model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Cambrian said:

I don’t like wasps at all. I’ve been stung twice in the last two days. So I have to take it easy this afternoon, and take some antihistamines with several glasses of wine. It’s a real bind, absolutely terrible way to spend a Sunday afternoon. But it appears there is some good news on the way, as wasps become much less active below 10 degrees.

Dawn temperatures for the next few days from 0z ECM.

Monday 7am, you can run (fly), but you can’t hide.

 

Tuesday 7am, single figures for most to start the day, haven’t seen that so widely for a while.

 

Wednesday 7am, single figures pretty much across the board, low single figures in parts.

 

Hahahahahahaha. 

Yes saw some wasps today. Very late in the season.

 Next few days will see to them.. 

[Frosty.]

Wow it’s so busy in here! …anyway, moving swiftly on, if there is a water shortage anywhere in the u k…there won’t be if the Gfs 12z operational is anything close as it shows deluge after deluge after deluge!  ?  

[MP-R]

On 26/09/2021 at 19:48, jon snow said:

Wow it’s so busy in here! …anyway, moving swiftly on, if there is a water shortage anywhere in the u k…there won’t be if the Gfs 12z operational is anything close as it shows deluge after deluge after deluge!  ?  

So true. Words can't describe how uninspiring the outlook is unless you like dull and wet!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

So true. Words can't describe how uninspiring the outlook is unless you like dull and wet!

For sure it’s not benign which is my idea of boring…there’s a lot going on if you like active weather! ️ 

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 12z operational is a generally very unsettled run and I noticed yet another ex tropical storm making it into the North Atlantic later in the run so there’s uncertainty about the longer term outlook?..but no uncertainty about the week ahead which is unsettled (cyclonic) and mostly on the cool side…certainly feeling like autumn ?  

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, yes it’s unsettled for much of the next 10 days..but..perhaps tentative hints of something less unsettled, at least across the south developing during early October?

[Newberryone]

52 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The ECMWF 12z operational is a generally very unsettled run and I noticed yet another ex tropical storm making it into the North Atlantic later in the run so there’s uncertainty about the longer term outlook?..but no uncertainty about the week ahead which is unsettled (cyclonic) and mostly on the cool side…certainly feeling like autumn ?  

 

 

 

 

Yes Karl, medium term shows a newly awakened Atlantic after a pretty lengthy hiatus. However I’m left wondering if this ex tropical storm that’s shown in the latter stages of this run could possibly ensure that this upcoming unsettled spell will not be prolonged. Tentative signs that this particular system could quite possibly bring about a new surge in high pressure from the Azores. One to watch!!

[MP-R]

On 26/09/2021 at 19:56, jon snow said:

For sure it’s not benign which is my idea of boring…there’s a lot going on if you like active weather! ️ 

If there’s plenty of sunshine then I’d agree, but I fear probably not. Also, relentless rain and wind is no good for anything. Would quite like some autumn colours before the trees are stripped of their leaves lol.

I just hope these spells of colder air behind lows bring some traditional sunshine and shower convective days with impressive cloudscapes. Wednesday looks like a good day this week!

[Zenarcher]

Good evening, everyone! It's time for today's average model outlook,

Temperatures will return to average levels next week, making it cooler and more unsettled. Heavy rain will persist in eastern Scotland and England on Monday before clearing towards the North Sea. Sunny spells and brief showers, especially in the west, make for a significantly cooler day for all. At first, Tuesday will bring a combination of sunshine and showers, however later in the day, an area of low pressure will bring stronger winds and heavy and continuous rainfall to all regions. On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will develop, resulting in a calmer, drier day with sunshine.

  

The weather will remain unsettled from Thursday through to the weekend, with another low pressure system on the way from the Atlantic, bringing wind and rain with it, so expect more of the same for the first few days of October.

   

From Monday, October 4th, to Wednesday, October 6th, most models show the weather remaining unsettled, as has been the trend for the past week, but when I last updated on Friday, the long term outlook did hint at some more settled weather as we moved further into October, and this appears again this evening, especially for the Southern parts, but it could just be a brief break from the wind and rain before the next round of low pressure systems arrive.

  

Latest amination, 27th Sept to 6th Oct (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.) 

These pictures are from windy.com and show the maximum gusts expected over the next 10 days (from the ECM model) , with most areas seeing 30 to 40 mph and more exposed places and coastal areas getting 50 to 60 mph.

