model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Man With Beard]

A classic heatwave week this week, but slim pickings for the turn of the month. Average at best of these clusters, perhaps a ridge nudging from the west but plumes are unlikely

[sheikhy]

Anybody getting the jist that this low in the channel on friday saturday just keeps pushing south and east with every run and eventualy there will be hardly any rain from it at all!!

[Sweatyman]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anybody getting the jist that this low in the channel on friday saturday just keeps pushing south and east with every run and eventualy there will be hardly any rain from it at all!!

I hope so Sheiky!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anybody getting the jist that this low in the channel on friday saturday just keeps pushing south and east with every run and eventualy there will be hardly any rain from it at all!!

I'd rather it came here than go to already battered Germany

[Josh Rubio]

9 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I'd rather it came here than go to already battered Germany

Absolutely. Could do with it cooling down a bit too. The humidity is ridiculous and awful for trying to sleep at night. 

[ribster]

51 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

A classic heatwave week this week, but slim pickings for the turn of the month. Average at best of these clusters, perhaps a ridge nudging from the west but plumes are unlikely

It may be in some places, but certainly not everywhere...

[SummerShower]

51 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anybody getting the jist that this low in the channel on friday saturday just keeps pushing south and east with every run and eventualy there will be hardly any rain from it at all!!

What would that mean for the temperatures here?  If that comes off there would be no change of airmass but we would then be on the cold side of the jet?

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, ribster said:

It may be in some places, but certainly not everywhere...

Some horrors in there, trying not to look beyond this week and just looking to enjoy the current warmth. 

[Eagle Eye]

I think I've finally worked out what is going on here, where that CAPE is a secondary band forms with some cells moving north into the South East and having looked at other charts, the main band may also have some lightning and storms within it as well. 

Heres GFS which has been randomly changing up the timing so that's not-specified yet. 

 

[ribster]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Some horrors in there, trying not to look beyond this week and just looking to enjoy the current warmth. 

I was referring to this week, warm again today at 25c, but certainly not a heatwave here.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Anybody getting the jist that this low in the channel on friday saturday just keeps pushing south and east with every run and eventualy there will be hardly any rain from it at all!!

Thats where the anomalies have been placing it.. they never did support the gfs suggestion of lifting it up over the country and exiting it north but kept it to our near south. The anomalies IMHO always had it South of the UK (close), so to see the ops now forecasting that is no surprise.

[mb018538]

24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Some horrors in there, trying not to look beyond this week and just looking to enjoy the current warmth. 

I would say that is a wise move as I know you enjoy summer...all extended ECM clusters as we head into August are either unsettled or very unsettled. 



The extended Met Office forecast below is going for the opposite of this. Literally have no idea where this forecast is coming from to be honest. I'll keep a keen eye on this and see how it progresses.

Monday 2 Aug - Monday 16 Aug

Into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although there is an increased risk of thunderstorms, especially in the southeast. By mid-August confidence becomes rather low, but with changeable conditions most likely. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.

 

[mb018538]

5 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Yes, looking at the skew-T diagram for Doncaster, although fairly dry through much of the atmosphere, IF it did 'go' then all the way to the TROP

Skew-T Charts

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Looks like that CAPE has been realised. Some very intense cells firing up over the SE.

[johnholmes]

Ironically nothing showing here, not even very small Cu 1

[johnholmes]

The Watnall ascent for 12z today

weather model temps ensemble - europe nottingham/watnall| weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

 

 

[johnholmes]

Just now, johnholmes said:

The Watnall ascent for 12z today

weather model temps ensemble - europe nottingham/watnall| weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

 

 

no idea why it shows weatheronline as it is from the Roger Brugge page at Reading Uni

 

[Sunny76]

Still wondering if london and the South will get a thunderstorm from this current spell of hot weather. Can see clouds bubbling up, after several days of near clear blue skies. Mind you, this happened in June and we ended up with no storms.

[JayAlmeida]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I would say that is a wise move as I know you enjoy summer...all extended ECM clusters as we head into August are either unsettled or very unsettled. 



The extended Met Office forecast below is going for the opposite of this. Literally have no idea where this forecast is coming from to be honest. I'll keep a keen eye on this and see how it progresses.

