model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[knocker]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

It has to be said that on this occassion, the Anomaly charts DONT look like being very accurate, its only fair that i flag this up as im quick to do so on the numerous occassions they are accurate.

Indeed mushy. To my untutored eye down to not picking up the more intense amplification of the Euro high and thus the deconstruction of the upper trough to the west of Ireland. And to be fair the models have ben struggling with this over the last few days

Edited September 2, 2021 by knocker

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Indeed mushy. To my untutored eye down to not picking up the more intense amplification of the Euro high and thus the deconstruction of the upper trough to the west of Ireland. And to be fair the models have ben struggling with this over the last few days

deconstruction!

Who on earth introduced this expression.

A trough fills, warms out, but ...

I suppose it comes from the USA?

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Indeed mushy. To my untutored eye down to not picking up the more intense amplification of the Euro high and thus the deconstruction of the upper trough to the west of Ireland. And to be fair the models have ben struggling with this over the last few days

TBH im a bit annoyed with myself, the models were suggesting that this current rather intense high pressure to our near North was going to weaken significantly as it started to track Eastwards. It wont, its now going to simply move to our East but retain its strength. I shouldnt have believed the models and anomalies that suggested such a rapid weakening, i thought it was fishy, should have trusted my instinct and experience because i dont think very strong highs do just weaken significantly in just a few days... i may be wrong..

[knocker]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

deconstruction!

Who on earth introduced this expression.

A trough fills, warms out, but ...

I suppose it comes from the USA?

 Jo

I don't know where it originated John but I notice some of the younger British forecasters (not METO) use it. Perrhaps split upper trough better.

Edited September 2, 2021 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Looking at the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles has one suspecting that the operational run's second 'heatwave' might never happen. Who knows?

    

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

It's good to see the GFS 06Z operational run continue suggesting a warm outlook. Though, it's a tad 'alarming' seeing the chance of a naughty, nasty northerly polluting the tail-end! 

    

    

    

Oh, and, as an aside, today's unrelenting veil of cloud is a little thinner than yesterday's was. 

Ah the classic southerly come northerly switch around.. very common to go from a long drawn southerly to a long drawn northerly all indicative of a highly meridional flow.. but less common this time of year than any other time. September not renowned for its northerlies..

[mb018538]

Fairly sensational UKMO run tonight. Where were all of these charts during summer?!

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Fairly sensational UKMO run tonight. Where were all of these charts during summer?!

Such a shame as these charts would easily be mid to late 30s in july!!it would be extreme record breaking heat!!better late than never i suppose!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Most definitely better late than never...and can still pack a punch in early September! Amazing temperature contrasts from the UK out towards Greenland...late burst of Summer anybody?? Live it,large it,get the deckchair out for one last oiling...your body's that is.

Edited September 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mb018538]

UKMO staying very warm out until Thursday…

[sheikhy]

Any update on gfs 12z??!!!!

[summer blizzard]

GFS goes for a day 6/7 breakdown.

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any update on gfs 12z??!!!!

Yes indeed, it’s looking very summery for a big chunk of next week with temps into the 80’s F..followed by a thundery breakdown! … ⛈  

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Fairly sensational UKMO run tonight. Where were all of these charts during summer?!

Yes ..

Warm for many one would hope.

 

[Scorcher]

GFS looks a bit suspect after midweek- I reckon it will be on the unsettled side of the mean after Wednesday.

That low that drops down towards the Bay of Biscay magically moves north again late on Wednesday- seems slightly odd.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Nice charts I agree, but just wait for all the usual model downgrades & frowngrades in the next day or so. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Nice charts I agree, but just wait for all the usual model downgrades & frowngrades in the next day or so. 

 

Mate...im gonna send you a signed video on how to think more positively...Trust me it works.

Repeat after me....IT WILL NOT DOWNGRADE...IT WILL NOT DOWNGRADE!

I think its pretty much nailed that next week will be much more summary and very much warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 

Mate...im gonna send you a signed video on how to think more positively...Trust me it works.

Repeat after me....IT WILL NOT DOWNGRADE...IT WILL NOT DOWNGRADE!

I think its pretty much nailed that next week will be much more summary and very much warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wait till the ecm with one heck of a downgrade when everything has pushed east and the plume is over the continent instead!!!!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just wait till the ecm with one heck of a downgrade when everything has pushed east and the plume is over the continent instead!!!!

Sofa so good!  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96, who would have thought a few days ago we’d be seeing charts like this at T96:

Much better angle on the hot uppers down south of us on this one.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120:

Should see those +16s sweep the UK in the next couple of frames.  

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96, who would have thought a few days ago we’d be seeing charts like this at T96:

Much better angle on the hot uppers down south of us on this one.

Waiting for that BOOM 120 hour chart mate?!!!!!!this looks better than the gfs so far?!!

Scrap that waiting for your 144 hour BOOM chart instead now!!!

Edited September 2, 2021 by sheikhy

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, and that’s as far as I’ll go given uncertainty, low now edging closer so potential for fireworks:

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

GFS looks a bit suspect after midweek- I reckon it will be on the unsettled side of the mean after Wednesday.

That low that drops down towards the Bay of Biscay magically moves north again late on Wednesday- seems slightly odd.

It is about the only way it can go as the energy hits the blocking ridge

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS goes for a day 6/7 breakdown.

Could be a significant thundery breakdown with all the build up of humid heat.. may even develop a heat low of sorts from the SW ahead of the trough.. summer going out with a bang perhaps?