model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[damianslaw]

ECM still doesn't look right to me. Holds low pressure in the same place to the south of Iceland for days.

Also those uppers shown in above look too high. There is a very fine margin between alot of cold to the north of the polar front jet and these are not shown. 

UK looks primed to fall on the boundary of tropical maritime and increasingly cold polar air.. at first we sit firmly on the south side.. but all the signs we will quickly shift places to the north side.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

If you are interested in the jet stream I would humbly suggest a recent, very readable book, by Tim Woollings, called 'Jet Stream'

Thanks for that info k, think I'll ask my library to get it, if not then I'll have to buy it

j

 

[tight isobar]

Classic ENSO neutral state- now being modelled on the raws.@ Pacific thermocline?.. I’d say.. coupled with trade winds/upper layers sit-up=still to be deciphered!.. well for me if we don’t hit not only jackpot Synoptics.. but are bearing them on overhead /ground level.. around our geographical come late November/early December.. I think I’ll give up the ghost!.. for an early shot of notable cold.. I fail to see/ recall such a positive position to be in (forever) if you’re of cold weather persuasion.. the Atlantic will imo be all but in complete shutdown.. by mid/late November!!!...  keep watching

[Daniel*]

I thought I would return from summer hibernation, silly season is approaching  

EPS indicating very little suggestion of colder weather in next 2 weeks I’m struck by how widespread the positive anomalies are, into early November signal for cooler NW’ly airstream pushing in across British Isles with temps returning closer to normal, maybe a glimmer of hope for a broader pattern change on way across Europe.

[tight isobar]

Further we’ll have a much clearer view from 11 November , when the CPC have their discussion/review on the Nina state-situ.. and possible global winter ramifications ... ciao fa now

Edited October 22, 2021 by tight isobar

[johnholmes]

31 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I thought I would return from summer hibernation, silly season is approaching  

EPS indicating very little suggestion of colder weather in next 2 weeks I’m struck by how widespread the positive anomalies are, into early November signal for cooler NW’ly airstream pushing in across British Isles with temps returning closer to normal, maybe a glimmer of hope for a broader pattern change on way across Europe.

Is it possible to slow the sequence down please?

[Methuselah]

Och well, as the thread's buzzing with so much hyperactivity, I thought I'd post the GFS 06Z operational run. To calm things down a tad. You understand!

    

    

    

At least it'd keep the brakes on fuel bills!

Edited October 22, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 07/10/2021 at 15:47, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

starting on the PV side of things toward the end of the runs currently signs of displacement I'm definitely no stratospheric expert but warming in October I believe is a rare beast 

   any impact on our weather from that remains to be seen but a possibility, onto the main part of my post. MJO phases 4 + 5 in October also raises some interest  that's the route I'd expect to start appearing in the charts through the next few weeks or so, possibly around three - four weeks early for my personal snow hunt beginning but should the blocking manifest like that the move into winter might begin on a fascinating setup. 

Little update can see that setup showing through the next couple of weeks with UK low and higher pressure which looks focused around Greenland also works well with this tweet 

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well, as the thread's buzzing with so much hyperactivity, I thought I'd post the GFS 06Z operational run. To calm things down a tad. You understand!

    

    

    

At least it'd keep the brakes on fuel bills!

Wow Ed I need a whisky  after viewing the 6z..dulls the horror..thankfully it’s still autumn !  

Edited October 22, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

There’s some cold potential in early November from the GEFS 6z! ….oh how I wish we had northern Finland’s climate!.. it would be yeah, minus 15 max and heavy drifting snow..meh yeah woteva pfft..let’s go skiing ⛷ …  

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Ok looking at the GEFS 6z mean long term, this isn’t the wintry nirvana that….erm…u k coldies crave, darn it, more mild carp to endure in all probability? … ..but hang in there coldies, we will have nirvana?..possibly before the meteorological winter begins?! …let’s just relocate the uk into the arctic circle and then we will all be happy…hmmmmm!?  

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Ok looking at the GEFS 6z mean long term, this isn’t the wintry nirvana that….erm…u k coldies crave, darn it, more mild carp to endure in all probability? … ..but hang in there coldies, we will have nirvana?..possibly before the meteorological winter begins?! …let’s just relocate the uk into the arctic circle and then we will all be happy…hmmmmm!?  

At this rate, we'll soon be looking at the NAVGEM!

[Dorsetbred]

On 22/10/2021 at 16:48, jon snow said:

Ok looking at the GEFS 6z mean long term, this isn’t the wintry nirvana that….erm…u k coldies crave, darn it, more mild carp to endure in all probability? … ..but hang in there coldies, we will have nirvana?..possibly before the meteorological winter begins?! …let’s just relocate the uk into the arctic circle and then we will all be happy…hmmmmm!?  

Jon, you are person with a lot of patience, the early suggested cold looks to be a dream, as you are showing there's a lot of mildness to endure first based on those charts, before we see anything even slightly COOL..

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Froze were the Days]

Locked in warmth...ECM showing the same, where were these synoptics in Summer? we would have all been melting.

[Ali1977]

Early days to be worried about the cold, mid Nov should start showing signs of some blocking off the back of the mini Strat warming, hopefully the blocking is located perfectly for the U.K.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Jon, you are person with a lot of patience, the early suggested cold looks to be a dream, as you are showing there's a lot of mildness to endure first based on those charts, before we see anything even slightly COOL..

 

You make a good point there, I can’t disagree, lots of mildness..etc etc..BUT..winter is coming..I predict DEC 1st!  

[Frosty.]

I’ll have P28 please, GEFS 12z..nuff said..yeah I’m a coldie!  

[Ali1977]

The Day 12 GEFS mean is starting to build on North Atlantic heights.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 chart is an interesting setup as we move into November:

Northerly blast for all but the south, and look at the other pieces of the jigsaw, Aleutian low and potential Atlantic ridge, suggests to me it could set up a pattern for the longer term, but that’s one for a different thread at this stage.  

[Froze were the Days]

October 1987 on the ecm 12z run...similar synoptics with a rapidly deepening low moving through the Bay of Biscay, no doubt will be gone by the morning.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 chart is an interesting setup as we move into November:

Northerly blast for all but the south, and look at the other pieces of the jigsaw, Aleutian low and potential Atlantic ridge, suggests to me it could set up a pattern for the longer term, but that’s one for a different thread at this stage.  

Yes direction of travel is for the Atlantic trough to shift east and dig deep into Scandi allowing for mid Atlantic heights and a flow from the NW, and a cold one to boot.

[Premiere Neige]

14 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Jon, you are person with a lot of patience, the early suggested cold looks to be a dream, as you are showing there's a lot of mildness to endure first based on those charts, before we see anything even slightly COOL..

 

If I remember, cold winters don't very often follow cold October's so probably wouldn't want a cold October if you're after a cold winter...

[Methuselah]

48 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

If I remember, cold winters don't very often follow cold October's so probably wouldn't want a cold October if you're after a cold winter...

That is of, course, true. So is the fact that cold winters rarely follow mild Octobers, either? Oh bugger, winter's over!

And another utterly gripping GFS 00Z!

    

    

    

So, certainly less in the way of locked-in warmth. But great for lovers of cold rain:

  

Edited October 23, 2021 by Ed Stone

[ICE COLD]

Becoming a bit more interesting on the op runs after the last few days of boringness. Also not looking as mild as it was next week . Nice seasonal end to the ECM

Edited October 23, 2021 by ICE COLD

[SLEETY]

Signs now of very much colder weather arriving,little too far out at the moment ,so hope to see some consistency in the runs in the next few days.