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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Best not to post my anomaly update in here as it will only increase the gloom!

    Oh go on John, please! 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    14 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    But why are the background drivers less clear in summer? They are the same ones apart from the strat influence.. 

    Ive not noticed any different in the anomaly accuracy .. 

     

    Talking of which, the latest arent an exact match for yesterdays, but still have a strong greenland high and that is not good news for summer

    Sod the rest of summer, I'm gonna start getting excited for winter! 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Typical that the weather starts to deteriorate just as the kids break up from school and need entertaining.

    Typical but predictable sadly!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset

    Hey guys just wanted to ask a quick question. Could the band of heavy rain moving up from the South West produce thunderstorms for Somerset? I have some forecasts saying a 10% chance of thunderstorms with others giving us a whole day of the stuff.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Just now, Liam Burge said:

    Hey guys just wanted to ask a quick question. Could the band of heavy rain moving up from the South West produce thunderstorms for Somerset? I have some forecasts saying a 10% chance of thunderstorms with others giving us a whole day of the stuff.

    Certainly could but still no model agreement yet, if you remind me, I'll give you my chance next run in percentage. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Certainly could but still no model agreement yet, if you remind me, I'll give you my chance next run in percentage. 

    Models still flipping flopping about but currently with just 400/500 j/kg of CAPE it looks more like the infamous (un)thundery rain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    29 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    It may not be too far into August before the Azores high / ridge starts to wax again according to the GEFS 0z?..so I wouldn’t write august off on July 22nd! 🤔 😉 😛 ☀️ 
    C698D467-EC77-4D35-B20E-A9675245F41E.thumb.png.41c84bcb0372a09de8cd906253393a20.png237D8491-4CD3-40EF-B450-A6E2DA112EC8.thumb.png.7aa838ff59775b12f30e62b9610a644c.pngD040D712-706F-4411-B44C-A46F8C0467BD.thumb.png.59a83dbb3f27db67cae48d62d2758542.png21E3462B-83AE-42D1-A02E-8D931A7E4419.thumb.png.efeebe89a1052662d494ffc00183a33f.png1D4569D7-8EFB-45D2-ABB5-5ADC3686B7C8.thumb.png.8e280c856938f9570294a55575cc8dd2.png0412B18C-E34B-4CCD-80EE-ED36A4FE6D2F.thumb.png.accf7ca92365ef6a198b0df9cddd0d78.png34FB004B-CB34-4AF8-8C25-3702B9956DFC.thumb.png.4c0d4af3d7a3c0dbeb4c1333a5da366a.png36C8ECB2-C22D-4A19-B3A3-B25ABC0C42F3.thumb.png.3677da93e0a2fd9002ecf6b260a26cf8.pngDFF3F037-4B44-4165-9EE8-8B3E5F5D47A7.thumb.png.2615bba64f9a696ff287ea207e12af33.png

     

    The fact that you've had to cherry pick a few isolated ensemble members at T+384 over 2 weeks away tells you all you need to know about the output at the moment...!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    28 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Typical that the weather starts to deteriorate just as the kids break up from school and need entertaining.

    Typical but predictable sadly!

    Kids have been off for three weeks over here. Absolutely glorious July for them.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    13 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

    A big reason for less accuracy is the lack of strat polar vortex in the summer. This is replaced by weak negative u winds in mid  strat which turn positive the lower that one descends. Strong positive strat u winds in winter give a very reliable indicator of trop conditions at medium range. Probably the most reliable winter teleconnection.

    Anyway, is Svalbard on a red or Amber list, because looking at the ECM 850’s at day 10 this could be a lovely spot for a warm holiday!