Plenty of rain too, with most areas receiving 50 to 70mm during the next 10 days, but some areas, particularly in the West, might receive up to and beyond 120mm.

Edited September 26, 2021 by Zenarcher

[ICE COLD]

Let the winter chase begin. Petty cold for October ( yes it’s only one ensemble in the GEFS ) but it’s a start . 

[Frosty.]

A pretty unsettled Gfs 0z operational with plenty of rain and occasionally windy with temperatures well down compared to where they were last week when it felt summery, indeed, temperatures slide below average at times but it’s not raining all the time, there is a window (albeit brief) of quieter dry conditions later in the run but still feeling very autumnal. ?  

 

[Frosty.]

A generally very unsettled (cyclonic) ECMWF 0z operational and also cool for much of the time, just a bit of transient ridging across the south from time to time…very autumnal compared to recently but we are almost on the cusp of October so it shouldn’t be that surprising should it?    

[minus10]

39 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let the winter chase begin. Petty cold for October ( yes it’s only one ensemble in the GEFS ) but it’s a start . 

Yes it feels like Autumn has entered the room now. A squall line just passing through here to reinforce the change....

[Frosty.]

This is better from the Gfs 6z operational, albeit low res but surface conditions would be approaching summery again across southern u k further into October?!  

[MP-R]

On 27/09/2021 at 12:14, jon snow said:

This is better from the Gfs 6z operational, albeit low res but surface conditions would be approaching summery again across southern u k further into October?!  

Yes please! Over the years there have been many warm spells in October after initial autumnal weather e.g. 2018, 2014, 2013, 2008-2011 etc. This might be a more plausible outcome with the aid of tropical storms as has helped out September. We'll need a respite for a little while after such a wet coming 10 days.

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yes please! Over the years there have been many warm spells in October after initial autumnal weather e.g. 2018, 2014, 2013, 2008-2011 etc. This might be a more plausible outcome with the aid of tropical storms as has helped out September. We'll need a respite for a little while after such a wet coming 10 days.

October often delivers a late blast of warmth, but with a much weaker sun and less daylight such events rarely feel especially warm.

[Northwest NI]

On 27/09/2021 at 13:38, damianslaw said:

October often delivers a late blast of warmth, but with a much weaker sun and less daylight such events rarely feel especially warm.

Agree, I can’t put my heart and soul in warmth after September. It starts to feel wrong, like the cold that comes after end of March.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Agree, I can’t put my heart and soul in warmth after September. It starts to feel wrong, like the cold that comes after end of March.

I agree, the weakening and lowering sun, autumnal decay  etc etc..blah blah,  but 22c that the Gfs 6z operational is showing towards mid October would be really quite something!  

Edited September 27, 2021 by jon snow

[Don]

38 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I agree, the weakening and lowering sun, autumnal decay  etc etc..blah blah,  but 22c that the Gfs 6z operational is showing towards mid October would be really quite something!  

Not these days it isn't! 

[Cambrian]

12z GFS operational at 144h through to 150h

Oof!
 

  

[sundog]

21 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS operational at 144h through to 150h

Oof!
 

  

That would be a  very autumnal feel and on my birthday, just the way I like it. 

[Zenarcher]

29 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS operational at 144h through to 150h

Oof!
 

  

Yep, looking very stormy, according to the GFS, inland gusts across much of England and Wales would be around 60 mph if that happened,

With gusts of up to 70 mph in parts of East Anglia,

On Sunday, the ICON model also predicts a deep low,

With gusts of up to 75 mph for coastal areas and up to 55 mph further inland,

 

Although it is still possible that it will disappear or be downgraded closer to the time, it is something to keep a watch out for 

Edited September 27, 2021 by Zenarcher

[Frosty.]

I’m not sure what the technical term is so I will simply call these snow / snaw blobs on the Gfs 12z operational?!…  

Edited September 27, 2021 by jon snow

[ICE COLD]

Wow where did that storm come from on the gfs at T144 . Gales and extremely wet

[weirpig]

41 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow where did that storm come from on the gfs at T144 . Gales and extremely wet

Yep that's brought me out of my slumber. 60+mph inland touching 80 across the wash.  Close to storm Doris speeds there. One to watch  icon also similar

Edited September 27, 2021 by weirpig