model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Pretty decent for next Saturday 

For all the talk at the moment of breakdowns, as the Atlantic low lifts out there appear to be more of a risk of cooler and cloudier conditions moving in from the north east as we end up with the Azores high extending into Scandinavia. This looks okay for most though I would rather see any low develop towards Iberia to allow winds to be south of east. A real good chance that conditions will settle down for all once the low clears by midweek.

[Frosty.]

Omg..just look at the Ukmo 12h T+144 hours, just look at it and cry with joy..if you’re a weather enthusiast who loves summery weather..you Shirley will..who’s Shirley??..  !! ? 

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

 

Bye bye to the no 30c by next weekend on tonight’s UKMO run….could be more like 33-35c with those upper temps!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Better looking 12z than the 6z which went downhill.  12z gets the heat back in and its more widespread. 

[Methuselah]

Not three bad at T+360 . . . Could this be it?       

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not three bad at T+360 . . . Could this be it?       

Quite probably the longer term trend. High pressure seeks to ridge to the NE but the trough to the north tilts it back westward in time. Still we could see a fairly lengthy very warm settled spell in the peak of the summer. Far prefer seeing such an outlook now than in a months time, too late by then- deep summer feeling fades fast second half August, second half July optimum time for a UK high. 

Edited July 11, 2021 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

Holy carp... ..for sure, the Gem 12z is a gem.. ...summers coming.. ...footballs coming home.. ..there’s a lot going on init!  

[sheikhy]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Sept has low slp anom on ec seasonal ……and oct/nov has the high anom centred west of the U.K. ….

Now that is interesting!!warm hot end to summer and then dry and cool/cold october november with some  crisp frosty mornings!!

[sheikhy]

Absolutely brilliant gfs and ukmo 12z!!!heatwave conditions especially on ukmo!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Now that is interesting!!warm hot end to summer and then dry and cool/cold october november with some  crisp frosty mornings!!

What a Legend mate...heres us lot struggling to get the details for the next 7 days,and you bring us an end of Summer and a how the Autumn starts forecast! Love it shaky.

Guess what the 12z mean says....Hell yes..im gerrin excited....can I tell my family about it..

[sheikhy]

Id love for the weather to go from sunny dry warm in the next 2 months straight to cold dry and frosty october onward!!!signs are looking good so far buddy!!!

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Id love for the weather to go from sunny dry warm in the next 2 months straight to cold dry and frosty october onward!!!signs are looking good so far buddy!!!

1995 sort of did it though it was a warm dry October rather than frosty. Atlantic stirred in September then went back to sleep.

[Frosty.]

I fink I’m gonna cry with joy, I’ve just looked at some GEFS 12z mean charts..exquise me, I’m all emotional...just imagine how I will be if England win tonight??..now all we need is Flash Gordon and it’s a win win situatuation!!!!!!!!!!!!...  !  

Edited July 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

ECM 12z sweeps everything away at day 9-10….but who cares about that. Miles away and will change. Great before that though.

Come on England !!

[stodge]

Evening all

As a way of avoiding the football, I thought I'd take a look at the medium to longer term charts tonight from the 12Z as one or two people seem confident of a hot spell.

So, the T+240s from ECM, GFS Control, GEM, JMA and GFS OP

ECM far from inspiring to be honest but the others aren't too bad. The question remains we can get a lobe of HP to detach and move ENE to Scandinavia thereby allowing a potentially hot flow air from the SE up over NW Europe. All the models bar ECM keep a shallow trough over Europe which doesn't work for us in terms of advecting the heat. 

Both GFS OP and Control look the best in terms of providing settled and dry conditions for most of the British Isles while others keep the trough much closer to southern Britain and ECM has gone its own way.

Plenty of options on the table at the range as you would expect and there's not a clear trend that I can see.

[Frosty.]

There’s a lot too like about the ECM 12z operational apart from the last frame...but I really hope the high will stick around! ...Arnie concurs!...    

Edited July 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z ensembles :       

[Frosty.]

Wot a cracking ECM 12z ensemble mean...shame there’s nobody here too seee it?! 0-1 ...come on England..this could be a game of two halves.. ! ️
 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

From what I can see from gfs and ecm the general trend from the models is for pressure to build this coming week from the Azores but as we near the ten day time frame pressure falls. Despite high pressure building later this week and 850s hPa show a warm humid airmass  the track of air flowing around the high is not conducive to heat and sunshine....Western areas favour the best summer like weather...☺

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

Wot a cracking ECM 12z ensemble mean...shame there’s nobody here too seee it?! 0-1 ...come on England..this could be a game of two halves.. ! ️
 

 

It's a good mean mate for sure,and the op was a bit of an outlier towards the end of the run..half way there folks...big effort required...then we celebrate

[Scorcher]

48 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

As a way of avoiding the football, I thought I'd take a look at the medium to longer term charts tonight from the 12Z as one or two people seem confident of a hot spell.

So, the T+240s from ECM, GFS Control, GEM, JMA and GFS OP

ECM far from inspiring to be honest but the others aren't too bad.

Am I looking at the same run as you? Looks an absolute belter to me- what more could we expect?

Only issue is right at the very end of the run but highly unlikely that scenario will verify anyway.

[Alexis]

I'd just take a 25C. Can't remember it ever being so late for it to be reached here.

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I'd just take a 25C. Can't remember it ever being so late for it to be reached here.

Manchester Airport has already reached 25C, as has Rostherne near the airport.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Am I looking at the same run as you? Looks an absolute belter to me- what more could we expect?

Only issue is right at the very end of the run but highly unlikely that scenario will verify anyway.

He must be an Italy fan mate...just joking stodge.

[Penrith Snow]

5 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

What a Legend mate...heres us lot struggling to get the details for the next 7 days,and you bring us an end of Summer and a how the Autumn starts forecast! Love it shaky.

Guess what the 12z mean says....Hell yes..im gerrin excited....can I tell my family about it..

What a lovely Cat, want to take him home.