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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    5 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    That last time happened to be July 2019, didn't it? That is still the last time I even saw a nighttime CG. A whole two years! Everything crossed for tomorrow!

    Done my dissertation on elevated convection on this case study, will never forget. Was a classic Spanish Plume event, where we developed a home-grown MCS.

    23lightning.thumb.png.3e7a36304b15af2e7775ecc0b501647e.pngradar.thumb.png.2ac89b95ecb67fc35445c1cb7b951cf0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    20 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    That last time happened to be July 2019, didn't it? That is still the last time I even saw a nighttime CG. A whole two years! Everything crossed for tomorrow!

    Nah I think I'm talking about a few years before. We ended up with a great big country wide storm. More or less. Was supposed to be a sw only thing, but when it lit up just off the coast in the SW, suddenly everywhere else along the coast start lighting up, and the whole system went north.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    17 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Done my dissertation on elevated convection on this case study, will never forget. Was a classic Spanish Plume event, where we developed a home-grown MCS.

    23lightning.thumb.png.3e7a36304b15af2e7775ecc0b501647e.pngradar.thumb.png.2ac89b95ecb67fc35445c1cb7b951cf0.png

    Yep that why I know I'm not talking about the one, the on I'm talking about didn't miss Kent lol. It was in 2014 or 15 I think 

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Yep that why I know I'm not talking about the one, the on I'm talking about didn't miss Kent lol. It was in 2014 or 15 I think 

    There was this one: 19th July 2017.

    2871F819-BD35-4085-A01E-5A40BBF46DB5.thumb.jpeg.19e5a3fad75c2990b4b63b0d415b4bc0.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    There was this one: 19th July 2017.

    2871F819-BD35-4085-A01E-5A40BBF46DB5.thumb.jpeg.19e5a3fad75c2990b4b63b0d415b4bc0.jpeg

    Yep that it. It had record lightning amount for the UK, then about a week later, there was another storm Kent clipper channel MCs that had constant lightning for hours started about 2am, was preceded down here by two other decent storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    There was this one: 19th July 2017.

    2871F819-BD35-4085-A01E-5A40BBF46DB5.thumb.jpeg.19e5a3fad75c2990b4b63b0d415b4bc0.jpeg

    Awesome night that was, but it was also a very different atmosphere too - we had widely 1,500 to 2,500 J/Kg MUCAPe right across the south. 
     

    Still, am hopeful for some storms Friday night and maybe again Saturday.

    B0CF6BBB-B9A9-4579-9092-383750DBBC7E.jpeg

    E45745B7-3527-4287-8B3D-E351B1757724.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
    33 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Yep that why I know I'm not talking about the one, the on I'm talking about didn't miss Kent lol. It was in 2014 or 15 I think 

    There is this one too that affected a lot of the country and gave Bournemouth a very impressive display, the evening of July 3rd overnight into the 4th July 2015.

    image.thumb.png.9b8f525320656a2dd7665cf350774a9d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

    That sounds perfect actually, there is always stuff east of the main disturbance, infact last time something looked like a just SW event, the whole country lit up from the south coast upwards.

    Having checked the rest of the comments, I can safely say that this happens every two years now lol, 2017,2019,2021?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Having checked the rest of the comments, I can safely say that this happens every two years now lol, 2017,2019,2021?

    Can add July 22-23 2013 to the list too, although there was also July 17-19 2014 in between - so  a good run of thundery spells then. Most notable is the regularity of the dates, often around the same time in the month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, MP-R said:

    Can add July 22-23 2013 to the list too, although there was also July 17-19 2014 in between - so  a good run of thundery spells then. Most notable is the regularity of the dates, often around the same time in the month. 

    Well we do have a noticeable weather pattern most July's and its happening again. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    Not good to see the southward adjustment of this weekend's low on the gfs and Icon. If this continues France will get the majority of the action.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Well we do have a noticeable weather pattern most July's and its happening again. 

    Indeed. At least 2013, 2014 and 2019 didn't spell the end of summer. Summer 2017 never fully recovered after that storm outbreak, and 2015 never truly got going in the first place lol.

    Wouldn't mind a 2017 rerun - although it was the May storms that year that took first place in my locale!

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    2 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Not good to see the southward adjustment of this weekend's low on the gfs and Icon. If this continues France will get the majority of the action.

    Does the high stay instead? 

    I feel we've been hot long enough lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: storms lightning thunder
  • Location: Southampton

    Just noticed these clouds popping up to my north. 

    16269492178442228324545455397806.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)
    1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

    Does the high stay instead? 

    I feel we've been hot long enough lol.

    The high slowly erodes but the thundery low tracks further south (mainly over France) and then moves north over the north sea. Still some action for the southeast in particular but only a day or so ago it looked a much more widespread event as the low was projected to be further north. 

    It looks like we will have an light easterly flow on Saturday and a northerly on Sunday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    15 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Well we do have a noticeable weather pattern most July's and its happening again. 

    In my lifetime, particularly as a kid in the 90s, I always associated might time storms with July and August (not saying obviously they didn’t happen in May, June or September). 

    I’m not sure how much of an ‘event’ this weekend will be, but it’s very pleasing there’s potential. Better that than being stuck under a mid Atlantic ridge bringing cool north westerlies for weeks on end.

    Worth stressing also (as I think has been already) these setups are always hit and miss and unpredictable.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Looks pretty much the same as it did a few days ago on the UKV:

    viewimage.thumb.png.939a65be263f61ab65a2bab77bb437f8.png 1010977543_viewimage(1).thumb.png.39661b016a1fdce0bd94e46b9e16c76c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
    13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Looks pretty much the same as it did a few days ago on the UKV:

    viewimage.thumb.png.939a65be263f61ab65a2bab77bb437f8.png 1010977543_viewimage(1).thumb.png.39661b016a1fdce0bd94e46b9e16c76c.png

    The pattern of activity in those images looks depressingly familiar.  Frequent lightning anchored to the French coast and a rapid northwood expansion of light convective rain across southern England.  

    @ancientsolar there is a marginal possibility of some homegrown action:

    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

     

    Edited by Chris Lea-Alex
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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    NMM consistent with a squall/MCS moving in Somerset/CS England. UKV showing a line of heavy showers/thunderstorms but maybe not quite as intense. AROME/EURO4 relatively the same theme too. Think we would favour from having the low a bit furthest west though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton
    24 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

    what are the prospects for more home grown storms today ? Similar to yesterday ?

    Very slim chance

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Already 27.8°C here and feeling crazy hot! Thank God I’ve got AC.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

    North of here

    IMG_20210722_120323.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    40 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

    what are the prospects for more home grown storms today ? Similar to yesterday ?

    The Pennines, Peak District and the Snowdonia NP are most at risk thanks to low-level convergence and upslope flow aiding ascent.

    More info here: 

    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

    image.thumb.png.abb303446515e54e10a53aff30f80976.png

    Edited by Steel City Skies
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill
  • Location: Bexhill

    well today is an odd one. temp says 22 feels like 26 - feels more than that.

    Humidity 65 - sorry but my melting skin says otherwise

    dew point 15. 

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