model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[NApplewhite]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This morning's GFS 00Z operational run is hardly conducive to heat & sunshine: 

    

    

    

GEM is a nightmare 

Edited July 27, 2021 by NApplewhite

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean looks mostly unsettled and rather cool but I expect there would be some transient ridging and eventually the main trough tends to push further north by northwest with the south seeing increasing Azores high / ridge influence...so probably more of a north / south split longer term towards mid august...broad brushstrokes obviously! ? ⛈  

Edited July 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

There’s some absolute tosh on offer this morning, looks like the full force of a modern August is incoming. 
 

[mushymanrob]

20 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Update - rain sweeping across the UK for the next 4 days! 

 

showers, mainly..

[mb018538]

Looks like we’re getting some agreement on next week. Early part of the week probably not too bad - cool with a few light showers around…..before the real trouble arrives towards the middle of the week. Could be quite a deep low swinging across the UK. All 3 models show it in different forms, so we will have to keep an eye on that as it develops.

[Timmytour]

40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like we’re getting some agreement on next week. Early part of the week probably not too bad - cool with a few light showers around…..before the real trouble arrives towards the middle of the week. Could be quite a deep low swinging across the UK. All 3 models show it in different forms, so we will have to keep an eye on that as it develops.

I believe the proper Netweather term for the bit I've highlighted in bold is "nae bad"

Mind you, I've not seen it used much of late which is probably a fair indication of where the model output has been heading these past few days!

[johnholmes]

The 500 mb anomaly charts as I see them and the probable weather they suggest

Tuesday 27 July

Ec has a less marked trough to the ne than 24 hours ago, it has the trough now w of the uk coming out of the main centre over ne Canada. A closed high w of the azores but no signal for ridging in the contours

Noaa shows a closed upper low off nw coast of Norway, and like the previous 2 day outputs has a ‘lone’ contour extending into Greenland as a ridge, otherwise a general w’ly from the main trough and across the s’ern part of the uk into the trough from that mentioned off nw Norway. It again shows an upper closed ridge over and west of the azores.

All the above suggests, the heat is not returning in the 6-10 or 8-14 time scale. Rather unsettled for most with an upper w’ly flow as a mean and may well oscillate between n of and s of west from day to day. The best of any drier and sunnier slightly warmer slots probably in the sw and the more changeable for the nw possibly ne.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I believe the proper Netweather term for the bit I've highlighted in bold is "nae bad"

Mind you, I've not seen it used much of late which is probably a fair indication of where the model output has been heading these past few days!

Well, cool with showers is bad in my book….but as to not upset the apple cart I’ve said that it’ll be alright

[kold weather]

The next 10 days looks very LP dominated it has to be said, can't rule out the odd transient ridge which may make things more settled for a day or two but broadly wet and cool seems to be the way forward at the moment. 

At least the rest of the country can join in with the fun the SE has had the majority of this summer so far! Ironically this pattern probably isn't going to be *that* wet for the SE.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

There’s some absolute tosh on offer this morning, looks like the full force of a modern August is incoming. 
 

Chris I think you pointed out to me last year regarding the heat in Suadi last year...just checked and its currently 51C around Basrah! Wow thats intense.

Just a little follow on from last night's EC46,pressure looks to rise towards the middle of the month,and the signs currently are it becomes more influential out towards months end...hopefully something a little more optimistic next month....(hopefully)

Edited July 27, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[JayAlmeida]

Well looking at all of the model output this morning I think the weather is pretty much nailed on until the 5th/6th now and its not looking good

A nasty little cut-off low swirling from now until this weekend with a brief reprieve until the middle part of next week when a proper trough develops and...well...you know the rest.

Gona have little break from these charts now as mid month seems to be the target for project summer to resume. By that logic any positive changes won't be in ECM/GEM range until early next week and the GFS will just give us four different scenarios a day in the extended range until then.

Make the most of any sun we manage to get for the next 10 days like Knight Solaire.

Edited July 27, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[ChannelThunder]

Well, my ounce of positivity from last night has been well and truly crushed by this morning's runs! It seems May and late June's trough patterns are going to be back and in force!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational indicates we could eventually catch a break from the unsettled weather with higher pressure returning bringing a spell of predominantly fine and warmer conditions, especially further s / se....

 

 

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Eventually it warms up again towards that 2nd week of the new month..thats the plan,I hope its an on the money one.

[Frosty.]

I’ve said this so many times recently but the longer term GEFS mean does improve, the 6z is probably the best to my untrained eyes in the last few days and it could well be those tentative signals from the pros for a marked change to high pressure and above average temperatures from around mid august might be gaining strength?...  !
 

 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I’ve said this so many times recently but the longer term GEFS mean does improve, the 6z is probably the best to my untrained eyes in the last few days and it could well be those tentative signals from the pros for a marked change to high pressure and above average temperatures from around mid august might be gaining strength?...  !
 

 

But at least, unlike 99% of wintertime snow 'prospects', it's actually there!

[NApplewhite]

10 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

This morning's GFS 00Z operational run is hardly conducive to heat & sunshine: 

    

    

    

 5 day forecast is dreadful. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

32 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Early days but i may eat my words i am a silly girl!. Signs of an Azores ridge on the way.  Will monitor the GFS to see if it verifies as its still in FL. 

Wow...thats got to be the biggest backtrack since the met office finally backed down from that failed winter a few years ago!

In weather its usually unwise to write of several weeks,for the very reason you state above.

[mb018538]

Those charts are 13+ days away, and haven’t really appeared anywhere else yet. At that range they are about as good as an ensemble member in isolation, even if it’s higher res. ECM ens at that timeframe are the polar opposite today, so wouldn’t get your hopes up just yet!

[Mike Poole]

Think I’m going to bow out for a while, folks, not really due to the weather model prospects, which are largely towards average summer fayre rather than anything cataclysmal, although ECM T240 looks grim:

Think summer will pick up going further into August.

Just tired of posting, see you in the run up to winter…we will see…

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Tonight's GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles are hardly cold?

    

Quite a few days' 'below average' conditions, I suppose . . . but, hey, things do have to be below average half of the time?

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Tonight's GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles are hardly cold?

    

Quite a few days' 'below average' conditions, I suppose . . . but, hey, things do have to be below average half of the time?

Hmm think it depends on the scale, the ensembles with the mean in are clearly below average and comfortably so for the entire run, only a couple silly outliers drag the mean up towards the very end. It’s an extremely poor outlook don’t why we have to dress it up. 
 

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmm think it depends on the scale, the ensembles with the mean in are clearly below average and comfortably so for the entire run, only a couple silly outliers drag the mean up towards the very end. It’s an extremely poor outlook don’t why we have to dress it up. 
 

Just a standard modern August. No idea why they have got so bad. Probably followed by another good September!

[ANYWEATHER]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just a standard modern August. No idea why they have got so bad. Probably followed by another good September!

Can I ask please what you mean by "Modern August" ?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Can I ask please what you mean by "Modern August" ?

Dull and autumnal, sunshine hours here in August have reduced massively in the last 15yrs, I can’t remember but it’s something like 15% down on the 61-90 & 71-00 averages.