model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The ECM 00z run shows a disturbance on Sunday now with cloud and some showers possible. Hopefully these stay away and don't ruin what should be the best day of summer so far. Certainly goes against other forecasts (BBC/MetO) I've seen which largely go for unbroken sunshine all day in most areas.

There was me thinking my wife’s school was just being out of kilter with the late breakup.

The Arpege has the showers but no impact on temperatures, likely to be isolated with clear skies elsewhere, not unusual for hotter spells.

The ECM is decent with temperatures probably returning close to 30c across central parts with this extending east as the high moves slowly eastwards towards the end of next week. The breakdown is still there but it is slow and likely to feel very muggy with the risk of showers and thunderstorms developing widely by day 9.

[mb018538]

By Sunday the familiar measles rash of showers is back, as another of these pesky shallow troughs is across the UK. Slow moving heavy showers likely again!

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

By Sunday the familiar measles rash of showers is back, as another of these pesky shallow troughs is across the UK. Slow moving heavy showers likely again!

After the heat of the previous week i will take that!!looks delish!!!

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The ECM 00z run shows a disturbance on Sunday now with cloud and some showers possible. Hopefully these stay away and don't ruin what should be the best day of summer so far. Certainly goes against other forecasts (BBC/MetO) I've seen which largely go for unbroken sunshine all day in most areas.

Unfortunately the ECM owned the other models yesterday with its cloud forecasts, so I'm inclined to take it seriously, which when looking at the coming days means some areas of cloud from time to time.

Interesting to see the ECM continues to shift away from the north sea undercut, with temperatures remaining in the mid to high 20s for the majority of next week too, Monday aside, and 30/31C again a possibility by midweek if raw temps are undershooting.

Still haven't given up on a more major plume based on the position of the low to the west.

[Eagle Eye]

Quite possibly from a small lick of the Theta-w an MCS could push through with some elevated storms embedded in as we get closer to this possible event. I suspect that it could be quite like the one on the 16/17th June this year. 

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Quite possibly from a small lick of the Theta-w an MCS could push through with some elevated storms embedded in as we get closer to this possible event. I suspect that it could be quite like the one on the 16/17th June this year. 

Vs GEM which brings the potential for storms a day later through showers that develop with perhaps a very strong storm within there with the CAPE potential for a Supercell but because its loads of Hours out its not going to be anything like that. 

 

[carinthian]

Interesting charts from GFS and ECM. Looks like a repeat process seen over much of the summer. That is of a few days of hot weather associated with the build back of the Azores high over the British Isles followed by a breakdown due to the formation of a upper low that slowly meanders over Southern Britain and eventually affects much of continental Europe.  The normal Atlantic zonal flow has just not happened for now nearly 6 months. Under the continued meridional weather pattern affecting Europe, Scandinavians will see the best of the summer weather with NW of Britain in the main fairing well. Think it is safe to say the blocked pattern remains in charge. Will it continue for another 6 month ?

C

[Frosty.]

This is a pretty decent ECM 0z ensemble mean, sure there’s a brief cool down early next week, especially across the NE but there’s high pressure largely in control bringing a good deal of fine weather with sunny spells. There’s scope for a plume in the mid range too?...my opinion on the longer term outlook is for a rinse and repeat pattern with potential for further Azores high incursions / thundery breakdowns / short-lived cooler showery interludes and then we do it all again through august...well..that’s my hope..charts not all in the correct order..my bad!! ⛈

 

 

[summer blizzard]

So good news and bad news on the breakdown watch front for those of us who want Autumn to arrive early.

The good news is that although a tad more aggressive the GFS, Euro and GEM all agree on a breakdown starting around day 7.

The bad news is that this looks a little slow and protracted with the proper cold front not through until day 9.

The good news of course from this being that we have gone back to a wet and potentially thundery breakdown as we get a front from the south.

 

 

 

 

[Cambrian]

A couple of particularly sultry evenings (ooh err missus) coming up for the weekend, dew points near 20 degrees or above at 8pm Saturday and Sunday across a good part of southern UK and Ireland according to the GFS 06z, driven by stubbornly high humidity levels despite the long sunny days, up around or above 80%. Sticky gussets alert, easing somewhat by Monday. 

