

On 04/12/2021 at 20:21, HellItsHot said:

I love the model discussion I really do, but if in October someone said we’re getting varying levels of miserable crap for the next 6ish months they’d be more accurate than most of the contributors. 

6 months is a bit pessimistic, remember that 6 months after October is April. (Sorry, I'll stop there, just seen Nick L's post above - after I made this post). This is not meant to be a model-knocking post BTW, just arguing against the gloomy months extending as far into the future as April, perhaps the sunniest (as % of theoretical maximum), driest and most anticyclonic month these days.

Edited December 7, 2021 by Summer8906

[Guest]

Awesome model output at the morning. No severe cold or lowland snow looks even remotely possible. With the driest November on record the golf courses are in unusually great condition. Looking forward to playing this weekend. Just another 10-12wks and temps should start making a recovery. 

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

6 months is a bit pessimistic, remember that 6 months after October is April. (Sorry, I'll stop there, just seen Nick L's post above - after I made this post). This is not meant to be a model-knocking post BTW, just arguing against the gloomy months extending as far into the future as April, perhaps the sunniest (as % of theoretical maximum), driest and most anticyclonic month these days.

Depends where you are I guess, with the exception of last April & May by early April we’ve usually well and truly turned the corner down here, further north that will take longer I guess. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Awesome model output at the morning. No severe cold or lowland snow looks even remotely possible. With the driest November on record the golf courses are in unusually great condition. Looking forward to playing this weekend. Just another 10-12wks and temps should start making a recovery. 

eh? lets have snow and cold reserved for us north of M4 bods then! favourite setup of mine was common in 90's with lots of snow here, with southern areas above 10 degrees

[MattStoke]

On 07/12/2021 at 21:47, Alderc said:

Awesome model output at the morning. No severe cold or lowland snow looks even remotely possible. With the driest November on record the golf courses are in unusually great condition. Looking forward to playing this weekend. Just another 10-12wks and temps should start making a recovery. 

Awesome news for insomniacs. 

[MattStoke]

On 07/12/2021 at 21:54, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

eh? lets have snow and cold reserved for us north of M4 bods then! favourite setup of mine was common in 90's with lots of snow here, with southern areas above 10 degrees

'Battleground' snow events?

Exactly why I got into weather watching. Got fed up with the mild borefest of most London winters (where I grew up) whilst areas further north got plastered with snow, and wanted to find out why almost every forecast of snow for the capital ended in rain.

Edited December 8, 2021 by MattStoke

[HellItsHot]

On 05/12/2021 at 09:29, Nick L said:

Couple of things, can we keep winter discussion to the winter thread please?

Also, this is not the thread for berating the quality of posts in the model thread. If you think they're against forum rules, report it. If you think the quality of posting is poor, you're very welcome to go in there and make your own contributions. Moaning in here about the model thread isn't acceptable.

I wasn’t particularly ‘moaning’ about the model thread, I was just trying to highlight the difference between what is frequently modelled( lots of extremes of hot in summer and freezing cold/snow in winter) and the weather we mostly get(average). 
 

As I’ve said before, I think we’re very lucky to live in a climate as benign as the one we have in the UK, even if it is boring from a weather enthusiast’s point of view. 

[SP1986]

One of the interesting things I find, given that it's difficult to find any positives during prolonged wet, cool weather, is that in my own back yard, foehn effects might come into play if the wind takes on a southwesterly direction. Whilst it's unfortunate that there's no snow this December here, a foehn can be just as interesting as it can lead to large temperature differences in short distances. I recall one year when it was 14C here and just 7C in Manchester (circa 40 miles) due to a foehn setup. 

[reef]

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