Monday 2 Aug - Monday 16 Aug

Into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although there is an increased risk of thunderstorms, especially in the southeast. By mid-August confidence becomes rather low, but with changeable conditions most likely. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.

 

Thats a long way off so we'll see. Did these clusters pick up the current HP domination at a similar range a few weeks ago?

[Frosty.]

I was very pleasantly surprised by the Gfs 6z op regarding next week, temperatures well into the mid 20’s c and plenty of fine weather...I would be happy if that was to verify!  

 

[sheikhy]

That channel low for the weekend shrinking by the minute!!ukmo looks humid and warm all the way to 144 hours!!!

[Singularity]

Not sure what to make of next week’s prospects at this time. The models have the look of trying to default toward a La Niña base state with the Azores High tending to focus to our west, but with an active MJO crossing the Pacific at that time it’s hard to see any support for that happening sustainably.

We see evidence of that in the past few GFS runs which have had some attempts to get the ridge back eastward. ECM hasn’t even tried, strangely.

Perhaps the low stage of an otherwise high AAM orbit enables the Nina-like pattern to last 3-5 days. But the models might be dropping AAM too far at this lead time.

Past that, I suspect the usual insufficient response to the next AAM climb is being seen.

A bigger & more sustained AAM drop is probably in the works for mid-August as the MJO departs the Pacific or decays away fully.

[Uncertainty]

1 hour ago, JayAlmeida said:

Thats a long way off so we'll see. Did these clusters pick up the current HP domination at a similar range a few weeks ago?

EC46 was signposting it 4 weeks+ ago

EPS sniffed it at maximum range 

360

A few days later...

But I certainly don’t disagree with your first sentence...

28 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Not sure what to make of next week’s prospects at this time. The models have the look of trying to default toward a La Niña base state with the Azores High tending to focus to our west, but with an active MJO crossing the Pacific at that time it’s hard to see any support for that happening sustainably.

We see evidence of that in the past few GFS runs which have had some attempts to get the ridge back eastward. ECM hasn’t even tried, strangely.

Perhaps the low stage of an otherwise high AAM orbit enables the Nina-like pattern to last 3-5 days. But the models might be dropping AAM too far at this lead time.

Past that, I suspect the usual insufficient response to the next AAM climb is being seen.

A bigger & more sustained AAM drop is probably in the works for mid-August as the MJO departs the Pacific or decays away fully.

This is obviously the MO’s reasoning as they’ve kept the dry/warm early august theme. But very strange to see the EPS having none of it. The clusters are very 21st century August. The EPS kills the tropical signal quickly compared to the GEFS, but the latter ends with this anyway

I did highlight the strong signal from the seasonals for a warm dry August but there’s no sign of it from the extended range mainstream models just yet. Like many in here given the months dreadful recent history I’d take one good week but it doesn’t work like that

 

[Dominic Carey]

Does anyone know how the ECM is looking this evening?

[stodge]

Evening all

Another very warm to hot day in lowland East London - particularly humid late afternoon but fresher now.

Moving on to next week and the cusp of a new month - the T+216 charts tonight may or may not be indicative of where the weather may be heading as the final month of summer beckons.

500 charts of Wednesday July 28th from GEM, JMA, GFS OP and GFS Control (ECM still rolling out)

I'm struggling to see prolonged hot weather from these charts - the Azores HP is suppressed to the south west (most influential on Control) and is that a nascent mid-Atlantic ridge on JMA? Fortunately ot but there's a lot of northern blocking on GEM which you don't normally see in August. 

It's all a bit slack and a bit of a nothingness for NW Europe and the British Isles. Between the weaker than usual Azores HP and residual heights to the north or north east, the trough extends from the west or north west across the British Isles and into Europe. Slack LP areas and weak troughs keep the weather vaguely unsettled though to no great extent - GEM at this time and JMA further into FI do look more unsettled.

Further into FI and neither GFS OP nor Control offer any prospect of settled weather.  

[Captain Shortwave]

A few more runs like the ECM and I might be starting to get concerned. A slow moving area of low pressure over southern England with plenty of warmth and moisture. I would rather this either tracked further north to give a more traditional showery picture or south and kept us out of this. A good 72 hours from approaching south west England before clearing into the North Sea.

   
 

Day 5 and 7 above. The pattern at leas ton this model looks very messy with the next upstream system dropping into the ridge west of the U.K.