    Yep, thats fair enough, however i have not noticed any poorer performances from the Anomalies over the Summer period.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    The fact that you've had to cherry pick a few isolated ensemble members at T+384 

    I made a valid point that it may not be too far into august before the Azores high / ridge starts to wax again, the mean shows signs of improving from around 7th august and sometimes longer term signals correctly sniff out a pattern change! 😉 😛 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I made a valid point that it may not be too far into august before the Azores high / ridge starts to wax again, the mean shows signs of improving from around 7th august and sometimes longer term signals correctly sniff out a pattern change! 😉 😛 

    That may be true - but a very small group of ensemble members at T+384 doesn't constitute a signal. It's just scatter and noise at that range, you need a significant chunk of ensemble runs to show the same thing day after day for a signal. I mean even in the depths of winter if it's a raging zonal pattern you still get the odd ensemble member at 2 weeks away showing something really cold. Doesn't mean it's going to happen though! 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For sure there are some better hints / signs from the longer term GEFS 6z....at least across southern u k..for sure!! 🤔 😉.....I see no problem looking at early august for signs of hope?... 😱 ...after all, the pros look up to 4 weeks ahead don’t they?...hmmmm..anyway, p29 would suit me sir!! 😉 

    BC0E3B17-EBFD-41BC-81F9-693C515098D6.thumb.png.862465c2d4172587aab36d895734c13e.pngCCB514C4-6391-4E96-B68F-9BF99AB1EAA0.thumb.png.326eef726f16a8bdbcd3a3a5c3ed4187.png9E5D51B2-50F5-48BC-8ADA-F45C6A9B9BC2.thumb.png.1c04c23f0cd69f44c4dd875f2d91f336.pngCDC5B2C9-74D6-455D-8638-4841E6B16F92.thumb.png.097a3773c491df4ddde4d5c19d80993b.pngF9433C35-20CB-44ED-92C1-8EF3CB30B73C.thumb.png.f7a18d6c443458a30a849751465f178c.pngA7604267-0F50-4760-8668-298019452B97.thumb.png.ee78df3606e75160cbafd44ffbe3b20e.pngA71B993A-B5E1-4451-83B6-64771CE38439.thumb.png.e5d84f53a2a046d76bc385993e768c8c.pngB4EAAC57-2F6D-4567-AFB1-A8F007DB9911.thumb.png.799f0aa633acee1e8fdbc9e33a792e51.png2F7BEC3F-6411-44DE-9260-E252128C8DBB.thumb.png.88c560a22fba48220e96e8a287a525be.png2BAC398F-CDD7-4367-B0F6-51B3E1A935DC.thumb.png.2e5935b495aa9feeeaf543e65ffab21c.pngABC88FB9-220A-4403-B0C4-751518165981.thumb.jpeg.dd6d0af99d298f570180083f02ca73d3.jpeg

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    @Liam Burge

    I have had a look at the latest update

    GEM:

    839641253_gemeuw-2-36(1).thumb.png.3029ed21f27e7000981e673c5004354f.png1908250715_gemeuw-2-42(2).thumb.png.9700434c47cb072bb7c6ba2001771e86.png304690258_gemeuw-2-48(3).thumb.png.241940b072d9ac8daeef62937a4ca952.png1796598471_gemeuw-11-42(2).thumb.png.ab94ec2913f8345f0060be99df236420.png1984525474_gemeuw-11-48(1).thumb.png.991db7d93dc056562f07f2b79ef9c324.pnggemeuw-11-54.thumb.png.41f86e58faa1f7e7ee91847e089c3745.pnggemeuw-11-60.thumb.png.70c25de3d9226bdc42442b6254aeda24.png995930904_gemeuw-11-66(1).thumb.png.447a1b1aca63b19020e687f859783bd5.png

    GEM brings the rain across with some CAPE embedded in it which gives you that dreadful occasional thundery rain because of how low it is with a chance of a storm embedded in it however, this may be getting your hopes up but 2013,2015,2017,2019 have all had events like this perhaps with a bit more CAPE and have resulted in widespread storms. 