Saturday 8pm Dew Points and Humidity 

 

 

Sunday 8pm

   

[Timmytour]

Shades of July finishing in a similar manner to July 1999?  That was succeeded by a very thundery August and I wouldn't be surprised if this August ends up similar.....

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Most of the schools here still have another week to run and don't break up until next Friday 23rd!....could be that the decent weather goes for a Burton just as the kids finish here! Hoping not, my holiday to Dorset on the 31st July will be coming into model view pretty soon, and I'm just hoping I don't get a washout.

Standard weather breaks down in time for school holidays. Many times it has done it. 2018 notably so!

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Interesting charts from GFS and ECM. Looks like a repeat process seen over much of the summer. That is of a few days of hot weather associated with the build back of the Azores high over the British Isles followed by a breakdown due to the formation of a upper low that slowly meanders over Southern Britain and eventually affects much of continental Europe.  The normal Atlantic zonal flow has just not happened for now nearly 6 months. Under the continued meridional weather pattern affecting Europe, Scandinavians will see the best of the summer weather with NW of Britain in the main fairing well. Think it is safe to say the blocked pattern remains in charge. Will it continue for another 6 month ?

C

Is this a symptom of the la Nina promoting more of a mid Atlantic high and allowing weak trough action to take charge from the NW with weak heights toppling in thereafter from the north. Seems a reinforcing pattern. Azores high seems suppressed to the SW this year. Also a very weak Atlantic has allowed for very slow moving trough features and allowed at times for ridging to move NE to pull down colder northerly and north easterly incursions. With this in mind if it continues expect more mixed fortunes for rest of the summer, spells of warm sunny weather but never becoming exceptionally hot and further wet, showery but not especially cool conditions. Theme of the summer as a whole.

[sheikhy]

Latest ukv still going for 30 degrees quite widely across england saturday and sunday!wonder if it will upgrade the heat for monday?!!

[Dangerous55019]

Hello everyone. 
Though I'd add my two peneth worth to this discussion today using the CFS.

Week 1 - 16th - 22nd July: This shows high pressure firmly over the top of us, which is what's been forecast and is indeed happening. 

Week 2 - 23rd - 29th July: This shows high pressure still more or less over the top of us, (albeit slightly weaker) but more out to the Atlantic as well. 

Week 3 - 30th July - 5th August: Well the high pressure has scuttled off to eastern Europe, and out in the Atlantic! So with nothing showing over the top of us here in the UK, its either going to be a weak trough of low(er) pressure, and just sunshine and showers?

Week 4 - 6th - 12th August: Low pressure to the North of Scotland, and a ridge of high pressure over towards the Bay of Biscay. To my amateur eyes I'm saying that we could be in a westerly flow off the Atlantic by then. But as always 4 weeks a way is a long way out in weather terms!

So reading between the lines... This coming week is going to be hot and sunny, with the possible (hopefully thundery) breakdown occurring between the 23rd and the 30th July. Then we go into a more Atlantic driven régime from then on.

As always this is the CFS, so please take it with a gritter load of salt, and if I've read this charts wrong, then I shall offer myself for public beatings and floggings. 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Is this a symptom of the la Nina promoting more of a mid Atlantic high and allowing weak trough action to take charge from the NW with weak heights toppling in thereafter from the north. Seems a reinforcing pattern. Azores high seems suppressed to the SW this year. Also a very weak Atlantic has allowed for very slow moving trough features and allowed at times for ridging to move NE to pull down colder northerly and north easterly incursions. With this in mind if it continues expect more mixed fortunes for rest of the summer, spells of warm sunny weather but never becoming exceptionally hot and further wet, showery but not especially cool conditions. Theme of the summer as a whole.

 I am not sure as to the reason as to the extended period of blocking over Western Europe. There are lots of scientific theories as to what may be causing this but none conclusive as yet.  However, I do know that there has been a prolonged disruption to the normal Rossby Wave pattern into Western Europe for much of this year .

C

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z looks preety stonking, out to Tuesday:

    

My main hope now, is that Autumn stays away until November!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Hello everyone. 
Though I'd add my two peneth worth to this discussion today using the CFS.

Week 1 - 16th - 22nd July: This shows high pressure firmly over the top of us, which is what's been forecast and is indeed happening. 

