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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS 12z not much to write home about 3 or 4 pleasant days followed by maybe two very warm ones Sun/Mon with temps back down to average or below by Wednesday as high pressure splits perfectly to let a trough target the UK. 
     

    GEM, ICON & UKMO all look much steadier at T144! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    An Alaskan plume anyone?   h850t850eu.png 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, only when I'm at home!
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

    What long settled spell…??, 🙃

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    What a sight the GEM is this evening! Blasting heat and severe thunderstorms, then a reload of high pressure right at the end. UKMO is quite a change from yesterdays 12z however, not necessarily bad though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    7 minutes ago, slater said:

    What long settled spell…??, 🙃

    What ate you basing that on?

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    The 12z GFS looks improbable to me, and shouldnt be anything to be concerned about unless its still being shown across the board by the weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS 12z not much to write home about 3 or 4 pleasant days followed by maybe two very warm ones Sun/Mon with temps back down to average or below by Wednesday as high pressure splits perfectly to let a trough target the UK. 
     

    GEM, ICON & UKMO all look much steadier at T144! 

    3 good models get an almost dismissive sentence.

    1 bad model gets an extended paragraph 🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

    3 good models get an almost dismissive sentence.

    1 bad model gets an extended paragraph 🙄

    Actually the others have different solutions which I’ve just posted about - also can you show the proof that GFS is a bad model? I believe still verifies ahead of GEM & ICON and close to UKMO so I really should be the one using the rolling eye emoji at your daft and incorrect post 🙄🙄🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 12Z at T+330 looks more than okay, to me . . . But, then I do prefer my 'heatwaves' when they're interspersed with bouts of thundery rain: ⚡

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I guess that's why 1975 and 1997 were my favourite summers? Each to there own?😁

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Actually the others have different solutions which I’ve just posted about - also can you show the proof that GFS is a bad model? I believe still verifies ahead of GEM & ICON and close to UKMO so I really should be the one using the rolling eye emoji at your daft and incorrect post 🙄🙄🙄

    I was talking about 3 good outcomes versus one bad outcome, not model performance as a whole. You have since done a more positive expansive post which is welcomed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    16 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

    I was talking about 3 good outcomes versus one bad outcome, not model performance as a whole. You have since done a more positive expansive post which is welcomed.

    Sorry I’m a bit tired, been queuing at Peppa Pig World all day to get on Daddy Pigs Car ride etc….

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Notable that both the GFS and GEM bring the start of the breakdown forwards a day.

    image.thumb.png.09649ae6433673131aa510628648f2b1.png

    image.thumb.png.abed33f4cb4842fef1100c6a0199ba25.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Notable that both the GFS and GEM bring the start of the breakdown forwards a day.

    image.thumb.png.09649ae6433673131aa510628648f2b1.png

    image.thumb.png.abed33f4cb4842fef1100c6a0199ba25.png

    Yes but the dynamics are very different, GEM remains hot, humid and very thundery Weds-Fri and cooler conditions never really get in, GFS just becomes cold and wet in places by Wednesday with Atlantic sourced air.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    56 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Actually the others have different solutions which I’ve just posted about - also can you show the proof that GFS is a bad model? I believe still verifies ahead of GEM & ICON and close to UKMO so I really should be the one using the rolling eye emoji at your daft and incorrect post 🙄🙄🙄

    IMO, much of the GFS's 'bad name' came from the hubris of one arrogant poster/cult hero?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The GFS Ops run again was on the pessimistic side of its ensembles (although does warm back up), the GEM Ops run very much on the optimistic side, both means are very similar out to the 22/23rd.

    1414016647_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n26.thumb.jpeg.786131fe03289243a9e241de2f9394b5.jpeg

    944436068_gem-bournemouth-gb-505n3.thumb.jpeg.de252ec99dc70f47e971ccaa508c41a3.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well, we are now on the cusp of the best spell this July so far and by far!...and for the majority hoping for longevity into late July and beyond from reloads!, the GEFS 12z has some potential for sure! ☀️😉

    F0D00281-F9DA-4261-AA64-3D1AB4177E31.thumb.png.e8b37845a1353d3af13e8480cbef489b.png3AC76AD5-5E17-4339-BBD9-71603D5FEE63.thumb.png.761535c50bff8d7948a470d6e3087331.png06E83A49-6553-4619-AF64-747E3D294480.thumb.png.9975da1ce5f194c7e7e5cae9534c519a.pngA9B293D1-55C7-4A2B-A5C9-4A3601256CEE.thumb.png.4ad0ab3be0ef5ce5f50818f2330014f8.png90FEA87E-F620-4803-8852-5E2FE406856C.thumb.png.d26a390be623944a97f1a6e49c7ac5fc.png2AB87B77-1AF8-4177-81A2-05FCFF59E4B4.thumb.png.4b5a35330d09cbd9d4f390d145d91c9c.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Stunning EC out to day 8 ...

    That will do for now...

    image.thumb.png.44bf460e774c2696b51ae95a57bc6a5f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The ECM and UKMO would bring a cold front southwards later on Sunday and into early next week. So likely a reintroduction of cloud into eastern parts in general and a drop in temperatures (Likely to hit the high twenties in places prior to this). It still looks settled and of course with low pressure to the south west then drawing a hotter flow is possible from the south. Though the changes are a little frustrating in this part of the world as obviously seeing high pressure drift east of the U.K. removes the threat of low cloud from the north/north east. Though I don’t think either of these would be too bad.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Stunning EC out to day 8 ...

    That will do for now...

    image.thumb.png.44bf460e774c2696b51ae95a57bc6a5f.png

    AEDD4996-05BB-4370-9A8E-C1F6B394C898.thumb.jpeg.0352ac5641d43705784a61fade9e8d18.jpeg0CB44846-B2AA-4FBC-9FF5-8A13BCFBA1E5.thumb.jpeg.4d4ba698ec1cca5d8280b6b677df2db3.jpeg

    Its another one that looks good on the SLP chart there but in reality isn’t great. All of this too far away to worry about in great detail now though! Weekend looks great!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Only a weak upper cold front on the ECM 12z Sun-Mon so intermittent cloud, but yes, a fresher breeze.

    Via shift west in the high pressure centre, it and UKMO have traded some heat for longevity of the fine spell, which is in stark contrast to GFS with its sudden interest in a more rapid breakdown from the southwest. The 12z is one of its classic 'lever it out' solutions - usually (...but not always) the low splits away southeast instead, if we go down that sort of route to begin with.

    All speculation at this stage. Arguably needless given those latest ECM and UKMO runs.

     

    p.s. I've been looking at ECM output on wxcharts for a few months now and have concluded that the model is little better than GFS, baring similar tendencies to overdue cloud amounts and shower development while suppressing daytime temperatures too far as well.

    Edited by Singularity
    ECM note
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    I take the ecm with open arms!!in reality we knew yesterdays ecm was too good to be true anyway!!i will take mid twenties and sunshine all day!!!one thing missing this summer is a few days of extreme heat!!still got august to go but times running out!!!

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