    Chance for a proper storm : 15%

    Later on : 25%

    GFS

    232120445_ukprec-2021-07-22T125436_443.thumb.png.b5bfb631d86aca4c3622fcb76e70f0ed.png310181138_ukprec-2021-07-22T125439_028.thumb.png.44ed64f4028ac23981a2787c8dfa8825.png1553316172_ukprec-2021-07-22T125443_567.thumb.png.11b8d12f8d614820e81f382ff3481a0e.png318235742_ukprec-2021-07-22T125447_141.thumb.png.bf56cc7d3588703595950ce6f5aa216d.png524485994_ukprec-2021-07-22T125450_949.thumb.png.dea0bdfe14695151b69c66dc42308def.png1530854131_ukprec-2021-07-22T125455_379.thumb.png.0938b9cc7cfc6bcc68f0dc90ea4379bc.png

    1684350205_ukcapeli(60).thumb.png.a782d01abb67832d6d109f3d7151acb7.png779197308_ukcapeli(61).thumb.png.1f13fe53e52ac6cf9199c04f1a03d891.png1240686897_ukcapeli(62).thumb.png.7fe363129a99c6dfd75f3a82f07b93b6.png948075600_ukcapeli(63).thumb.png.7d825127e3c2666d3b5d30ede19cd38f.png1886035836_ukcapeli(64).thumb.png.b91c1239a37996745871cd6d49d3e1fc.png1886035836_ukcapeli(64).thumb.png.b91c1239a37996745871cd6d49d3e1fc.png71823714_ukcapeli(65).thumb.png.9a942827d5bf811150cfda7b0535ebfd.png

    The GFS brings a high enough CAPE for am elevated storm within an MCS to form therefore perhaps holding strong even when the CAPE significantly lowers throughout the night. 

    GFS chance : 35%

    Icon chance : 5%

    Absolutely nothing there really except a light patch which is heading your way but all CAPE stays on land before bringing storms just to the South East. 

    WRF Chance : 45% but that always over-egg's chances anyway. 

    I would say overall a 20-25% chance. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
    42 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    @Liam Burge

    I have had a look at the latest update

    GEM:

    839641253_gemeuw-2-36(1).thumb.png.3029ed21f27e7000981e673c5004354f.png1908250715_gemeuw-2-42(2).thumb.png.9700434c47cb072bb7c6ba2001771e86.png304690258_gemeuw-2-48(3).thumb.png.241940b072d9ac8daeef62937a4ca952.png1796598471_gemeuw-11-42(2).thumb.png.ab94ec2913f8345f0060be99df236420.png1984525474_gemeuw-11-48(1).thumb.png.991db7d93dc056562f07f2b79ef9c324.pnggemeuw-11-54.thumb.png.41f86e58faa1f7e7ee91847e089c3745.pnggemeuw-11-60.thumb.png.70c25de3d9226bdc42442b6254aeda24.png995930904_gemeuw-11-66(1).thumb.png.447a1b1aca63b19020e687f859783bd5.png

    GEM brings the rain across with some CAPE embedded in it which gives you that dreadful occasional thundery rain because of how low it is with a chance of a storm embedded in it however, this may be getting your hopes up but 2013,2015,2017,2019 have all had events like this perhaps with a bit more CAPE and have resulted in widespread storms. 

    Chance for a proper storm : 15%

    Later on : 25%

    GFS

    232120445_ukprec-2021-07-22T125436_443.thumb.png.b5bfb631d86aca4c3622fcb76e70f0ed.png310181138_ukprec-2021-07-22T125439_028.thumb.png.44ed64f4028ac23981a2787c8dfa8825.png1553316172_ukprec-2021-07-22T125443_567.thumb.png.11b8d12f8d614820e81f382ff3481a0e.png318235742_ukprec-2021-07-22T125447_141.thumb.png.bf56cc7d3588703595950ce6f5aa216d.png524485994_ukprec-2021-07-22T125450_949.thumb.png.dea0bdfe14695151b69c66dc42308def.png1530854131_ukprec-2021-07-22T125455_379.thumb.png.0938b9cc7cfc6bcc68f0dc90ea4379bc.png

