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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Just now, tomp456 said:

    Don't you have a real, proper date with mother nature this evening? Priorities, n all. 😉 

    That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want) 😳

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    Posted
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/misty sunrises/
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
    30 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Yep that is usually the problem. Although I was thinking I would be seeing cells erupting initially around the Channel Islands/Cherbourg area, so it is a bonus that there is instability backed even further west than that. 

    Yeah that's quite far west ATM, good luck if your out later. 🌩️

    The lack of data over the continent may be giving us a surprise...

    Edited by Sprites
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want) 😳

    I take it she doesn’t frequent this forum 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want) 😳

    ooh-matron.thumb.jpg.2c41322ce88c5088dd63693f75fcab50.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want) 😳

    No flashing and bangs in the night your way tonight then!! Might be safe for some to have their cameras out after all ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset

    So humid here in the South West. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    its soupy out there. Office sitting at 29 degrees. Can't wait to get home and have a cold shower.

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    those cells firing over cherbourg definitely heading well east to me up towards Brighton.

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
    9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want) 😳

    I feel your pain!

    One will always let you down. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Mid level flow is coming from about 205degrees currently so just N of NNE. 

    A trough is stretching from East Dorset to the Brest Peninsular and to be honest the cells firing in northern France are probably surface based a look a bit messy, although the radar is pixelated somewhat there. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    My first foray into the storms thread for 2021, and it is looking good I think for some action tonight.  I always like a probabilistic take on things when there is lots of uncertainty around, so here’s cumulative precipitation to lunchtime tomorrow from the PEAROME ensemble suite 9z, at the 6%, 50% and 94% of the probability distribution:

    D5F2C451-F023-4728-BA44-165051BF2243.thumb.png.d3be8185c85198d71138091df0bc684b.pngB2A9F1EF-88CD-4635-BD47-753DA78C03C7.thumb.png.7eda1cc91139c307fc98cec4eb904c39.png69BA3B41-D1B0-42CA-AD14-63AB7A1DDE4E.thumb.png.2849e8ecd20b7c01a07db25f423dc9aa.png

    London and surrounding area and towards Kent looks most favourable, but significant likelihood of something as far west as Swindon maybe.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

    4B6097BE-F01D-4765-8654-B8C78B7D8632.thumb.jpeg.ee58d6a598b6947707c7e635afded346.jpeg

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    As Alderc, tagged in a previous tweet seem good positivity coming through from UkWeatherWorld about tonights prospects! Those storms in N France almost moving direct northerly, maybe NNE at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

    4B6097BE-F01D-4765-8654-B8C78B7D8632.thumb.jpeg.ee58d6a598b6947707c7e635afded346.jpeg

    yea i would say so. It was always going to be Kent, Sussex, Essex area anyway. Not sure why people were getting exicted over it being further west

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

    4B6097BE-F01D-4765-8654-B8C78B7D8632.thumb.jpeg.ee58d6a598b6947707c7e635afded346.jpeg

    Come on Chris, you know better than this than to call game over before the event has even started really😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
    3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

    4B6097BE-F01D-4765-8654-B8C78B7D8632.thumb.jpeg.ee58d6a598b6947707c7e635afded346.jpeg

    wow, I'm literally just to the right of the line, on the coast. 

    There is no storm food in the sky yet.....

    heat and humidity have increased in the last hour!

    High cloud around Portsmouth area is visible! 

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Stacks of AC Cas in the sky here, doesn't look game over to me just yet at least!

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk

    I think these cells will die off in the Channel, if i'm not mistaken that the storms need to be elevated in nature therefore it wont be for another couple of hours yet and would explode in the channel as they wont be affected by sea temps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Come on Chris, you know better than this than to call game over before the event has even started really😉

    I know, but the radar imagery gives a lot away though, I’ve never seen new storms form ahead of those messy type returns. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex
    2 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

    wow, I'm literally just to the right of the line, on the coast. 

    There is no storm food in the sky yet.....

    heat and humidity have increased in the last hour!

    High cloud around Portsmouth area is visible! 

    Keeping my fingers crossed for us in Worthing. It usually just misses us to the east, and Brighton get it. But hopefully we’ll be lucky tonight. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
    Just now, steveh19 said:

    Keeping my fingers crossed for us in Worthing. It usually just misses us to the east, and Brighton get it. But hopefully we’ll be lucky tonight. 

    Even if we didn't get a direct hit, Brighton is still a good place as we'll still be able to see the lightning and hear the thunder 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk

    as suspected these are SB storms and dieing off, nocturnal cooling along with high DP will cause the storms to develop just wait till 7ish

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Phwoar, it’s been a while since I felt a warm southerly breeze like this. All Cu field at the moment here, nothing yet in the mid levels (although that’s to be expected) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex
    1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

    Even if we didn't get a direct hit, Brighton is still a good place as we'll still be able to see the lightning and hear the thunder 😉 

    Very true. Just head to the beach, we have a great view out to sea and of Brighton. 

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