Week 2 - 23rd - 29th July: This shows high pressure still more or less over the top of us, (albeit slightly weaker) but more out to the Atlantic as well. 

Week 3 - 30th July - 5th August: Well the high pressure has scuttled off to eastern Europe, and out in the Atlantic! So with nothing showing over the top of us here in the UK, its either going to be a weak trough of low(er) pressure, and just sunshine and showers?

Week 4 - 6th - 12th August: Low pressure to the North of Scotland, and a ridge of high pressure over towards the Bay of Biscay. To my amateur eyes I'm saying that we could be in a westerly flow off the Atlantic by then. But as always 4 weeks a way is a long way out in weather terms!

So reading between the lines... This coming week is going to be hot and sunny, with the possible (hopefully thundery) breakdown occurring between the 23rd and the 30th July. Then we go into a more Atlantic driven régime from then on.

As always this is the CFS, so please take it with a gritter load of salt, and if I've read this charts wrong, then I shall offer myself for public beatings and floggings. 

Good summary mate! Word of caution though!! You say 4 weeks out is a very long time!! Trust me 4 hours out is a very long time,when the CFS is involved

No complaints from me from the UKMO 12z run..I like it.

Time to get the beers in folks... and be sun safe! Don't become a prune like me

[Captain Shortwave]

30c still looking possible across the North Midlands tomorrow. High twenties widespread away from western Scotland.

30/31c quite widely on Sunday across England and East Wales.

 

The upper ridge remains through the U.K. for the good part of next week, the UKMO certainly showing a stronger presence.

 

Compared to the GFS

 

That said this is better than previous runs and less bullish about removing this ridge.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

30c still looking possible across the North Midlands tomorrow. High twenties widespread away from western Scotland.

30/31c quite widely on Sunday across England and East Wales.

 

The upper ridge remains through the U.K. for the good part of next week, the UKMO certainly showing a stronger presence.

 

Compared to the GFS

 

That said this is better than previous runs and less bullish about removing this ridge.

Yes, I think this ridge will be blown away less quickly than some are predicting - tends to happen in summer, I think we are moving to a pattern where high pressure has the upper hand, punctuated by low pressure incursions, the very opposite to what is our prevailing pattern in the UK of low pressure dominance with fleeting ridges.  

There is a third pattern of course, 1976, 2018 and other examples, reloading high pressure for a really prolonged period, but I don’t think that option is on the table this year now.  Good UKMO tonight.

[summer blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I think this ridge will be blown away less quickly than some are predicting - tends to happen in summer, I think we are moving to a pattern where high pressure has the upper hand, punctuated by low pressure incursions, the very opposite to what is our prevailing pattern in the UK of low pressure dominance with fleeting ridges.  

There is a third pattern of course, 1976, 2018 and other examples, reloading high pressure for a really prolonged period, but I don’t think that option is on the table this year now.  Good UKMO tonight.

We have actually seen the passage of the final 10C air pushed from Wednesday to Saturday already albeit the breakdown is a slow and messy thursday-sat now.

[Captain Shortwave]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I think this ridge will be blown away less quickly than some are predicting - tends to happen in summer, I think we are moving to a pattern where high pressure has the upper hand, punctuated by low pressure incursions, the very opposite to what is our prevailing pattern in the UK of low pressure dominance with fleeting ridges.  

There is a third pattern of course, 1976, 2018 and other examples, reloading high pressure for a really prolonged period, but I don’t think that option is on the table this year now.  Good UKMO tonight.

The GEM, if anything is better than the UKMO

Looking at next week, Monday restricts the very warm conditions towards the south west but by Tuesday it seems we see mid/high twenties becoming widespread again and with charts like the above, 30c could be possible from midweek.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

Fantastic again from gfs and ukmo!!high pressure and sunny hot in the reliable timeframe!!!

[Methuselah]

Lovely Azores ridge, come T+261:        

[summer blizzard]

GFS tonight sticks to the morning script with a day 7/8 breakdown.

GEM never properly removes the warm air and has what one assumes would be a humid sweatbox.

What they both agree on though is that when the low arrives, it will produce copious amounts of rainfall next weekend.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by summer blizzard