    1684350205_ukcapeli(60).thumb.png.a782d01abb67832d6d109f3d7151acb7.png779197308_ukcapeli(61).thumb.png.1f13fe53e52ac6cf9199c04f1a03d891.png1240686897_ukcapeli(62).thumb.png.7fe363129a99c6dfd75f3a82f07b93b6.png948075600_ukcapeli(63).thumb.png.7d825127e3c2666d3b5d30ede19cd38f.png1886035836_ukcapeli(64).thumb.png.b91c1239a37996745871cd6d49d3e1fc.png1886035836_ukcapeli(64).thumb.png.b91c1239a37996745871cd6d49d3e1fc.png71823714_ukcapeli(65).thumb.png.9a942827d5bf811150cfda7b0535ebfd.png

    The GFS brings a high enough CAPE for am elevated storm within an MCS to form therefore perhaps holding strong even when the CAPE significantly lowers throughout the night. 

    GFS chance : 35%

    Icon chance : 5%

    Absolutely nothing there really except a light patch which is heading your way but all CAPE stays on land before bringing storms just to the South East. 

    WRF Chance : 45% but that always over-egg's chances anyway. 

    I would say overall a 20-25% chance. 

     

     

     

    Thank you for this! I always feel like Icon underdoes these types of events (could just be my personal opinion though). I have a 57% chance of thunderstorms from Netweather at around 4pm on Saturday. The MetOffice is just forecasting heavy rain throughout some of Saturday (especially in the morning) but no thunder currently, Accuweather is giving me a 20% chance of Thunderstorms on Saturday also. 

    The BBC is saying that I have a chance of seeing thunder all throughout the day (although that is highly unlikey and I would like to know what runs they are getting this information from). 

    image.thumb.png.83ed571a86c978575532d25d261b8b50.png

     

     

    I thank you again though for taking the time to look into my storm potential. 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    46 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    @Liam Burge

    I have had a look at the latest update

    GEM:

    839641253_gemeuw-2-36(1).thumb.png.3029ed21f27e7000981e673c5004354f.png1908250715_gemeuw-2-42(2).thumb.png.9700434c47cb072bb7c6ba2001771e86.png304690258_gemeuw-2-48(3).thumb.png.241940b072d9ac8daeef62937a4ca952.png1796598471_gemeuw-11-42(2).thumb.png.ab94ec2913f8345f0060be99df236420.png1984525474_gemeuw-11-48(1).thumb.png.991db7d93dc056562f07f2b79ef9c324.pnggemeuw-11-54.thumb.png.41f86e58faa1f7e7ee91847e089c3745.pnggemeuw-11-60.thumb.png.70c25de3d9226bdc42442b6254aeda24.png995930904_gemeuw-11-66(1).thumb.png.447a1b1aca63b19020e687f859783bd5.png

    GEM brings the rain across with some CAPE embedded in it which gives you that dreadful occasional thundery rain because of how low it is with a chance of a storm embedded in it however, this may be getting your hopes up but 2013,2015,2017,2019 have all had events like this perhaps with a bit more CAPE and have resulted in widespread storms. 

    Chance for a proper storm : 15%

    Later on : 25%

    GFS

    232120445_ukprec-2021-07-22T125436_443.thumb.png.b5bfb631d86aca4c3622fcb76e70f0ed.png310181138_ukprec-2021-07-22T125439_028.thumb.png.44ed64f4028ac23981a2787c8dfa8825.png1553316172_ukprec-2021-07-22T125443_567.thumb.png.11b8d12f8d614820e81f382ff3481a0e.png318235742_ukprec-2021-07-22T125447_141.thumb.png.bf56cc7d3588703595950ce6f5aa216d.png524485994_ukprec-2021-07-22T125450_949.thumb.png.dea0bdfe14695151b69c66dc42308def.png1530854131_ukprec-2021-07-22T125455_379.thumb.png.0938b9cc7cfc6bcc68f0dc90ea4379bc.png

    1684350205_ukcapeli(60).thumb.png.a782d01abb67832d6d109f3d7151acb7.png779197308_ukcapeli(61).thumb.png.1f13fe53e52ac6cf9199c04f1a03d891.png1240686897_ukcapeli(62).thumb.png.7fe363129a99c6dfd75f3a82f07b93b6.png948075600_ukcapeli(63).thumb.png.7d825127e3c2666d3b5d30ede19cd38f.png1886035836_ukcapeli(64).thumb.png.b91c1239a37996745871cd6d49d3e1fc.png1886035836_ukcapeli(64).thumb.png.b91c1239a37996745871cd6d49d3e1fc.png71823714_ukcapeli(65).thumb.png.9a942827d5bf811150cfda7b0535ebfd.png

    The GFS brings a high enough CAPE for am elevated storm within an MCS to form therefore perhaps holding strong even when the CAPE significantly lowers throughout the night. 

