model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Can I ask please what you mean by "Modern August" ?

We’ve just had a lot of dull wet and unsettled August’s in the last 20 years. It’s lagging way behind June and July for decent months.

[DAVID SNOW]

On 27/07/2021 at 20:00, Mike Poole said:

Think I’m going to bow out for a while, folks, not really due to the weather model prospects, which are largely towards average summer fayre rather than anything cataclysmal, although ECM T240 looks grim:

Think summer will pick up going further into August.

Just tired of posting, see you in the run up to winter…we will see…

 

You'll be back very soon Mike posting about the models ,  if not tomorrow, then the next day.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

You'll be back very soon Mike posting about the models ,  if not tomorrow, then the next day.

Not this time, unless things change in here.  

Edited July 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking at the main anomaly charts tonight it does look Autumnal  but don't be fooled by these as they are just a broad brush from the ens suit,...sunshine and showers springs to mind,not overly cold or hot,...just standard UK weather if you ask me

we are still in summer and there is plenty of time for things to change,...fingers crossed,...XXX

at least we have had some welcome rain here today that i have not seen for some considerable time,..welcome  

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[MP-R]

In an attempt to lighten the mood, and purely for fun, the CFS has the right idea for August with plenty of wandering high pressure around after next week, and even ends with a more traditional September.

     

I think we have to accept that conditions will be rather less than seasonal or quite unseasonal at least until next weekend, but from recent runs, I'm pinning my hopes on ridging from the 09th onwards. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Dull and autumnal, sunshine hours here in August have reduced massively in the last 15yrs, I can’t remember but it’s something like 15% down on the 61-90 & 71-00 averages. 

August statistically has always been duller than June and July and more often than not May.. also wetter on average, quite often notably so. I'm never surprised to see unsettled conditions in August, expect them more than any point since March.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

August statistically has always been duller than June and July and more often than not May.. also wetter on average, quite often notably so. I'm never surprised to see unsettled conditions in August, expect them more than any point since March.

I know it’s duller than May-July but the average august sunshine has dropped dramatically in comparison to the august values in the 60s-00s, I think this has affected parts of the south especially strong, will big out the stats. 

[mb018538]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

August statistically has always been duller than June and July and more often than not May.. also wetter on average, quite often notably so. I'm never surprised to see unsettled conditions in August, expect them more than any point since March.

That’s probably more to do with diminishing daylight hours than anything else. It only averages 4-5mm more ppn a month than June or July, so it’s not a huge difference…..it just feels like it’s a lot more than that a lot of the time!

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That’s probably more to do with diminishing daylight hours than anything else. It only averages 4-5mm more ppn a month than June or July, so it’s not a huge difference…..it just feels like it’s a lot more than that a lot of the time!

There are regional differences. Further north and west it is alot wetter than preceding 4 months. 

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone 

Just thought I'd add my 2 peneth worth with the weekly CFS charts.
Now for some reason these didn't update yesterday, so these are a day old... But the latest info that's available.

Week 1: 27th July - 2nd August - Low pressure over the UK and also slightly too our east, with high pressure stretching out over Greenland and the North Pole. 

Week 2: 3rd - 9th August - Low pressure still over the UK but also stretching over towards Scandinavia, and (although weaker) stretching across the Atlantic and into North Western Canada! The Azores high out in the Atlantic.

Week 3: 10th - 16 August - Low pressure centred over and just slightly to the north of Scotland. The Azores high heading out into the Mediterranean. 

Week 4: 17th - 23rd August - There looks to be a signal for the Azores high to be out to our South West, also high pressure over Eastern Scandinavia, and heading into Russia. Nothing immediately obvious over us here in the UK, so read into that what you will. 

My personal take on this is August is looking unsettled, and dare I say autumnal? Now I know that's not what most  folk on here what to see, but I can only say what I'm seeing, and remember this is the CFS. 


 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This feels like the lonely Winter chase again.. where is everyone!

Captains log...im holed up in a squalor,I'm completely isolated,it's breezy and cloudy,showers are forecast to pep up thorough the day. The next few days remain unsettled,towards mid next week things could be even more grim with Low pressure glued to the UK like to a blanket!

I'm not giving in know matter how isolated,as long as the power remains on,and the tea bags remain in good supply I'll keep on plugging away!

And guess what signs of an improvement towards the 2nd week of the new month! I'll grit my teeth and bare it...send me a fax...an E mail...anything,i need support from the community

Edited July 28, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

 the average august sunshine has dropped dramatically in comparison to the august values in the 60s-00s, I think this has affected parts of the south especially strong, will big out the stats. 

Have you got any actual stats to support that?... it would be interesting..

Since 2003 Augusts have been poor, below what we would expect but the main thing is.... every decent july we have had, has failed to continue into August... 06, 13, 18, now 21...

