model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mb018538]

On 06/08/2021 at 14:45, JayAlmeida said:

The GFS runs are looking really bad today from start to finish. They seem to have backtracked on the HP domination we saw over the last few days (especially FI range). The 00z GEM and ECM are looking way better but any sustained HP is past day 7. 

The model output is really struggling to predict a consistent improved pattern for mid month and beyond. 

Again - it isn’t that surprising really. I never bought into the building high pressure scenarios that were being thrown out a few days ago. Just expect the next fortnight in august to follow a similar trend of mainly unsettled, with a brief ridge here or there to improve the odd day or two, until perhaps an improvement towards the last 7-10 days…

Edited August 6, 2021 by mb018538

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

GFS 12z has been marked for the recycle bin. Summer is well and truly over if this run verifies. Northern blocking right where we dont want it.  August quickly turning out to becoming one of the poorest in the past 20 years of poor Augusts.  Hopefully an outlier 

Goodness me, what a shocking run, that would poor anytime from October-February let alone summer. 
 

Apart from the odd decent day thrown in between lows the model output has been persistently poor for 3days now, summer is pretty much done and anything later in the month will only potentially be a token gesture. A likely 9 months of garbage ahead now. 

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z makes me think we're destined for more of the same. So, warm enough and sunny enough for keeping my suntan topped-up:

    

    

    

Suntans and other selfish considerations aside, my main concern is that slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms won't be welcomed by cereal farmers.

[Frosty.]

Och well, at least next Wednesday afternoon looks nae bad according to the Gfs 12z op...for the majority!! ...apart from that...erm..yeah...next

  

 

[Singularity]

  

The 12z ECM is not without interest, developing very warm conditions in southern parts and sustaining them through the weekend and into the week after.

The way it drops a cut-off low down west of Europe is eerily reminiscent of the trigger for last year's (intense in the south) August heatwave.

For some insight on what makes this sort of outcome at all feasible despite a background that favours a more limited amount of dry or very warm weather, I've made a Twitter thread on the connection to AAM, following a summary of how it connected to our weather patterns in July:

 

[Frosty.]

I would guess that with uppers (850’s) like the ECM 12z op is showing across the south during days 9 & 10 that 30 / 32c would be possible depending on sunshine amounts...the 0z had some very warm potential too but this is an upgrade on that..who knows, perhaps there will be some happy members in here later next week!?...  

[Methuselah]

IMO the GEFS 12Z ensembles don't look all that disastrous -- reasonable temperatures and not overly wet. But, I have to admit that they don't show one of those seldom-seen 'when ar were a lud' August heatwaves either! 

    

    

Edited August 6, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Mike Poole]

Love the ECM 12z this evening.  

That is more like it, and a million miles away from the GFS 12z run - which I will gloss over.  

Will be interesting to see where it sits in the clusters later.  

[Scorcher]

Guys there is far too much despondency in here today. Yes the models are not showing the sort of pattern we want to see in August, but I always find that people place too much emphasis on the overall pattern and forget that nice days are still possible in the sort of setup showing for next week.

I've certainly seen a lot worse than what is being shown for next week. Within this overall unsettled regime there is still scope for decent conditions at the surface from time to time, and even some very warm/hot days that can arise without much notice- particularly further south.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread at T240:

There are obviously members that have the trough parked over the UK for sure, but on the spread the area of uncertainty in the Atlantic suggests to me that evolutions like the ECM op are possible too.

Earlier, spread at T144:

At this more reliable stage looking quite settled in the south east.  

[Frosty.]

Even the Gem 12z wasn’t a million miles from something potentially very interesting at the end...when you look what’s to the south!    

Edited August 6, 2021 by jon snow

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all

I know that the ICON is a lesser model to the superior three kings but it backs up the latest ECM 12z and keeps most of the low away from the UK,...c'mon

let's see what the 18z gfs throws out.

[ChannelThunder]

I really like that ECM run; it's warm, slack and has the potential to get really interesting and thundery perhaps.

[Mike Poole]

Early doors on the pub run, but we can see some changes, here 12z T108 compared with 18z T102:

Looks like it will follow the ECM from here, with the low remaining in the atlantic.  

[Frosty.]

Perhaps the idea of a much warmer incursion from the near continent next weekend isn’t quite dead in the water?...certainly NOT the form horse  but when has that ever stopped a rank outsider from winning!!!!?... ⛈  

 

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

Could something be brewing out in the Atlantic? 20C T850s for Bournemouth? 

    

Well, not quite. And it is an outlier. Who'd a'thunk it! Och well -- lose some, lose some more?

    

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

On 06/08/2021 at 07:09, bluearmy said:

the handling of next week trough still presenting some issues on the ops as they jump clusters - ukmo day 6 is now a stall but it looks isolated (ec about 25 mins away) and it’s ukmo day 6 which continues to anecdotally display poor continuity compared to its day 5. 
 

expect we will know how changeable and unsettled next week will actually be by Sunday. 

The Ukmo stall from yesterday’s 00z run seems to have had some merit then.  Beyond that, whilst some of the ops are keen to cut the trough off into week 2 and build the euro upper ridge into nw Europe, that’s the smallest eps cluster. 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z operational is still flirting with some occasional continental warmth across the s / se later next week so perhaps I was right to mention earlier about it’s slim chances with regards the GEFS 0z!..eventually the ecm goes Pete tong but I don’t think this was ever going to amount to much...still, a week is a long time in politics.. ...I mean the weather!!!  

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by jon snow

[kold weather]

Looks like we are about to enter the type of pattern that holds pretty much the full range of options depending on exactly where the LP sets up shop (the further west it can stall out the better, but we do run the risk of another limpet low over our shores as well should it get east enough.)

Before that though it looks like a wet, maybe very wet weekend for some, followed by a somewhat direr spell early next week (especially the further SE you go)  though maybe still with rain at times further NW.

Definately a chance of something hot, probably a higher chance of something at least more settled especially for the SE. However still the most likely solution looks like weak LPs being somewhere close enough to keep fronts/troughs swinging into the general region beyond next week.

Im still hopeful for the 3-4th week of August, though again I think it will be an improvement rather than anything to noteworthy in its own right.

[Methuselah]

Were the GFS 06Z to be 'on the money', it looks like we are in a rut, but with chances of something drier 7 warmer getting slightly better, as time goes on. Unless that ex-hurricane thingie throws a ginormous spanner into the works?

    

    

    

Will the ridge verify? 

[summer blizzard]

The upper low from last night seems to be a little more developed and further east today. Notably the Euro and GFS have enough connection to force a almost northerly.

 

 

GEM differs but is currently an outlier.

 

 

[Weather vane]

Helloooo, is that ridge getting the better of that low ???

 

[Mark wheeler]

Hmm Ukmo looks ok for the south.  to my untrained eye anyway . 

[mb018538]

I’m going to be selfish and say the UKMO is good tonight in my part of the UK for Wednesday to Friday. I’m entitled to seeing as the SE has been so wet all summer  To be fair it’s fairly decent in many parts of the UK.

Edited August 7, 2021 by mb018538

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hmm Ukmo looks ok for the south.  to my untrained eye anyway . 

Definitely a good chance of a NW/SE split developing from midweek onwards, might be a pattern change coming just in time to save summer for England/Wales