    GFS chance : 35%

    Icon chance : 5%

    Absolutely nothing there really except a light patch which is heading your way but all CAPE stays on land before bringing storms just to the South East. 

    WRF Chance : 45% but that always over-egg's chances anyway. 

    I would say overall a 20-25% chance. 

     

     

     

    I think as you say for the stuff coming up from the channel, maybe the odd embedded rumble but for 99% it’s a non event. Inland Saturday looks better, surface based storms will develop but the storm drought here will linger.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I think as you say for the stuff coming up from the channel, maybe the odd embedded rumble but for 99% it’s a non event. Inland Saturday looks better, surface based storms will develop but the storm drought here will linger.

    Bournemouth looks like a hot spot for thunderstorm activity on the latest Windy.com run. This is at 3am on Saturday.

    image.thumb.png.c183d26d68d2db8b2fc47ef793b45b40.png

    image.thumb.png.d3a64fe76a3bf1e61aea6ab98e1ba969.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

    Bournemouth looks like a hot spot for thunderstorm activity on the latest Windy.com run. This is at 3am on Saturday.

    image.thumb.png.c183d26d68d2db8b2fc47ef793b45b40.png

    image.thumb.png.d3a64fe76a3bf1e61aea6ab98e1ba969.png

    Although we can forecast percentages for this it is mainly nowcasting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
    2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Firstly some of the weather apps I've just viewed including the met one have my area down for sunny spells and a few showers towards mid next week onwards! Temps around average,so it's surely not the write off some are predicting!

    Secondly many in here have there preference for forecasting tools...for some it's the Hi Res operational runs...for others it's the means and the clusters! Then we have the Noaa charts that some swear by as giving by far the best accuracy!

    Word of caution and to serve as a reminder not only to one's self,but too others also.

    I had a word with Marco P from the met about all of this! And then asked how much more accurate was those Noaa charts to other data! And basically he told me all data at a week out should always be taken with a pinch of salt! Anything around the 2 week mark will nearly always be the model data having a bias to return to the climatology norm!

    Worth baring in mind when some of you write the next 2 or 3 weeks off when you see some bad noaa charts or dodgy means and other long range forecasting tools.

    And for me I'm still thinking a build of pressure towards the 3nd week of August...perhaps more of a traditional N/S split this time!

    But like I say this remains a long way out and will remain fraught with error for better or worse! 

     

    Totally in agreement with this 👏 

    Makes me laugh when people take anomaly charts in the 8+ day range as gospel and then proceed to get highly defensive when you point out that anything beyond 7 days is speculatory at best.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    Totally in agreement with this 👏 

    Makes me laugh when people take anomaly charts in the 8+ day range as gospel and then proceed to get highly defensive when you point out that anything beyond 7 days is speculatory at best.

    Which, of course, no-one has ever claimed?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    Kids have been off for three weeks over here. Absolutely glorious July for them.

    Well said MS.

    We probably share similar weather lots of the time and I can confirm it's been lovely here too.

    It was inevitable there would be a break at some point although I don't think it's looking THAT bad next week,high teens ,low 20s sounds reasonable away from the far North?

    Looking at the 00z data a further detereation looks likely as we head towards next weekend ,perhaps some residual warmth lingering to keep temps respectable before then.

     

     

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
    20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Which, of course, no-one has ever claimed?

    As close to gospel as can be gotten then is that better? 

    And any disagreement with said assertion shall be met with contempt.

    Something like that...

    Edited by JayAlmeida
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