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looking at the main anomaly charts tonight it does look Autumnal  but don't be fooled by these as they are just a broad brush from the ens suit,...sunshine and showers springs to mind,not overly cold or hot,...just standard UK weather if you ask me

 

 

If its any consolation, the NOAA charts own confidence rating is very low, only 2/5 for the 6-10 day and 1/5 for the 8-14 dayer. So there is room for improvement, i say improvement because i dont think they could get any worse!

[Northwest NI]

First two weeks of August last year was glorious but I accept that that was unusual. Because of the warm air moisture relationship, it always seems to be torrential in August. 

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

First two weeks of August last year was glorious but I accept that that was unusual. Because of the warm air moisture relationship, it always seems to be torrential in August. 

The heat yes, but nothing unusual about the weather being better earlier on in August. It quite often deteriorates after midmonth and some of the worst August weather has been timed for the Bank Holiday weekend at the end.

All eyes on today's runs. I'm still holding out for ridging from the 09th/10th onwards after next week's low (which is already looking less blown up than some previous runs).

[Timmytour]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

August statistically has always been duller than June and July and more often than not May.. also wetter on average, quite often notably so. I'm never surprised to see unsettled conditions in August, expect them more than any point since March.

In terms of average daily max temps, this is how July and August split into four quarters fare, ranked 1-4 (or Hot to Cold) in terms of the warmest

 

The warmest period is split fairly evenly between the first three quarters, with the first half of August just pipping the first half of July for second place.

However there is a slight tendency for the second half of August to be warmer than the the first half of August in the years where the second half of July is the warmest quarter, as it is nigh on certain to be this year.  That said, when the second half of July is the warmest, the first half of July is the coldest as often as the two halves of August combined. 

Got a feeling however this year, looking at the models, we are heading for a 2-1-4-3  pattern similar to 2001

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Have you got any actual stats to support that?... it would be interesting..

Since 2003 Augusts have been poor, below what we would expect but the main thing is.... every decent july we have had, has failed to continue into August... 06, 13, 18, now 21...

This is from Hurn airport where records go back to 1969. I’ve only got downloaded to 2017 but the August drop is bordering on alarming. Sorry for the picture I downloaded the records to my work PC for some reason…

 

[Methuselah]

The outer limits of today's GFS 06Z suggesting the potential for an improvement come mid-August . . . there'll be a lot of water passing under many a bridge before then, however:

    

    

    

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Have you got any actual stats to support that?... it would be interesting..

Since 2003 Augusts have been poor, below what we would expect but the main thing is.... every decent july we have had, has failed to continue into August... 06, 13, 18, now 21...

While it's true that August bar 20 has failed to generate the hot dry summer month you'd expect (18C average for August is once every ten years), we have actually had plenty close to average so it's not that we are getting poor August's any more than you'd historically expect (the 70-10 period is the anomoly) or even less average, we are just missing one or two hot months.

The late summer collapses even in notable summers are probably more notable albeit the Met Office last year did make a video showing a decadal summer NAO cycle that is correlated well to rainfall and our current phase was similar to the 60's.

[bevo]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

This is from Hurn airport where records go back to 1969. I’ve only got downloaded to 2017 but the August drop is bordering on alarming. Sorry for the picture I downloaded the records to my work PC for some reason…

 

Is that showing sunshine hours?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, bevo said:

Is that showing sunshine hours?

Yes.

[bevo]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Yes.

That is shocking but something I concur with here on the south coast. I’d never recommend booking a holiday in August - just never that great anymore and I pray I’m proved wrong this year!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 6Z mean keeps with those signs of High pressure eventually having more of an influence towards the 10th of August...so the means and the 46 are flagging this up now,and perhaps Glosea from the met...Worth a check of the update,the signal remains for more settled,and now there is an increasing chance of Hotter spells developing through the month also! Not very often that gets mentioned these days beyond mid month! 

Edited July 28, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Wimbledon88]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

This is from Hurn airport where records go back to 1969. I’ve only got downloaded to 2017 but the August drop is bordering on alarming. Sorry for the picture I downloaded the records to my work PC for some reason…

 

That's very interesting that. 

Its amazing when folk make the effort to dig out the truth it can be found. 

I might have a look at the records for London but I concur, Augusts have been atrocious recently and this forthcoming one is looking no better. 

[Guest]

53 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

That's very interesting that. 

Its amazing when folk make the effort to dig out the truth it can be found. 

I might have a look at the records for London but I concur, Augusts have been atrocious recently and this forthcoming one is looking no better. 

I think if i remember rightly I pulled back the numbers for somewhere else further east and the drop wasn’t quite so dramatic, which under a south westerlies you’d sort of expect. We seem to get stuck under these moist airmasses in august for days on end driving spells of zero sunshine.